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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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We got zero sun today. Clouds and drizzle with occasional heavier showers.  .60” the past 24 hours.

Weekend temperatures keep creeping higher and higher for the CRV.  I’m helping out with the Green River Festival this weekend. If we are doing 92/68 there should be plenty of heat exhaustion to keep the medical tent busy.

Maybe pull a 95 somewhere in Connecticut?

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22 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Without even looking at my data, that jives with the feel of what has been going on here in SVT.

Every rain event seems to be .14"-- barely wetting the ground under trees.  Wouldn't mind some dews to maybe get some storms at least.

We’ve got a bigger departure than Mt Tolland up here but it hasn’t felt that way for sure.  Weymouth only at -0.29” too?  I figured SNE was a desert from the posts here.  Looks like NNE/CNE is worse :lol:.

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30 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

At what level does Stein kick in?  Is it anything below normal or is there like a standard deviation level where you are “Steined?”

Sometimes it seems everyone who isn’t seeing well above normal water is seeing Stein :lol:.

It's ridiculous. We got enough rain for 4 years last year. Relax...

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We got zero sun today. Clouds and drizzle with occasional heavier showers.  .60” the past 24 hours.

Weekend temperatures keep creeping higher and higher for the CRV.  I’m helping out with the Green River Festival this weekend. If we are doing 92/68 there should be plenty of heat exhaustion to keep the medical tent busy.

Maybe pull a 95 somewhere in Connecticut?

Looking like 90/64 for Sat/Sun.  deep deep summer.

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I had been watching it all morning ...because I have such a richly fulfilling and meaningful life otherwise ... and it's been interesting to see this rarity of improved conditions materializing from the Labradorian region - it's almost like the curse tried to hard and over shot. Lol 

Bust seriously it's got to be a unique synopsis to drive this total scenario like this.  Over the next 30 hours, we see the closure of mid level circulation then drive west some 350 naut mi of distance from 65 W to nearly 72 W, some 3 standard non-hydrostatic intervals of depth ... That's an unusual feature and trajectory combination at this time of year.   That sort of retrograde motion is more apt to occur in Feb and March, for seasonal reasons/concepts.  But in doing so, this bulging west of the warm front and associated cloud band did seem to happen in lock-step with the backing 500 mb flow that is currently taking place S of NS.   It's ironic that a close 500 mb/u/A low causes nice weather to happen on the coast?

like wtf chuck -

It reminded me of my years living in socal. We'd get stuck in those May Gray/June Gloom patterns where the onshow flore/marine layer wouldn't budge for several days on end. When it was badly entrenched enough there'd sometimes be what LOX called "reverse clearing," where the immediate coast broke out in sun while inland was boned and never cleared out.

That warm front ground to a screeching halt in central NY. Usually they make it to at least the merrimack valley this time of year.

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40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No prolong heat in sight after our two day taste of summer this weekend.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_anom_10day-7238400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-t2m_f_anom_10day-7238400.png

 Near record lows here are in S FL this am which is laughable. Last 3 days have been fantastic in the 85-88 range with a nice east wind…..Not so much Orlando and points north.

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19 hours ago, Saguaro said:

I just don't think this will be a summer for any kind of heat in NE. I've seen this type of regime settle in for many of the summers of the 2010s and it's all too familiar. There's a burst of heat in May and then a pattern change where the door slams shut for the remainder of the warm season. More often than not, May ends up having the highest daily temperatures of the season. We've even just had the requisite horror show we went through over the weekend which is a staple of these types of summer patterns. Sunday we were in the 40s and lower 50s all day with thick overcast and afternoon rain. Even back in January and February I don't recall any day that chilly and miserable in Phoenix.

Another thing of note is how these 23-25c 850 temps moving well into Ontario and Quebec at the moment are absolutely obliterated once they try moving east of the Tug hill longitude. There's even some kind of cyclonic circulation backing into NE from the atlantic while that's happening.

Depends on what we mean by 'heat' in this context.  If we're dancing around the notion of 'big' as an adjective?  I'm inclined to agree - but inclination isn't an outright sale, either. Lol. 

No but it's likely to be 90/59 on Saturday, and perhaps 92/62 on Sunday or whatever ( I have spent retentive time on it this morning...) Even though the 850 mb kinetic expulsion goes through that aspect you noted, where it collapses roughly BUF's longitude, the 850s are warm nonetheless.

Muse:  This whole closed(ing) mid level thing off the upper MA/NE coast ...it isn't a "coastal" in that sense. It has very little lower attending expression .. of which is missing, a CAA region around a west arc of a cyclone model... It's one of those ordeals where as it pulls away, you default warmer. We see this behavior in the early and late chapters of winters ... where the colder aspect was the front side of the event.  Then as the low moves away and the sun comes out, the temp rockets to 44 F that afternoon or the next day... and that beautiful 10" of new snow ends up 4" of glop.

So the weekend ... the OV to NE region defaults under +15 to 17C 850s, with [apparently] low ceiling RH, while slowly increasing WSW gradient spanning those two days.  By convention, 90 is hot .. it's just not very big.   

Little longer:  Also .. further down the road, there's a dicey period D8.5 - 11 on these models.   The 00z and 06z GFS briefly closes off a 594+ dm contour over the upper mid Atlantic during that span, and both the GGEM and Euro indicate a significant mass of SW released air is/has extended all the way to the Va coast across the continent at that same time as the GFS. Meanwhile, the telecon footprint -PNA is still in place... I'd call that playing with fire ... 

Heat's really fragile in guidance, and in practice once above ~ 35 N. It only takes a subtle outflow from shower two towns over to undermine a hot afternoon. In the macro sense ( in guidance) just about any perturbation imaginable tends to offset big numbers. Be it a poorly timed debris plume off an MCS ... or a diffused front below the sensitivity of WPC's detection..  The closer to 95 ... 100, the more perfect things need to be.  But, the flip side of the fragility is that it can be 'hidden' by these offsets, in guidance, and then if the guidance removes the offsets...it can emerge rather quickly. 

In the period leading and going through the D8 to 12, there is a -PNA hot signal that appears to have the elephant ass of the polar regions suppressing it south.  It's like spring loaded heat in a sense.  If/when the N branch of the westerlies relaxes thru S/SE Canada, the heat end up N in tandem.  If the N stream is correct as is, we narily miss.

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I wish Dr. Paul Roundy ( ...I think he's a doc by now...) still ran that probability product available on line like back in the old days.   I found that tool to be more than merely eye candy.  It seemed to do rather well at early detection for development regions of the Pac and Atlantic expanse. 

Not so much going forward, but the recent MJO and orientation of the R-wave correlate to eastern Pacific then relaying into Atlantic TC genesis, and now ... the 00z GGEM and Euro both have suggestion for MDR development nearing the Islands if just for sport.  It's obviously hugely early by climo for that region, but it is what it is

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