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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

Even worse in IZG area. A mid level band of clouds stole monday away as well. This week has been a classic example of just how these things can rob several days of potential summer along with daylight during the precious few weeks of the year surrounding the solstice.

 

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thankfully ...there's a definitive clearing entering western MA/CT, inching east at the speed of 15 mph plus erosion rates.  WPC stopped analyzing a front extending N from NE PA into NNE but the look on sat loops seems there's still a vestigial echo of that physical exertion helping to delineate why SNE is an anal hole climate compared to the everywhere else in the U.S.

The tendency for WPC and NWS to simply pretend these boundaries vanished was one of my pet peeves when I lived there. The satellite, wind obs, and temps all still show a definite contrast.

 

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's about as classic a depiction one can get of the coastal plain being porked by these. I don't see it going away today either, especially in NNE where there's overrunning convection/higher clouds. I went through enough of these watching visibile satellite trends to know when the rest of the day was shot.

 

As for the longer range, GFS says there might be a chance of summer making an attempt of showing up in about two weeks. Yesterday's 18Z run was miserable but the 0Z completely flipped around to show some solid heat working in. Today's 12Z walked that back significantly with another backdoor showing up on the 14th, but still offered more hope than yesterday's 18Z run.

 

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48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gibbs says furnace revs up June 16th . Drumbeats getting louder by the day 

Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be...

Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions.  The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof.  Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast.  That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole.

But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge.  The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact.  The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans.   The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal. 

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16 minutes ago, alex said:

Wait what??? It’s dreary here. Steady rain all day, 50s. About 5” of rain in the past 3 weeks - on the upside, the green is absolutely magnificent 

We had some rain earlier today but it’s been nice all afternoon.  Likewise I think we had like 5” in May.  I saw some spots up near the Canadian border near Jay had like 7”+ on the month.

The green is absurd.  The higher elevations still have that “fresh green” look as they only leafed out like in the past two weeks… and the steady diet of soaking rain just has it like neon green.

Radar loop has had a decent showery afternoon from C.VT up into your area.  We managed to clear out.

4618FF2A-D644-4B96-973F-5ABEC78AE1E4.thumb.jpeg.1a03413a5cfff97a0cc9afb1a44cdf0a.jpeg

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be...

Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions.  The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof.  Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast.  That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole.

But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge.  The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact.  The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans.   The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal. 

On the way here next week. I wonder how verification will go as we get closer.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 104.
Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 78.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 106.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 80.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 108.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 80.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 109.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 82.
Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 111.

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be...

Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions.  The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof.  Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast.  That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole.

But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge.  The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact.  The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans.   The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal. 

It looks like it may be a full on Sonoran heat release that runs unabated thru summer . Could rival the heat waves of the 90’s wee we had 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Love the Euro weeklies with the heat in the mid section and the NE under a  COC regime. Had a nice  clearing afternoon now clouds winning again.

This afternoon was gorgeous. Pick of the week on FI. Water still too chilly for swimming though. 

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Man, seemed cloudier than that here. 

I'm realizing just how lucky we got up this way.  I hadn't looked at area weather... figured it was a moving round of showers (passed by early this morning) and was cruising SEward given the NW breezes we felt here.

The precipitation and convergence zones seemed to stall and continue to regenerate south of I-89 and over into NH.  I had no idea, felt like a nice warm season Friday evening.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20221542106-20221550101-GOES16-ABI-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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10 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve managed to escape any rain here the last few days. Lawns starting to brown.

Very dry out there… many of our mosquito breeding sites at work are completely dry, very abnormal for this time of year. Should definitely curb the mosquito issues this summer 

Haven't even mowed the lawn it's been so dry. Nothing's growing

20220603_133529.jpg

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm realizing just how lucky we got up this way.  I hadn't looked at area weather... figured it was a moving round of showers (passed by early this morning) and was cruising SEward given the NW breezes we felt here.

The precipitation and convergence zones seemed to stall and continue to regenerate south of I-89 and over into NH.  I had no idea, felt like a nice warm season Friday evening.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20221542106-20221550101-GOES16-ABI-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

We didn’t get much rain, .06 in my pws, but the clouds were really dark at times. Once in a while we would get a sunny break. 

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It looks like it may be a full on Sonoran heat release that runs unabated thru summer . Could rival the heat waves of the 90’s wee we had 

Maybe we can rival July 2019. 

From Uptons AFD July 20th. 

Even overnight, the
urban corridor and coastal sections will see dewpoints in the
mid 80s to around 90.

 

 

Heatwave graphic.png

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