June pattern and forecast discussion

[SJonesWX]

11 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

It has been warm/hot for the majority of the past 6 weeks.   Just not 90/70 day after day after day type stuff

lol wut?

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The easy test is to ask any member of the general public if they’ve thought June up till now was warm/hot… I think everyone knows what they’d say.  They’ll remember the heat being on inside for Fathers Day Weekend.

It’ll finally start changing as we are getting some actual summer weather in here.

Yesterday was a +4 day up here and it was hot.  88/48 spread.

It could be +3 and my mom would say it’s been cold. 

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

PF is usually the voice of sanity 

It all can’t be hot and it all can’t be cool.  And weather varies.

Need to be able to differentiate between say Fathers Day Weekend and this weekend.  Both were not hot and both were not cool.  It’s ok to acknowledge it was cool, now it’s hot .

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting what's going on in the models - the operational versions... and they're all carrying on with the same idea, too. 

For the next week to 10 days, they are ejecting Sonoran/SW heat released air masses then taking them along flatter arced trajectories, all the way across.  The heat plume wend their N edges to about mid state Michigan's latitude ... Then, ESE from there. They miss our region but are however close enough that their skirt +15 to +18C 850mb does occasional waft over us.  

We may not make big heat numbers, but an above normal look. Yet, the flow construct above the border with Canada looks cold.   The Euro in fact does get 20 to 21C in here at least for one day..I think next Sat...  This footprint pattern seems to then set up a similar scenario later on.    It's like today, then Thu -Sat, another two day lull, and then another flat surge maybe D10 -12/13

The whole while, the flow construct along and N of the Can/U.S. border just cannot seem to shake these blocking nodes, which the models even gather into a SPV structure over eastern Canada that sets over top.   It's kinda strange... Typically when +16 to +21C charged cyclic ejecta swath the country, there is more subtropical ridging...

There’s some potent airmasses, hot and cold, continuously wheeling in on both sides of the gradient into the deep extended. It seems we’ll continue to be on the rollercoaster unless one wins out. I haven’t seen SE Canada modeled like that into July for a long time. 2007 maybe?

[Damage In Tolland]

One thing we’re now seeing is modeling seeing a consistent AN to WAN pattern moving forward. Gone are the cool , dry days and nights. We should continue to see warning as we go forward 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing we’re now seeing is modeling seeing a consistent AN to WAN pattern moving forward. Gone are the cool , dry days and nights. We should continue to see warning as we go forward 

 

[dendrite]

And there’s nowhere in the world I’d rather be

Than here in my room, dreaming about dews and heat

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

And there’s nowhere in the world I’d rather be

Than here in my room, dreaming about dews and heat

I'll be dreaming of dews tonight

'Till tomorrow and for all of my life

[Saguaro]

Abundant sunshine out there this morning, with temperatures in the lower 80s. IZG is already upper 80s. Dewpoints were mid 60s but are mixing out already. Forecast is for 90 but we'll see if that actually happens. I'm sure IZG won't have any issue reaching it, but it runs a bit cooler over here with the lakes around. Forecast calls for 80s returning by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week.

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting what's going on in the models - the operational versions... and they're all carrying on with the same idea, too. 

For the next week to 10 days, they are ejecting Sonoran/SW heat released air masses then taking them along flatter arced trajectories, all the way across.  The heat plume wend their N edges to about mid state Michigan's latitude ... Then, ESE from there. They miss our region but are however close enough that their skirt +15 to +18C 850mb does occasional waft over us.  

We may not make big heat numbers, but an above normal look. Yet, the flow construct above the border with Canada looks cold.   The Euro in fact does get 20 to 21C in here at least for one day..I think next Sat...  This footprint pattern seems to then set up a similar scenario later on.    It's like today, then Thu -Sat, another two day lull, and then another flat surge maybe D10 -12/13

The whole while, the flow construct along and N of the Can/U.S. border just cannot seem to shake these blocking nodes, which the models even gather into a SPV structure over eastern Canada that sets over top.   It's kinda strange... Typically when +16 to +21C charged cyclic ejecta swath the country, there is more subtropical ridging...

It feels like this is a persistent trend no matter what the summer. Even in 1995, outside of that one day in southernmost NE, the record heat was consistently shunted to the south. The only years I can think of which might have been exceptions to this would be 1988, 1999, and 2002.

 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s much larger than last year too. Crazy.

It has moved into western Maine as well. It's weird because it stops right at the 302 crossing of the saco river swamp area in Fryeburg. East of there the trees are normal.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Saguaro said:

Abundant sunshine out there this morning, with temperatures in the lower 80s. IZG is already upper 80s. Dewpoints were mid 60s but are mixing out already. Forecast is for 90 but we'll see if that actually happens. I'm sure IZG won't have any issue reaching it, but it runs a bit cooler over here with the lakes around. Forecast calls for 80s returning by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week.

 

It feels like this is a persistent trend no matter what the summer. Even in 1995, outside of that one day in southernmost NE, the record heat was consistently shunted to the south. The only years I can think of which might have been exceptions to this would be 1988, 1999, and 2002.

 

It has moved into western Maine as well. It's weird because it stops right at the 302 crossing of the saco river swamp area in Fryeburg. East of there the trees are normal.

That Maine zone originated in North Conway. That pocket of NH has had some problems for a few years now. 

We’ve been wet enough here that we’re apparently maintaining the fungus that keeps them at bay. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

huh, I am saying that to be "cool" in mid or late June, we'd have to be way below average.  Even -.5 is warm

Ah. I understand. I thought you just meant anomaly-wise.   Yep. June is a warm month.  This has been a great one 

[Ginx snewx]

Summah

[Damage In Tolland]

Beer !

[radarman]

Maybe someday folks will recalculate temperature anomalies correctly... which is to say integrated over time rather than with the absurd midnight to midnight high/low method.  And my suspicion is you'd find that low dew stretches like we've had really are below normal.

[powderfreak]

MVL popped a 90F at 12:35pm, but given rounding of Celsius may not be legit yet.

Already up 35 degrees from the morning low after a 40 degree swing yesterday.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, kdxken said:

Maybe Boston can finally hit 90 today. Almost a month behind schedule. Hasn't been much in the way of summer heat this year. 

 

"The average date of the first 90-degree reading in Boston is June 8th, and we have not hit one officially so far at Logan Airport"

Not sure it happens today.  While most of us are near 90 now BOS holding low 80s with sea breeze.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

On 6/25/2022 at 8:57 AM, CoastalWx said:

Although I don’t see big heat, looks like overall we get into a warmer and more humid regime beyond next weekend. 

Wow… warmer weather towards mid July. Crazy.

[dendrite]

Not too bad yet, but I'm starting to see my topsoil drying. Up over 30cb now and the soil temps (4" and 8") are climbing over 70F for the first time since mid May.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Wow… warmer weather towards mid July. Crazy.

  it’s more of regime change.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

There’s some potent airmasses, hot and cold, continuously wheeling in on both sides of the gradient into the deep extended. It seems we’ll continue to be on the rollercoaster unless one wins out. I haven’t seen SE Canada modeled like that into July for a long time. 2007 maybe?

It's funny you mentioned that ... I was thinking about that or a summer around then ( perhaps that was it ), whence there was a freak kind of winter look over eastern Canada, simultaneously, while also sitting there processing ...whatever Juliana was talking about over brunch -

  ( forget it ... one has to understand the mind of the eternally afflicted )

You know, one thing that I noticed when looping these oper runs.  The non-hydrostats don't really fall very far beneath 582 at Boston's latitude, despite those open circular sander looking grinder troughs running through S-SE Canada.  In fact, really only for 6 -12 hours, two different intervals, otherwise, they are at or above that metric.  Despite the look of that ...  it's not a "cold" look.   It's a FAST look.  One thing that is for certain, either way... that is very anomalously fast velocity jet for this time of year.  But it's not a circumstance native to just this out look -it's been pretty much in the books as a seasonal bias. 

It's been that way every summer too since 1998 but I won't care to argue ...   This really strikes to me as an example of the expanded HC... It's "pressing" +height anomalies into the 40th/mid latitudes... and that induces unusually steep gradient in that region.   It's documented stuff.  I mean I hate to bring it up.  I realize how sexually aroused Ray gets when he reads H and C in capital letters in any sentence that implicates climate change, however subtly, is augmenting circulation modes ...but sorry - it is what it is.  I'm not making this shit up myself...   Altho - I feel I deserve some credit because I began noticing higher ambient velocities prior to the papers getting published, and I remember commenting way back in the 2010s about noticing higher heights pressing N from the S...  but whatever - I don't give a shit. 

As long as Ray is annoyed ...I think we can all agree there's really a systemic change

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  it’s more of regime change.

Like Dendrite and Tippy were talking about, looks like a wild gradient ride on EPS and GEFS.  Trying to sneak some more ridging into southern parts of the Northeast, while Canada stays cooler.  Sort of like BDL is above normal while CAR is solidly below normal.

You wonder if we end up gradient pattern style... it's definitely not an over-the-top heat look, ha.  Could have warmer anomalies the further south and west one goes.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

One thing we’re now seeing is modeling seeing a consistent AN to WAN pattern moving forward. Gone are the cool , dry days and nights. We should continue to see warning as we go forward 

Quite possibly the boldest prediction heading into july....

[TalcottWx]

22 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

What's brought you to CT?

Main reason is fiance is from CT. 

Other than that, I have a job lined up at fox 61

I'm also tired of city living. Born and raised with people on top of me. I loved my year in Bridgton Maine. I'd go even more rural if I could. 

Also-I grew up never seeing some of these beautiful areas of CT. It's a very underrated state. Plenty to do. More affordable housing market. 

Have a lot of football friends there too. May get into coaching offensive line. 

I want space, a lawn, a driveway, a garden. Where I live in Ashmont is great but my car has been robbed twice. Multiple shootings we can audibly hear. 

Will definitely move back east at some point down the line. My name is on the southie house it's far too lucrative to live there. People have been willing to pay more and more to live in southie. 

Hope Emily is well Mike. I was good friends with Stefan. He spent a weekend visiting for st Patrick's day in 2011. Unfortunately he was one of the people I grew apart from most in our political climate. Great kid and family. Had a lot of good times with him. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

MVL popped a 90F at 12:35pm, but given rounding of Celsius may not be legit yet.

Already up 35 degrees from the morning low after a 40 degree swing yesterday.

Same down here.  I mean you know I have a weird diurnal fetish but this is 3rd on the change for me this spring and summer.   It was 63; it is now 93.  

Dry as a mo' fo though... wow.  It's like lick one's lips dry.  Never thought we chap in late June but maybe this is another CC gem.  I dunno. 

If one owns a garden, best to leave a hose just above trickle rates at the high end and let it circulate around the top soil - do NOT spray the leaves.  I see people spraying their garden foliage with near mist under lasing sun around this town... huh.    

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Main reason is fiance is from CT. 

Other than that, I accepted a job at fox 61 awhile back. 

I'm also tired of city living. Born and raised with people on top of me. I loved my year in Bridgton Maine. I'd go even more rural if I could. 

Also-I grew up never seeing some of these beautiful areas of CT. It's a very underrated state. Plenty to do. More affordable housing market. 

Have a lot of football friends there too. May get into coaching offensive line. 

I want space, a lawn, a driveway, a garden. Where I live in Ashmont is great but my car has been robbed twice. Multiple shootings we can audibly hear. 

Will definitely move back east at some point down the line. My name is on the southie house it's far too lucrative to live there. People have been willing to pay more and more to live in southie. 

Hope Emily is well Mike. I was good friends with Stefan. He spent a weekend visiting for st Patrick's day in 2011. Unfortunately he was one of the people I grew apart from most in our political climate. Great kid and family. Had a lot of good times with him. 

 

Plus ... Kevin.

Huh huh!

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Plus ... Kevin.

Huh huh!

Kevin can meet me at illicit everyday Saturday Aftn live music and brews. 

 

Then again, I might not invite kev, there's a new big man in CT it's not big enough for the both of us 

 

I'll have kev smoking cannabis in no time

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I'll have kev smoking cannabis in no time

Tough to do when he goes to bed before you wake up.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tough to do when he goes to bed before you wake up.

My fidelity opens pre market trading at 4am. Wake and bake

[Typhoon Tip]

Check out Logon ... can that be right?    ESE at nearly 20mph sustained for over an hour, and they're putting up at 86 F temperature.  wth.  

I wonder if the nearer coastal SSTs are beginning to respond to all this surface pile up from unrelenting llv shits flow -

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Check out Logon ... can that be right?    ESE at nearly 20mph sustained for over an hour, and they're putting up at 86 F temperature.  wth.  

I wonder if the nearer coastal SSTs are beginning to respond to all this surface pile up from unrelenting llv shits flow -

93f car thermo at the gas tank