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June 2022


bluewave
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Major changes continue on the all the models particularly the GFS which had us in chilly weather June 18th-19th and now we're mid-upper 80s if not 90. Map features adjusting by anywhere from 300 miles to 1500 miles a good argument to pay no attention.

WX/PT

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6 hours ago, FPizz said:

little over .5 here.  About 2am one of the loudest thunders I've ever heard woke me up.  It sounded like a bomb landed in my back yard. 

Same here. Sounded like my house was under attack

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm, though a little cooler than today. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend.

Excessive heat is sending temperatures soaring in the desert Southwest. Through 2 pm MST, Phoenix had recorded its 20th 100° day of 2022. Normal through June 9th is 16.0 days. Phoenix, which set a daily record high minimum temperature of 84° today, will very likely see readings of 110° or above through the weekend. Some record high temperatures are possible.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +8.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.757 today.

On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.709 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.847 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.7° (0.7° above normal).

 

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The heavy thunderstorms this morning caused an unusually large temperature error even by NYC standards. The wet vegetation growing over the sensors combined with the deep shade for one of the biggest temperature spreads of the season. Probably water dripping  onto the thermometer combined with strong transpiration cooling the temperature under the trees.

EWR….87°

LGA…..85°

NYC….81°

JFK….84°

ISP…..86°
 

 

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The heavy thunderstorms this morning caused an unusually large temperature error even by NYC standards. The wet vegetation growing over the sensors combined with the deep shade for one of the biggest temperature spreads of the season. Probably water dripping  onto the thermometer combined with strong transpiration cooling the temperature under the trees.

EWR….87°

LGA…..85°

NYC….81°

JFK….84°

ISP…..86°
 

 

Yeah the high here yesterday was 85

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 83°

Philadelphia: 81°

The weekend will be variably cloudy. Some showers and thundershowers are possible.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.7°; 15-Year: 81.9°

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Latest extended forecasts maintain the comfortable June temperature pattern for us. Near record heat heads for the Great Lakes next week. But we stay cooler with more onshore flow. One of the first times in mid-June that temperatures well into the 90s near the Great Lakes didn’t progress into our area. So an unusual 500 mb and surface pattern for us. The ridge is still forecast to remain to our west even as we pass the solstice. So while we can always pick up a stray 90° at places like Newark, no major 95°+ heat like we had in late May anytime soon.


558BA1B1-3799-4A8E-8713-B620E519CC17.thumb.png.95de07e8a681c01655215da7f8ef38e7.png

2DF82D51-16A3-4974-900F-6B2C4659FA99.thumb.png.caa9e7475e1194273473739b12ad54d4.png

E3E4BFDB-51D3-445C-997C-B4E13F4DC03A.thumb.png.1fcef9a025e9c25111182bd02c6945bf.png

 

Can't really complain about this sort of pattern in June! Low to mid 80s is great. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(65/83) or +2.

Reached 83 here yesterday.

Today: 77-82, wind w., m. sunny, some clouds late, 64 tomorrow AM.

64*(71%RH) here at 7am.       70* at Noon.        73* at 1pm.       Reached 82* at 5:30pm.       75* at 10pm.

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I think the coming ridge will overperform.. switching to +EPO today for the first time in a while, expect temps to go a little higher. Strong NAO correlation with same-state weather, so a +NAO first could keep us cooler, then a ridge tries to move as models have the NAO switching to negative (keeping ridge suppressed).. I don't think it will suppress the ridge. We hit 98* June 1st with -NAO, this one may do the same ~+day9-13

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting how June high temperatures are following past instances when Newark reached 98°or higher in May. All the years had a lower monthly maximum temperature in June. The May maximum temperature was actually the warmest of the whole year. But in this warmer era, it wouldn’t take much to make it to 98°or higher in July or August.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Season
1996 99 92 91 92 92 99
2022 98 87 M M M 98
1992 98 90 97 95 90 98
1987 98 96 97 97 87 98
1962 98 94 96 93 87 98

won't take much to beat 87 ...add 10 to that before July...

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Latest extended forecasts maintain the comfortable June temperature pattern for us. Near record heat heads for the Great Lakes next week. But we stay cooler with more onshore flow. One of the first times in mid-June that temperatures well into the 90s near the Great Lakes didn’t progress into our area. So an unusual 500 mb and surface pattern for us. The ridge is still forecast to remain to our west even as we pass the solstice. So while we can always pick up a stray 90° at places like Newark, no major 95°+ heat like we had in late May anytime soon.


558BA1B1-3799-4A8E-8713-B620E519CC17.thumb.png.95de07e8a681c01655215da7f8ef38e7.png

2DF82D51-16A3-4974-900F-6B2C4659FA99.thumb.png.caa9e7475e1194273473739b12ad54d4.png

E3E4BFDB-51D3-445C-997C-B4E13F4DC03A.thumb.png.1fcef9a025e9c25111182bd02c6945bf.png

 

That’s really help out with my electric bill

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2 hours ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

Ok we're definitely talking about the same crack since I live on the south side of town. I'm by Vacchiano. 

I'm right near there, down the road a bit near the streetlight before on 202.  I can pretty much walk to the new brewery

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