June 2022

[FPizz]

.85" total.  

[bluewave]

This -AO block is the 2nd strongest on record for the month of June. It came in just behind the all-time June record of -2.921 set in 1992. Hopefully, some of this rubs off on next winter like it did after June 2009.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

02Jun2022

-2.6465

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii
 

-2.921….6-29-92

-2.646….6-2-22

-2.610…..6-25-87

-2.510…..6-7-55

-2.470…..6-8-51

-2.406…..6-29-09

 

[SnoSki14]

Second strongest AO block and we still can't get below normal temperatures.

Once the blocking lifts we're gonna fry.

[Eduardo]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Second strongest AO block and we still can't get below normal temperatures.

Once the blocking lifts we're gonna fry.

Yeah this is what I'm thinking too.  Crossing my fingers that this robust blocking returns during the winter.

[BucksCO_PA]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This -AO block is the 2nd strongest on record for the month of June. It came in just behind the all-time June record of -2.921 set in 1992. Hopefully, some of this rubs off on next winter like it did after June 2009.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

02Jun2022

-2.6465

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii
 

-2.921….6-29-92

-2.646….6-2-22

-2.610…..6-25-87

-2.510…..6-7-55

-2.470…..6-8-51

-2.406…..6-29-09

 

During 1992 the highest temps of year (tied & outright) at Allentown, Newark, Central Park. Islip & JFK occurred in May. At PHL & LGA only one day, 7/14 was hotter than the May max.

[doncat]

0.58" yesterday and 0.19" overnight.... May total here was 6.29" btw.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models were lucky to get the forecast right a day or two in advance during the 70s and 80s. Then the Euro did really well with the March 1993 storm of the century and January 1996 blizzard. 

Sometimes the Euro seasonal can do well with a 3 month forecast like it did last summer. But winter seasonal forecasts have much less skill. Probably too difficult to get the state of the polar vortex and MJO correct very far in advance. 

AI may need to be added to the models to have a chance at pushing beyond the 2 week limit. 

I didn't think the forecasting was that bad in the 1980s.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This -AO block is the 2nd strongest on record for the month of June. It came in just behind the all-time June record of -2.921 set in 1992. Hopefully, some of this rubs off on next winter like it did after June 2009.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv

02Jun2022

-2.6465

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii
 

-2.921….6-29-92

-2.646….6-2-22

-2.610…..6-25-87

-2.510…..6-7-55

-2.470…..6-8-51

-2.406…..6-29-09

 

 

Given it is likely to be a similar La Nina to last winter that is unlikely

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

During 1992 the highest temps of year (tied & outright) at Allentown, Newark, Central Park. Islip & JFK occurred in May. At PHL & LGA only one day, 7/14 was hotter than the May max.

Back In the colder era, all previous 98°+Mays like this year at Newark were the highest temperature of the whole year. So that used to be a front-loaded heat signal. Last year the highest temperature of the season  was in June. Then the monsoon came and we had a rare near seasonable July. 
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
1996	99	92	91	92	92	99
2022	98	71	M	M	M	98
1992	98	90	97	95	90	98
1987	98	96	97	97	87	98
1962	98	94	96	93	87	98

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2021	96	103	97	99	91	103

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2021	78.8	0
2020	80.8	0
2019	80.6	0
2018	78.2	0
2017	77.3	0
2016	79.9	0
2015	79.0	0
2014	77.0	0
2013	80.9	0
2012	80.8	0
2011	82.7	0
2010	82.3	0

[hudsonvalley21]

15 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Getting close to a inch now. @winterwarlock how much did you get? 

Total of 0.91 yesterday.

[forkyfork]

if it were up to me the metro would be under a flash flood watch and a svr tstorm watch

[KEITH L.I]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models were lucky to get the forecast right a day or two in advance during the 70s and 80s. Then the Euro did really well with the March 1993 storm of the century and January 1996 blizzard. 

Sometimes the Euro seasonal can do well with a 3 month forecast like it did last summer. But winter seasonal forecasts have much less skill. Probably too difficult to get the state of the polar vortex and MJO correct very far in advance. 

AI may need to be added to the models to have a chance at pushing beyond the 2 week limit. 

I was around in the 60's where heavy snow warnings became partly cloudy the next day.Two to three day forecasts was a reach back then like monthly or seasonal forecasts are now.

[ILoveWinter]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if it were up to me the metro would be under a flash flood watch and a svr tstorm watch

Yea supposed to go to the Yankee game tonight but having second thoughts 

[Snowlover11]

pouring here

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if it were up to me the metro would be under a flash flood watch and a svr tstorm watch

Isn't it geared further south today

[Brian5671]

Wet run of the euro next 10 days with 3-4 inches of rain region wide.

[winterwx21]

Steamy out there with the dewpoint at 69 right now. Weekend looks spectacular with low humidity and 80 degree temps.

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Isn't it geared further south today

Slow moving storms in north jersey again impacting the same places that got alot of rain last night

[hudsonvalley21]

 A quick 0.69 in 30 minutes that developed basically overhead. 

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wet run of the euro next 10 days with 3-4 inches of rain region wide.

We have a pretty nice drying out period after the rain tonight into tomorrow morning though. No rain friday afternoon through monday. Maybe some rain coming back on tuesday.

[Eduardo]

36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Isn't it geared further south today

Was supposed to be, but the radar's looking pretty juicy for the Metro area! 

[Stormlover74]

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

I was around in the 60's where heavy snow warnings became partly cloudy the next day.Two to three day forecasts was a reach back then like monthly or seasonal forecasts are now.

The Alden difax model forecast charts low resolution back in the 80s was like trying to read an etch a sketch. Then you had the paper jams to deal with. Plus the models were really primitive compared to what we have today. 

By the 90s, the Euro really improved and scored a big win with the January 1996 blizzard.

 

THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4).
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF."

 

[nyrangers1022]

30 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 A quick 0.69 in 30 minutes that developed basically overhead. 

We literally just got done paving Hudson street in village of Cornwall , about 15 minutes before the deluge

[KEITH L.I]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Alden difax model forecast charts low resolution back in the 80s was like trying to read an etch a sketch. Then you had the paper jams to deal with. Plus the models were really primitive compared to what we have today. 

By the 90s, the Euro really improved and scored a big win with the January 1996 blizzard.

 

THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4).
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF."

 

Only two models in the 70's..the LFM and PE..The PE went out 84 hours..That was long range back then lol

[Intensewind002]

Storm over the sound/nassau looks like it’s falling apart as is tradition 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Given it is likely to be a similar La Nina to last winter that is unlikely

Modoki El Niño’s with 50” of snow and colder than average winters have become an endangered species for Central Park. 

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Storm over the sound/nassau looks like it’s falling apart as is tradition 

Yea, died out. Still some T and L, but just some moderate rain

[jm1220]

Just some light rain here with occasional thunder. Nassau is the place to be for this batch.

[dWave]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

It looked wild looking uptown from around wtc. Home station in bx showed 1" in 20 mins, most if it in the first 10 mins.