Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z HRRR rakes the MCS to our south closer to the better instability. Forms in north Dakota tomorrow Nam is well south of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Rainy Sunday but slowly clear after noon. Onto the week we should see temps near normal but Tue (6/14) - Wed storms (6/15)ahead of building ridge and eventual transient heat 24-26 hours Thu (6/16) -Fri (6/17). Next shot at 90s as strong ridge and heat build into the GL and Midwest this week. Onshore flow will limit heat west of the coast but west flow could force through ahead of the cold front on Friday. The brief heat will be followed by a cooler but drier Fathers day weekend as it looks now but its a but unsettled with trough into the Northeast Sat (6/18) - Wed (6/22). Beyond there the ridge is building into the Rockies and Plains pushing east by Tue 6/21. Next signal for warmth would be Th 6/23 as it looks in the long range. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Really pumping on this ridge/-NAO connection.. could break 100* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 70 and moderate rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Rain done for day? 0.02 on day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Check out the +NAO/cooler connection again.. I can see this lasting into the Winter (best chances for good Winter is 13-14, 14-15 type setup) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today. Current temp 70/DP 65/RH 85% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 missed all the rain today here so far...cloudy and 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Looks like we will go into July without a official heatwave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 It looks like about 6/20 we have a big pattern change to hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 I expect the ridge to keep amplifying.. Galveston broke old monthly records by 3° then Anchorage did the same. It's like 10 straight days in Dallas of 102+. When the western1/2 drought breaks, I expect well above average in that area when the cycle swings back dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 this looks realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will go into July without a official heatwave ewr is +3.5 for the month so far with no 90s. that's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Still not a drop of rain today. Keep thinking there's thunder outside, but it's West Point doing artillery drills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12, 2022 Author Share Posted June 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr is +3.5 for the month so far with no 90s. that's crazy First no 90s while having 9 or more days reach 80° from June 1st to 11th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jun 1 to Jun 11 Maximum Temperature 1 2022-06-11 10 87 - 1967-06-11 10 91 2 2020-06-11 9 91 - 1995-06-11 9 91 - 1994-06-11 9 92 - 1992-06-11 9 90 - 1973-06-11 9 95 - 1962-06-11 9 91 - 1961-06-11 9 90 - 1959-06-11 9 95 - 1952-06-11 9 90 - 1933-06-11 9 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: this looks realistic Landcane? 995….. that would be truly impressive if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 73° high today with 0.25" rain this am...month running a +1.5° temp departure so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: First no 90s while having 9 or more days reach 80° from June 1st to 11th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jun 1 to Jun 11 Maximum Temperature 1 2022-06-11 10 87 - 1967-06-11 10 91 2 2020-06-11 9 91 - 1995-06-11 9 91 - 1994-06-11 9 92 - 1992-06-11 9 90 - 1973-06-11 9 95 - 1962-06-11 9 91 - 1961-06-11 9 90 - 1959-06-11 9 95 - 1952-06-11 9 90 - 1933-06-11 9 99 I often forget our first average 80F+ temperatures aren't until mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I often forget our first average 80F+ temperatures aren't until mid June. The 80° day records at Newark since the super El Niño have been more impressive than the 90° day records. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 1990 03-13 (1990) 86 10-14 (1990) 83 214 1945 03-16 (1945) 81 10-19 (1945) 82 216 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170 1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-02 (1977) 93 142 2002 04-16 (2002) 92 09-09 (2002) 91 145 1976 04-18 (1976) 93 08-23 (1976) 90 126 1941 04-20 (1941) 91 10-06 (1941) 90 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably warmer. The remainder of the week will generally see somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures. Out west, additional high temperature records were tied or broken. Records included: Abilene, TX: 109° (old record: 106°, 1942) Cheyenne: 92° (tied record set in 1956) Phoenix: 113° (old record: 112°, 1918, 1933, 1936, 1974 and 2019) Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 101°, 1918) San Antonio: 105° (tied record set in 1942) This heat will move into the Great Lakes region for a brief time during midweek. Temperatures from Chicago to Detroit could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. However, the core of the heat will not likely move into the Northeast. As a result, New York City will likely see temperatures peak in the middle and upper 80s. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +8.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.066 today. On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.231 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.4° (0.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Through Friday, temperatures will be generally above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Ensembles reverting back to omega high structure Very cool father's day weekend coming up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 It barely rained here (again), .04". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 2 am was action time in Hastings. Lot of rain, woken by thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Just now, the_other_guy said: 2 am was action time in Hastings. Lot of rain, woken by thunder Yup it rained here and it seemed hard but it was only for a very short time. I heard the thunder south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 16 hours ago, Allsnow said: Looks like we will go into July without a official heatwave I kept hearing about a rainy cold pattern and doom and gloom. Yet in 10 days i only have about .53. Plus the weather has generally been beautiful the past 2 weeks with many sunny days and 80s. Another winner this week! Still running above normal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2022 Author Share Posted June 13, 2022 Rainfall amounts are usually quite variable when we rely on convection this time of year. Some parts of the region have had a good soaking. Other spots have found ways to miss out on the best rainfall. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.69 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 3.59 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.00 NY SYOSSET COOP 2.77 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2.42 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 4.77 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 3.81 PA MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.68 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 3.61 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.56 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(65/83) or +1. Month to date is 70.0[+0.7]. Should be 71.6[+1.0] by the 21st. All three 10-day Ensembles look very similar: Reached 73 here yesterday. 67*(97%RH) here at 7am. 68*(97%RH) at 8am{variable FOG} 74* at Noon. 76* at 3pm. Reached 84* around 7pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 inch of rain last night, anyone have a radar loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Rainfall amounts are usually quite variable when we rely on convection this time of year. Some parts of the region have had a good soaking. Other spots have found ways to miss out on the best rainfall. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.69 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 3.59 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.00 NY SYOSSET COOP 2.77 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2.42 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 4.77 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 3.81 PA MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.68 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 3.61 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.56 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.50 Wow, I'm 12 miles from KDXR and I'm at 1.2 for the month so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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