binbisso Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Looks like significant warming taking place in regions 3.4 and 4. Sub surface looks warm as well in those regions. Did we pass the spring barrier yet to try and see what enso state we will be in for the fall and winter? Tried to get current sub surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 71degs.(62/80) or -1. Reached 76 here yesterday. Today: 75-80, wind w., m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM. 90's keep getting pushed further into the month. Allow me to introduce the Re-Incarnated Twin Towers. The MOS is whacked on the GFS. 65*(45%RH) here at 7am. 12z gfs now has upper 40s the morning of the 18th lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 3 hours ago, winterwarlock said: What a great stretch of early summer weather! We're a few degrees above normal and look to stay that way. The only thing we're avoiding is the 90+ excessively hot/humid weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 12z runs all have decent rains Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: 12z gfs now has upper 40s the morning of the 18th lol The models are definitely in a state of flux and I suspect large scale changes will continue to occur over the next several days. The difference in heights on the west coast from model to model is significant and has an impact on what happens in the east. I suspect a piece of the big heat ridge will break off and move east then there'll be a cold front then another piece breaks off and moves east and so on until we get into a little more sustained heat during July. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 6, 2022 Author Share Posted June 6, 2022 Latest extended EPS expands the ridge from the Rockies to the Plains this month. Has troughs near the Pacific Northwest and New England. So a different 500mb pattern than last June. Jun 6-13 Jun 13-20 Jun 21-27 Jun 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 that second half of june pattern would send some intense heat pulses our way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 115F in Phoenix mid-June, pretty great correlation to July-Aug above average eastern 2/3 like 0.70, or it will happen next July-Aug(2023), I say 0.90 one is above average(10yr5yr) two-years considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 Some nice severe maybe 2nd half of June. Looks like a ring of fire setup 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 The weather will become somewhat more unsettled over the next several days. Temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend. Excessive heat is likely to develop in the desert Southwest late in the week. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +31.35 today. That surpassed the daily record of 26.50, which was set in 2008. It was also the 10th highest daily figure on record for June. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.776 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.181 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 2.011 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We're a few degrees above normal and look to stay that way. The only thing we're avoiding is the 90+ excessively hot/humid weather. 83 degrees felt great today with the low humidity. This was a spectacular 3 day stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 5 hours ago, binbisso said: Looks like significant warming taking place in regions 3.4 and 4. Sub surface looks warm as well in those regions. Did we pass the spring barrier yet to try and see what enso state we will be in for the fall and winter? Tried to get current sub surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: The models are definitely in a state of flux and I suspect large scale changes will continue to occur over the next several days. The difference in heights on the west coast from model to model is significant and has an impact on what happens in the east. I suspect a piece of the big heat ridge will break off and move east then there'll be a cold front then another piece breaks off and moves east and so on until we get into a little more sustained heat during July. WX/PT Yeah now the gfs has mid 90s in the 18th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Can you find where the Twin Towers stood only this morning? I did not alter as a joke. GFS MOS is a joke on it's own. A loss of 79 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 17 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 1993 was the last time that NYC had 3 days in a row reaching 100°. The new ASOS was installed in November 1995. That’s around the time that the tree growth began to block the sensors. So NYC hasn’t been able to get 3 consecutive 100° days since then due to the cool in the deep shade and the cooling influence of the leaf transpiration. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html For the third consecutive day, temperatures in New York City exceeded 100 degrees -- something that had not happened since 1948. Just before 3 P.M. Central Park recorded 102 degrees, tying the record for the day, set in 1936. At Newark International Airport, it reached a record 105, the fourth straight day of triple-digit heat recorded there. Do you think the heat of 1999 was underestimated? July 1999 had some amazing heat, 20 90 degree days and 2 days over 100! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase. Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 81° Additional rain is likely tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 77.2°; 15-Year: 77.2° Newark: 30-Year: 79.1°; 15-Year: 79.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 81.0° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2022 Author Share Posted June 7, 2022 Looks like the major heat will remain to our west the next few weeks. So very comfortable temperatures for the area. The upper 90s record heat at the end of May will remain the warmest temperatures for a while. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 The next 10 days are averaging 72degs.(64/81) or Normal. Reached 76 here yesterday. Today: 71-75, wind w. to s., clouding up, rain by 9pm. 65*(80%RH) here at 7am. 69* at Noon. Reached 70* at 3pm. 67* at 8pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7, 2022 Author Share Posted June 7, 2022 12 hours ago, CIK62 said: I did not alter as a joke. GFS MOS is a joke on it's own. A loss of 79 degrees. That’s why vendors shouldn’t be extending those operational raw GFS temperature charts beyond 5-7 days. It’s much better to use ensembles when looking at week 2 patterns. Notice how the OP GFS forecast skill falls way below the ensemble means after day 7. The other problem is that there is no bias correction for the NYC ASOS raw temperature forecasts tucked in under the dense tree growth. The raw model doesn’t know that the ASOS is in deep shade during peak heating hours. So the raw GFS forecasts are always going to be unrealistically high for NYC. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/ EPS is highest scoring long range ensemble forecast. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/ 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 What’s up with this weird shower formation off shore? Radar glitch or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 The weather will remain fairly unsettled into at least the first half of the weekend. Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain tomorrow. It will likely be a bit warmer. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend. Excessive heat will develop in the desert Southwest by Thursday or Friday. Phoenix will likely see its first 110° or above temperatures of the year. During 1961-90, Phoenix averaged 15.9 110°+ days per year. For the 1991-20 base period, that number has increased to 20.8 days. During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +28.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.421 today. On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.946 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 2.179 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.7° (0.7° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Any thoughts as to heavy rainfall potential tomorrow into early Thursday? Northern NJ, e PA, lower Hudson valley look prime to see 2-4 inch totals (over 24-36h). Maybe more like 1-1.5" in NYC metro. That earlier question about radar echoes -- looks legit from satellite, developing feeder bands into the developing low. That low is why I think there could be locally heavy rainfalls, frontal wave likely to develop near MD/PA border moving towards TTN and EWR, areas north of its track would see heaviest amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 On 6/6/2022 at 12:54 PM, binbisso said: Looks like significant warming taking place in regions 3.4 and 4. Sub surface looks warm as well in those regions. Did we pass the spring barrier yet to try and see what enso state we will be in for the fall and winter? The ENSO forecasts from the various models are indicating a continuation of the La Niña background state into the fall. But our winter sensible weather always comes down to how much blocking we get. So we’ll probably have to wait at least another year for the fabled El Niño modoki. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 the nam lost its over amped idea for thursday and soaks nyc nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 The theme has been wet here dry to our north so I'd be surprised if we didn't get soaked on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 38 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the nam lost its over amped idea for thursday and soaks nyc nw I like this look more from 18z rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will yield to sunshine. It will be warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 86° Philadelphia: 86° Rain and thunderstorms are likely tonight into tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 77.5°; 15-Year: 77.5° Newark: 30-Year: 79.4°; 15-Year: 79.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.0°; 15-Year: 81.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8, 2022 Author Share Posted June 8, 2022 Interesting how the deeper low for early Thursday is leading to a weaker storm than originally forecast for the weekend. New runs Old runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(65/83) or +2. Reached just 70 here yesterday. Today: 76-81, wind w. to nw. to s., p. sunny, variable, rain by tomorrow AM, 70degs. 70*(99%RH) here at 7am. 77* at Noon. 81* at 3pm. 83* at 4pm. Reached 85*at 7pm. 73* at 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8, 2022 Share Posted June 8, 2022 Warm day ahead of the next portential soaker later overnight and into Thu (6/9). Then trough swings through Fri (6/10) - Sun (6/12). Ridge does build east transiently by the middle of next week Wed (6/15), and pending on onshore flow, some areas could grab a quick 90. Beyond there the ridge looks to build into the MidWest and setup outer edge of the ridge into the area with potential storms and easterly flow around the ridge into fathers day weekend. Beyond there heights and a piece of the western / MW heat ejects east and pushes a more westerly flow towards the 20th. Overall near normal temps with chance at some heat 6/15 (inland) and after fathers day weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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