June 2022 temperature forecast contest (includes summer 2022 max contest)

[Roger Smith]

The June temperature forecast contest requires predictions of the anomalies in F deg (relative to 1991-2020 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

and the summer max contest asks you to predict the highest temperatures of the year at these nine locations. 

Deadline is 06z Wed June 1st. 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0        1.0        1.0      1.5     2.0        1.0      1.0      1.0

 

104    101       99         97      105   110       97        121      90

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.2      1.4        1.6        0.5      1.2     1.8       2.0     2.0     -0.5

 

98      97         96       97       98      100       96     118      92

[StormchaserChuck!]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

3.2     3.2        2.4        1.5     2.0     0.5       3.3     3.2     2.1

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.3      0.7       0.8      -0.8     0.1     0.4        0.2     2.0     -0.3

 

104      100     101       100     99    105        100    118     92

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.6        0.6      0.2        0.1      0.4    0.7      1.3        2.4     0.0

 

101       100        98       99      100    106       99       119     93

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.1      +1.2     +0.9     +0.2   +0.9   +0.5   +0.5   +0.7    -0.2

 

99      99        97       102      102    107       97       121     97

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +2.2  102

NYC:  +2.3  99

BOS:  +1.8  98

ORD:  +0.9  99

ATL:  +1.5  101

IAH:  +1.5  106

DEN:  +2.4  99

PHX:  +2.6  119

SEA:  +1.2  93

[bkviking]

DCA:  +1.2 100

NYC:  +1.0 99

BOS:  +1.1 97

ORD:  +0.7 99

ATL:  +1.0 100

IAH:  +1.0 101

DEN:  +1.8  100

PHX:  +1.8  119

SEA:  +1.2 94

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+2.1   +1.9    +1.6     +0.6    +1.1    +0.8     +1.3    +2.4    +0.4 

102      101      99       97       100      102      103     121      93

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.1        1.1      -0.1      -1.9      1.4     1.4        0.6      1.4       0.0 

99       98       97        97      100    102      102      119      93

[Roger Smith]

+0.7 __ +0.4 __ -0.1 __ -0.3 __ +1.4 _ +2.8 ___ +0.5 _ +3.4 _ -0.5

104 ___ 103 ___ 101 ___ 98 ___ 102 __ 108 ____ 105 __ 119 __ 95

[Rjay]

DCA:  +1.0  102

NYC:  +1.0  99

BOS:  +1.0 99

ORD:  -1.0  99

ATL:  +1.0  100

IAH:  +2.0  105

DEN:  +1.5  101

PHX:  +2.5  119

SEA:  +1.0  95

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for June 2022

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Stormchaser Chuck! ____ +3.2 _+3.2_+2.4 ___+1.5 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___+3.3 _+3.2 _+2.1

wxdude64 ______________ +2.2 _+2.3_+1.8 ___+0.9 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___+2.4 _+2.6 _+1.2

so_whats_happening ____+2.1 _+1.9 _+1.6 ___+0.6 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +1.3 _+2.4 _+0.4

wxallannj ________________+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.6 ___+0.5 _+1.2_+1.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _-0.5

BKViking ________________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___+0.7 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.8 _+1.8 _+1.2

Tom _____________________+1.1 _+1.2 _+0.9 ___+0.2 _+0.9_+0.5 ___+0.5 _+0.7 _-0.2

___ Consensus ___________+1.1 _+1.1 _+1.0 ___ +0.4 _+1.2 _+1.2 ___+1.3 _+2.2 _+0.2

RodneyS ________________ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -0.1 ___-1.9 _+1.4 _+1.4 ___ +0.6 _+1.4 __ 0.0

Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

RJay _______ (-1%) _______ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___-1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0 ___+1.5 _+2.5 _+1.0

Roger Smith _____________ +0.7 _+0.4 _-0.1 __ -0.3 _+1.4 _+2.8 ___+0.5 _+3.4 _-0.5

hudsonvalley21 __________ +0.6 _+0.6 _+0.2 __+0.1 _+0.4 _+0.7 ___+1.3 _+2.4 __0.0

DonSutherland1 __________ +0.3 _+0.7 _+0.8 __-0.8 _+0.1 _+0.4 ___+0.2 _+2.0 _-0.3

___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

========================================

Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, ATL, IAH, DEN, PHX.

 

Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95

Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90

DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92

so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93

RJay ______________________102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95

wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93

BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94

Tom ________________________99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97

RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93

wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92

Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 

 

[Roger Smith]

After the first half of June, anomalies and seasonal max values ... 

 

_________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

16th _____ (15d anom) __________+1.7 _+1.3 _+1.7 ___+0.4 _+3.1 _+4.0 ___ +2.2 _+4.5 _-2.1

26th _____ (25d anom) _________ +0.1 _-0.7 _-0.4 ___+1.8 _+3.8 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _-1.8

 

16th _____ (p30d anom GFS) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.0 _-1.0

26th _____ (p30d anom) ________+0.5 _ 0.0 _ 0.0____+2.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.0 _-0.5

 

30th/1st __ final anomalies _____-0.3 _ -0.6 _-0.1 ___ +1.6 _+3.2 _+3.7 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _-0.9

 

to July 10 __ Seasonal max ____ 99 __ 93 __ 92 _____ 99 __ 99 __104 _____101 _ 114 _ 91

(later updates are in July thread now)

 

16th _ End of month projections are basically persistence of mostly warm trends established so far, modified by somewhat different signals emerging over the next two weeks; worth noting that the SEA annual max was first established Apr 7 and only tied once in June so far.  (76F on June 21)

Consensus would score 686/900 on these projections; most forecasters would be close to that score as errors would balance out to some extent. Slightly higher estimated scores are those for wxallannj and wxdude64 but the range is quite small overall, and probably no more precise than the margin of error in the estimates. Normal would score 490/900. 

26th _ SEA finally getting some hot weather, 87F on Sat 25th, likely to be hotter 26th and perhaps 27th. BOS may also break 90 today (26th). New updates for anomalies and projections, preliminary scoring underway. (update, SEA 91 on 27th, and BOS now at 90F 26th). 

30th _ Final anomalies posted overnight, scoring updated. 

[Roger Smith]

Final Scoring for June 2022

 

FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS

 

Roger Smith ____________ 80 _ 80 _100__260 __ 62 _ 64 _ 82 __ 208__ 468 _ 70 _88 _ 92 __ 250 ___ 718

wxallannj ________________70 _ 60 _ 66 __ 196 __ 78 _ 60 _ 62 __ 200__ 396 _100_ 84 _ 92 __276 ___ 672 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 82 _ 76 _ 94 __ 252 __ 70 _ 44 _ 40 __ 154 __ 406 _ 86 _ 92 _ 82 __ 260 ___ 666

 

___ Consensus __________ 72 _ 66 _ 78 __ 216 __ 76 _ 60 _ 50 __ 186__ 402 _ 86 _ 88 _ 78 __ 252 ___ 654

 

Scotty Lightning ________ 74 _ 68 _ 78 __ 220 __ 88 _ 66 _ 66 __ 220__ 440 _ 80 _ 64 _ 62 __ 206 ___ 646

BKViking ________________ 70 _ 68 _ 76 __ 214 __ 82 _ 56 _ 46 __ 184__ 398 _ 96 _ 80 _ 58 __ 234 ___ 632

RJay _______ (-1%) ______ 73*_ 67*_ 77*__ 217 __ 48 _ 55*_65*__ 168__ 385 _ 89*_ 93*_61*__ 243 ___ 628

RodneyS ________________ 72 _ 66 _100__ 238 __ 30 _ 64 _ 54 __ 148__ 386 _ 72 _ 72 _ 82 __ 226 ___ 612

wxdude64 ______________ 50 _ 42 _ 62 __ 154 __ 86 _ 66 _ 56 __ 208 __ 362 _ 92 _ 96 _ 58 __ 246 ___ 608

DonSutherland1 _________88 _ 74 _ 82 __ 244 __ 52 _ 38 _ 34 __ 124__ 368 _ 64 _ 84 _ 88 __ 236 ___ 606

so_whats_happening ____52 _ 50 _ 66 __ 168 __ 80 _ 58 _ 42 __ 180__ 348 _ 86 _ 92 _ 74 __ 252 ___ 600

___ Normal ______________ 94 _ 88 _ 98 _ 280 __ 68 _ 36 _ 26 __ 130 __ 410 _ 60 _ 44 _ 82 __ 186 ___ 596

Tom _____________________ 72 _ 64 _ 80 __ 216 __ 72 _ 54 _ 36 __ 162__ 378 _ 70 _ 58 _ 86 __ 214 ___ 592

Stormchaser Chuck! ____ 30 _ 24 _ 50 __ 104 __ 98 _ 76 _ 36 __ 210__ 314 _ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 ___ 520

____________________________________________

Extreme forecasts

DCA (-0.3) is a win for coldest forecast (Don S) at +0.3 and also for Normal. 

NYC and BOS are wins for coldest forecasts, Roger Smith for both (+0.4, -0.1) and tied with RodneyS (-0.1) for BOS, (and Normal for NYC).

ORD (+1.6) and ATL (+3.2) are wins for hottest forecasts (StormchaserChuck +1.5, +2.0), and IAH (+3.7) also (Roger Smith +2.8)

DEN (+2.0) cooled off near the end and fell out of the extreme forecast category with the highest score going to third highest forecast.

PHX (+2.8) also slipped below the necessary outcome for an extreme forecast and high score also went to the third highest forecast. 

SEA (-0.9) is a shared win for wxallannj and Roger Smith with coldest forecasts (-0.5). 

========================================

[Roger Smith]

===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-June 2022) _______________>>>===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type.

With most scores similar in June, there was only one set of changes in ranks; hudsonvalley21 (now 6th) and wxallannj (7th) moved ahead of BKViking (now 8th, although only two points behind 7th place). Consensus moved up closer to second place but did not change its rank, also Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (3467), based on 3/2 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our 8th ranked total. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL

 

wxdude64 ______________393 _431 _481 __1305 __385 _449_ 318__1152 _2457 __402 _484 _385 __1271 ____3728

DonSutherland1 ________ 452 _444 _470__1366__422 _384 _226__1032 _2398 __382 _484 _428__1294____3692

 

___ Consensus ___________416 _428 _436 __1280__370 _428 _278__1076 _2356__428 _486 _397 __1311 ____3667

 

Tom _____________________ 419 _421 _403 __1243__384 _413 _375__1172 _2415 __449 _425 _312 __1186 ____3601

so_whats_happening ____368 _398 _462 __1228__381 _420_ 278__1079 _2307 __378 _488 _416 __1282____3589

RodneyS ________________ 392 _382 _412 __1186 __278 _430 _324__1032 _2218 __468 _476 _400__1344____3562

hudsonvalley21 __________382 _412 _454 __1248__346 _392 _294__1032 _2280__384 _470 _380 __1234____3514

wxallannj ________________358 _360 _392 __1110 __350 _386 _288__1024 _2134 __462 _478 _416 __1356____3490

BKViking ________________ 414 _418 _410 __1242__352 _400 _244 __996 _2238 __428 _460 _362 __1250____3488

RJay _____________________414 _430 _416___1260__387 _406 _276__1069 _ 2329 __382 _410 _309 __1101 ____3430

Scotty Lightning _________374 _398 _418 __1190 __300 _392 _300__ 992 _ 2182 __404 _450 _300__1154____ 3336

_____ Normal _____________390 _406 _388 __1184 __298 _362 _280 __940 _ 2124 __408 _394 _346__1148____3272

Roger Smith _____________ 300 _308 _238 __ 846 __224 _ 298 _266 __788 _1634 __424 _456 _409__1289____2923

Stormchaser Chuck (4/6)_286 _290 _285 __861 __260 _ 336 _190 __ 786 __1647 __212 _289 _163 __ 664____2311

__ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 3467 total points. 

===========================================

Best Forecasts _ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan

DonSutherland1 __________3^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May

___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar

so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0

RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0

wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0

BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr

Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0

___ Normal ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __  Jun

Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred five times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June and once for SEA in June.)

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

So far, 39 of 54 forecasts qualify, 16 warmest and 23 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4.

 

FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**-0___ 12-2 (11-2)

DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 8-0 (6.75 - 0)

Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 ____ 7-1

Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*_ ---- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 4-0 (3.5 - 0)

RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*_ 1*-0 __ 4-0 (3.0 -1)

 

____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 ___ 4-0

 

RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ ---- ___ 2-0 (0.75 - 0)

so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- ___ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-1 (0.5 - 1)

wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- _ 1*-0 ___ 1-1 (0.5 -1)

BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- ___ 0-0

 

===============================