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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

64/61 at 10pm while letting the dog out.

Summer vibes with dews over 60F.  It’s a heavy evening air, trying to fog out along the river.  Probably won’t drop beyond the upper 50s.

A 40-degree diurnal spread today from upper 40s to upper 80s.

Chamber is loving it. Screw the sweaty stuff.

 

"The optimum combination for human comfort is a dewpoint of about 60 F and a RH of between 50 and 70% (this would put the temperature at about 75 F). The air feels dry outside when BOTH the dewpoint is below 60 F AND the RH is less than 40%."

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34 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Temps in the upper 60s and low 70s with comfortable dew points. What's not to love! I thought you liked it hot?

I like warm weather, of course prefer a low near 75-80 with dews and maybe some storms.  However I don't complain when those things do not happen, 90 for a high and 70's to 60's pm and night with low/medium dews is enjoyable too.

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11 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

I like warm weather, of course prefer a low near 75-80 with dews and maybe some storms.  However I don't complain when those things do not happen, 90 for a high and 70's to 60's pm and night with low/medium dews is enjoyable too.

It's a great vibe.  Summer.  Nothing very noteworthy for the time of year, but it's right on schedule.  Getting into summer vibes at the end of June, when it should climo wise.

Sometimes humans want to rush the changing seasons, but this year it has seemed to follow the calendar.  It's time to be warm/hot for a couple months.

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's a great vibe.  Summer.  Nothing very noteworthy for the time of year, but it's right on schedule.  Getting into summer vibes at the end of June, when it should climo wise.

Sometimes humans want to rush the changing seasons, but this year it has seemed to follow the calendar.  It's time to be warm/hot for a couple months.

It has been warm/hot for the majority of the past 6 weeks. :stein:  Just not 90/70 day after day after day type stuff

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What a special one. 69/69

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track. Minor adjustments made to temp/dewpts to reflect current obs and trends. Mid-level ridge axis slides east of the region today, with surface high pressure centered
offshore. The biggest difference from Saturday is a modest,synoptically- driven southerly flow that develops. This may help dew points climb slightly during the day, especially along eastern coastal sections. 

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24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That southerly flow will make for come COC seabreeze.  Note that Marion has a forecast high of 77.

Maybe Boston can finally hit 90 today. Almost a month behind schedule. Hasn't been much in the way of summer heat this year. 

 

"The average date of the first 90-degree reading in Boston is June 8th, and we have not hit one officially so far at Logan Airport"

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8 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

It has been warm/hot for the majority of the past 6 weeks. :stein:  Just not 90/70 day after day after day type stuff

A bit different here - last 6 weeks have been almost exactly average, 0.3° AN.  Yesterday's 84 was the warmest in that period.  The real May heat was the 90 on 5/14.

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14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

A bit different here - last 6 weeks have been almost exactly average, 0.3° AN.  Yesterday's 84 was the warmest in that period.  The real May heat was the 90 on 5/14.

ORH has only been +0.5 for the month with yesterday’s 85 being the warmest.  
the mid May heat (5/21 and 5/22) of 88 and 90 were the hottest there as well   

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47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Maybe Boston can finally hit 90 today. Almost a month behind schedule. Hasn't been much in the way of summer heat this year. 

 

"The average date of the first 90-degree reading in Boston is June 8th, and we have not hit one officially so far at Logan Airport"

Calling 18 days  'almost a month' rivals DIT hyperpole.  Congrat!  ;)

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

AC on too high?

Yep. Its set to cryogenic according to my wife at 65. I'm from Sweden and she's from VT so it balances out. Haha

It's all powered from solar/heat pumps so the energy usage/cost fortunately isn't a issue. 

 

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It's interesting what's going on in the models - the operational versions... and they're all carrying on with the same idea, too. 

For the next week to 10 days, they are ejecting Sonoran/SW heat released air masses then taking them along flatter arced trajectories, all the way across.  The heat plume wend their N edges to about mid state Michigan's latitude ... Then, ESE from there. They miss our region but are however close enough that their skirt +15 to +18C 850mb does occasional waft over us.  

We may not make big heat numbers, but an above normal look. Yet, the flow construct above the border with Canada looks cold.   The Euro in fact does get 20 to 21C in here at least for one day..I think next Sat...  This footprint pattern seems to then set up a similar scenario later on.    It's like today, then Thu -Sat, another two day lull, and then another flat surge maybe D10 -12/13

The whole while, the flow construct along and N of the Can/U.S. border just cannot seem to shake these blocking nodes, which the models even gather into a SPV structure over eastern Canada that sets over top.   It's kinda strange... Typically when +16 to +21C charged cyclic ejecta swath the country, there is more subtropical ridging...

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Not even July and we have established a solid MDR conducive pattern, as well... have an MDR wave about to designate - pretty impressive on both accounts.   94L isn't merely some frontal booked astride the GA coast or coughing partially exposed thing in Gulf (NHC uses as an early awarenes/PR device...lol) It is one of those that is revealing its presence by torquing the entire ITCZ field prior to convection - a real wave.

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22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

hmmm only?  A +.5 during June is quite warm.

The easy test is to ask any member of the general public if they’ve thought June up till now was warm/hot… I think everyone knows what they’d say.  They’ll remember the heat being on inside for Fathers Day Weekend.

It’ll finally start changing as we are getting some actual summer weather in here.

Yesterday was a +4 day up here and it was hot.  88/48 spread.

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Mixed bag summer. Pulses of heat interspersed with cool shots. Probably lead to a warm summer overall but won’t be a hot one. Perhaps that changes later down the road but this current pattern has legs has been stubborn to break down. Hot weather keeps on knockin but it can’t come in. Just short visits. Great for folks who want a comfy summer.


.

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