June pattern and forecast discussion

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The Hadley heroes also seem to forget that the majority of warming is occurring with respect to daily mins. The degree of warming during the solar max, while both palpable and measurable, is not nearly as drastic.

It is what it is. With a warming planet we get an atmosphere that can hold more moisture and produce more clouds and precip. Our cool stretches aren't due to the mins anymore either...mostly low maxes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I didn't do that...

The receding frost line is about as harmlessly generic, and in fact, not exposing to any agenda, as one can be considering the subject matter of CC is real ...

                     ...whether we want to believe it or not.    To wit, the means seasonal frost line recedes.

The HC stuff is one component in the total CC manifold.  

As far as you 6 winter?   you didn't ask me but I put that at 50/50. 

I put it less considering it hasn't happened in at least 70 years, but its increasingly possible...sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It is what it is. With a warming planet we get an atmosphere that can hold more moisture and produce more clouds and precip. Our cool stretches aren't due to the mins anymore either...mostly low maxes.

Yes.

Global warming is manifesting most with respect to less extreme daily mins.

[Typhoon Tip]

There we go Brian ... Maybe you looked at a different Sat source/rendering than COD, but just in the last 2 frames, there's more of that under glue being exposed by the back edge.

But my hunch is that it punches through in this case ... with the June sun and nothing above it.  It'll be an interesting little nerd project for the mid day.  Lol

[dendrite]

But there may be a tipping point. I still think we're due to pull something more exotic off heat wise in the coming years. most of the rest of the country has done it. We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow. We've found ways to muck it up with North Atlantic junk or dews reducing the thermodynamic heating capabilities so far. But at some point one of those 98/75 days is going to end up 105/60. I know we had this convo a little bit back, but you were probably checked out then after winter was kaput.

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I put it less considering it hasn't happened in at least 70 years, but its increasingly possible...sure.

“Hadley’s” comet? I’ll see myself out 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

But there may be a tipping point. I still think we're due to pull something more exotic off heat wise in the coming years. most of the rest of the country has done it. We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow. We've found ways to muck it up with North Atlantic junk or dews reducing the thermodynamic heating capabilities so far. But at some point one of those 98/75 days is going to end up 105/60. I know we had this convo a little bit back, but you were probably checked out then after winter was kaput.

Yea, no argument there.

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It is what it is. With a warming planet we get an atmosphere that can hold more moisture and produce more clouds and precip. Our cool stretches aren't due to the mins anymore either...mostly low maxes.

The Pacific NW pulled 110+ temps over a multi-day period. 

Sooner or later that type of stretch will make its way here

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

^ I’m sure the clearing will get to about ORH in an hr and then we see the low lvl junk wedged against the terrain. Takes the rest of the afternoon to get breaks in the overcast and then nighttime. At least we got the weekend? 

I’m in ORH now.  Brightening but still overcast and cool.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There we go Brian ... Maybe you looked at a different Sat source/rendering that COD, but just in the last 2 frames, there more of that under glue being exposed by the back edge.

But my hunch is that it punches through in this case ... with the June sun and nothing above it.  It'll be an interesting little nerd project for the mid day.  Lol

heh...once I saw that mid level deck clear Jaffrey and there was that typical low overcast line not moving through the Monadnocks I knew this afternoon was going to be screwed up here. Yeah, I think we do get some breaks, but there's enough low level moisture entrenched that I think it'll quickly end up BKN again and give the mosquitoes just enough energy to get them really hungry this Friday evening.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I put it less considering it hasn't happened in at least 70 years, but its increasingly possible...sure.

See...I feel uneasy with this mode of thinking ^ 

Simple logic, the climate is unstable.  In this case, moving in a predictive +delta  

                                    Climate cannot = D(climate) 

Reliance/assumptions footed upon a past climate that was not in the same delta ( changing...), makes using that in present era, dicey for me.

That said, I also see the winters pattern behaviors as being effected in the same way over the last 10 years, doing so, regardless of ENSO this, or polar index decadal that, or PDO/AMO ... solar dogs and cats. It's not only an homage to the notion that past climate is less reliable, but it also tells me that there is an unknown forcing here that could very well mean that winter distribution of cold and snow will continue to result in unexpected ways. 

I short, 70 years means less to me in delat(climate), and then also adding trend of observable/objective pattern analsys/biases over recency ... 40 years ago, if some said to me, 'that hasn't happen in 70 years' I'd be more impressed than saying so in 2022, when climate oddities are raining.    

 

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I knew last Sunday and Monday ...during that rare utopia weather landing cookie-cutter perfect on the Holiday necessity and mirth, we were going to pay a persecution tax for it by spending at least as much time the other way, and then some. 

However, there's a hidden incentive in the notion that it landed Tue-Thur morning ( so far on the latter), because unless one's retired or working from home, or just has the luxury of every day being "Sunday" - it's more important that relay into crudsville happened in this order.

But we didn’t . There was no low clouds and fog. Many posters remarked how it underperformed. The sun was out for periods every day this week . Inland at least . Yesterday was a warm humid partly sunny day with dews in the mid 60’s. Even Wednesday.. the worst day had some morning sun and temps well into the 60’s

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

But there may be a tipping point. I still think we're due to pull something more exotic off heat wise in the coming years. most of the rest of the country has done it. We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow. We've found ways to muck it up with North Atlantic junk or dews reducing the thermodynamic heating capabilities so far. But at some point one of those 98/75 days is going to end up 105/60. I know we had this convo a little bit back, but you were probably checked out then after winter was kaput.

For some reason I'm having trouble getting font to bold ... but,

"We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow"   I could not agree more vehemently.  We're playing with fire.   It's a matter of time.  Personally? I'm certain. I keep seeing us miss, just oh so close... Like a big right hand hitter lifting fly balls to the warning track 'cause he's a fraction of angle off on the baseball that game - it doesn't mean he's gonna fly out all season.

In that metaphor, the 'season' being the next 10 .. 20 .. 50 years..etc.    In recent years, that 2017 historic non-hydrostatic height balloon over eastern mid latitude N/A ...did not have a SW heat ejection plugged into it.   Contrasting, we may observe those ejections mangled into flatter, or too transient ridge scenarios that offer other problems not allowing free/synergistic temperature rises... 

It kind of reminds me of that February, 2015 - using the antithesis.  Earlier in January that winter ...I recall saying the pattern was playing with fire ( weird word choice), because these obscene cold air masses were knifing in for 24 to 36 hours, rolling out and then it would rain - the S/W frequency was there, and they were potent.  We just needed the polar to sync up - it was a temporal spacing issue.  Boom -

We've been avoiding the dire heat scenario by 'luck' is some senses of it all.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But we didn’t . There was no low clouds and fog. Many posters remarked how it underperformed. The sun was out for periods every day this week . Inland at least . Yesterday was a warm humid partly sunny day with dews in the mid 60’s

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

[kdxken]

Stein:

There’s no chance of any rain on Sunday and that is my pick of the weekend. I’ll go out in a limb and say it’s nearly a perfect day with temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, along with sunshine and light winds. This will be a quintessential gorgeous June day from the 5:08 a.m. sunrise to the 8:18 p.m. sunset.

Nice weather continues into early next week with the next chance of showers coming sometime in the middle of the week. I don’t see any early heat on the horizon.

 

The frail shut-ins sitting next to their basement humidifiers cowering. They may even have to go outside.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See...I feel uneasy with this mode of thinking ^ 

Simple logic, the climate is unstable.  In this case, moving in a predictive +delta  

                                    Climate cannot = D(climate) 

Reliance/assumptions footed upon a past climate that was not in the same delta ( changing...), makes using that in present era, dicey for me.

That said, I also see the winters pattern behaviors as being effected in the same way over the last 10 years, doing so, regardless of ENSO this, or polar index decadal that, or PDO/AMO ... solar dogs and cats. It's not only an homage to the notion that past climate is less reliable, but it also tells me that there is an unknown forcing here that could very well mean that winter distribution of cold and snow will continue to result in unexpected ways. 

I short, 70 years means less to me in delat(climate), and then also adding trend of observable/objective pattern analsys/biases over recency ... 40 years ago, if some said to me, 'that hasn't happen in 70 years' I'd be more impressed than saying so in 2022, when climate oddities are raining.    

 

Yea, well I said "increasingly possible".

I get that the climate is changing, but 70 years of data isn't worthless...

[dendrite]

ESE flow east of the terrain. NW flow into W MA/NY. Need to flip that flow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

Nobody pays that much attention to that part of Connecticut . It’s a E SNE forum and as we know the temps are often 15 f different between western SNE and “Emass”

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Gorgeous afternoon here.  Full sun and mid 70s.

[Damage In Tolland]

The North Atlantic is never your friend . Unless it’s a firehose storm. Other than that ..live  as far away from it as you can . Pretty simple 

[ineedsnow]

Can the long range NAM be right just once

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The North Atlantic is never your friend . Unless it’s a firehose storm. Other than that ..live  as far away from it as you can . Pretty simple 

The ocean is larger variance....yea, they get porked more, but you will never see a storm where you are the magnitude of what the cape saw in Jan 2005.

Nor will I.

[Damage In Tolland]

We furnace! Torch!!

 

 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ocean is larger variance....yea, they get porked more, but you will never see a storm where you are the magnitude of what the cape saw in Jan 2005.

Nor will I.

Somewhere in some dimension someone is posting how much snow fell at West Harwich, Barnstable, Massachusetts, USA right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Dews Coc k dews …..

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dews Coc k dews …..

 

Dews gone ???? 75/68 here 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Dews gone ???? 75/68 here 

Mines 65.2. We still dew

 

Though a couple deranged posters claim it’s been weeks and more weeks of Coc k lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mines 65.2. We still dew

 

Though a couple deranged posters claim it’s been weeks and more weeks of Coc k lol

Ya I know our home stations are higher with all the vegetation , airports are around 60. But it’s def not dry yet. HRRR actually raises dews a bit through 10pm before we dry out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah... it's called the American Weather Forums Twilight Zone addition

[powderfreak]

72/54 and beautiful.  Nice breeze.