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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Doesn't look like a hot patter based on that foreast.  You must really hate those "less humid" and "warm pleasant" days.

I suppose if you ignore the 78, 81, 83 that's in the middle, you might call it 'hot' and a 'pattern'.  However, if you take it as a whole, it's not.

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2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Doesn't look like a hot patter based on that foreast.  You must really hate those "less humid" and "warm pleasant" days.

Made to order by the chamber of commerce. Gotta love the comfortable dew points. It just keeps going and going and going..

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3 days in the 90’s and one upper 80’s. Torch! 
It’s gettin’ hot in here…. So take off all your clothes 

End of the spring
And here she comes back
Hi, hi, hi, hi there
Them summer days
Those summer days
That's when I had
Most of my fun, back
Hi, hi, hi, hi there
Them summer days
Those summer days
I cloud nine when I want to
Out of school, yeah
County fair in the country sun
And everything is true
Ooh, yeah, yeah
Hot fun in the summertime
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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Using BOS for yby? Your Davis won’t touch 90 any day.

Gonna be fun to watch TAN vs my Davis vs NWS Forecast.

90/90 is current forecast.

Me thinks TAN hits 92-93  both days and my Davis hits 86-87

:sizzle:  Got a 9am appointment in Sharon but after that we chillin in the pool.

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

814temp.new.gif

As an aside it doesn't anecdotally recall for me that they are doing very well with the west coast, nor locally, over the past month. 

Despite our 'sensible memories' on where and what the weather has been and done... we are modestly above normal at all climo sites for June.  Meanwhile, it seems these day 8-14 anomaly projections have always been neutral to below average over this region.   That, and... the same is true for the west coast. I seem to recall a lot of outlooks that similarly called for neutral or even blow normal centered on California, meanwhile, they've cycled through perhaps 4 different headline-able heat criteria .. including the one ongoing now, for the Imperial and Central Valley - this time extending up in latitude to coastal Washington/Oregon.  

They've been very good over the Arklotex region and the MS/Missouri Valleys, however.  It's likely ensembles are too amplified - in and out metrical analysis ...  We sort of see this anyway ourselves, as we routinely have to modify these GFS Octo vortexes over Ontario - we just f'n did that over the last 2 days.   The 4th of July, to which fits in the d10-14 range (btw..) had a 540 dm obtrusion of cold into NE for three runs...  Gone.  It's a seasonal trough at this point.  So... point being, the ensembles probably are not dispersive enough and mirror ( to some degree (pun intended haha) ) the operational tendency to core out super massive black holes.  

I think nested in that confusion is a clearer truth, however, that we are not seeing any kind of semi-persistent eastern continental heat dome/ WAR -like circulation modes.   Yet ...I mean, I'm not debating the whole of the season here... Sometimes Junes can be assholes with the pattern.

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30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although I don’t see big heat, looks like overall we get into a warmer and more humid regime beyond next weekend. 

Yup... this appears to be the canvas into the first week of July ..perhaps beyond.  I've been more than less pushing that same idea, that we flirt with higher potential but more likely we do maintenance +1.5 dailies.   In other words, the CC signal      ( partly kidding)

I think it's interesting that there is such an active R-wave signal around the hemisphere this late in the season.  I wonder ... should that wane off more akin to climo, what happens out there.   Talkin' deeper July 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can picture Ray taking a dump and then as he gets up, the toilet seat is stuck to his cheeks only to fall down with a big thud and wake the baby up. 

Lol.. priceless :lol: 
 

Ray.. why were you making all that racket ? 
I sat on the seat too long with so much extra wiping due to the excessive dews.. cheeks got sweaty and when I stood up, I took the seat with me 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol.. priceless :lol: 
 

Ray.. why were you making all that racket ? 
I sat on the seat too long with so much extra wiping due to the excessive dews.. cheeks got sweaty and when I stood up, I took the seat with me 

It’s like 5am and that Thai he had is just brewing a steamer. Goes in, bathroom is hot and sweaty. Goes to stand and then just “thud.” Baby wakes up crying. Wife pissed. Ray goes to update ENSO outlook. 

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Odd...  NWS sites all seem to be holding the temp down farther than it really is?

I realize these home sites tied into various Internet source/networks are not official ...but when everyone is 80 to 82 and BDL and ASH are both stuck at 75, plus, it physically appeals to be in the 80s out side ... that strange. 

Meanwhile, ORH is 77 ?!   ORH is warmer than BDL, on a sunny morning in June under a building heat pattern... okay

I do see that everyone is within a flag wobble of dead calm right now... maybe there is a very thin decoupled layer around these ASOS sites, where by advantage of 1,000' altitude, ORH is getting more mixing - so far.  

How's all this for crushingly nerdy tedium LOL...    oh god, please help me find a life

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Summer vibe this morning for sure.  Just hits slightly differently when you go outside than it has for the past couple weeks.

Got down to 48F last night for great sleeping weather but up to 72F now and the dew point into the upper 50s.  You know when upper 50s dews feel humid that it's been coolish lately.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Summer vibe this morning for sure.  Just hits slightly differently when you go outside than it has for the past couple weeks.

Got down to 48F last night for great sleeping weather but up to 72F now and the dew point into the upper 50s.  You know when upper 50s dews feel humid that it's been coolish lately.

Yeah...I was casting that sentiment to  ... k12345 or whatever his/her handle is ..that acclimation plays a factor ( obviously ) in how 'heat' is perceived. 

I mean, we probably don't really even mention today and tomorrow in mid August, as by then, we've had at least 8 different failed heat waves that were forecast to be significant threats for big numbers ...  :huh: that ultimately resulted in 89.7's ... But for the time being, 91 down here with 60 dps is hot.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Odd...  NWS sites all seem to be holding the temp down farther than it really is?

I realize these home sites tied into various Internet source/networks are not official ...but when everyone is 80 to 82 and BDL and ASH are both stuck at 75, plus, it physically appeals to be in the 80s out side ... that strange. 

Meanwhile, ORH is 77 ?!   ORH is warmer than BDL, on a sunny morning in June under a building heat pattern... okay

I do see that everyone is within a flag wobble of dead calm right now... maybe there is a very thin decoupled layer around these ASOS sites, where by advantage of 1,000' altitude, ORH is getting more mixing - so far.  

How's all this for crushingly nerdy tedium LOL...    oh god, please help me find a life

Yeah I think the valleys need to recover more from the rad cooling night. CON/ASH were in the low to mid 50s while ORH had a low of 64°.

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