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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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9 hours ago, dendrite said:

MSP has done it in May...did it a few years ago too. And then they had 106F in 1934.

They have some big numbers from those dust bowl days.

I guess I misheard the report.  They did set the daily record for the high at least. 100F.  They had hit 100 in May of 2018.   Their all time record is from 1917.  Jerry might recall that one

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25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I guess I misheard the report.  They did set the daily record for the high at least. 100F.  They had hit 100 in May of 2018.   Their all time record is from 1917.  Jerry might recall that one

Yeah not sure. I see their all-timer as 108° in 1936. 

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Short-lived mild up for the weekend. Thankfully the dews won't be bad. I guess we have to have at least one warmish day this summer.

 

"

Closed low finally begins to kick east and offshore Fri, yielding a
drying and warming trend, that continues into the weekend with
height rises. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, and it will feel
warmer with dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not oppressive, but
definitely a different airmass than recent days. Next trough/cold
front approaches SNE late Sun/Sun night into Monday, per ensembles.
Hence the next chance of showers and T-storms."
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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

On dead trees the section near the roots tends to be less stable and compressed. Also it's easier to get out of the way while standing than bent over if something starts going wrong. If the wood looks good after I fell the tree I'll cut the remainder.

I do the same, I leave enough so if cut it I get the size splits I want.

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16 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Now that we're over the hump and heading down the other side of the solstice, I wonder if we'll see any signs like this in the coming season.

No photo description available.

Hump? .. I guess the solar hump?

Climate should be one's relevant metric, and that's long about July 21.

Sun doesn't mean shit ...other than maintaining surface life on this planet - but that's another discussion.  Lol.  No, we're not over any 'hump'

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is just utterly depressing. I feel like Frosty the Snowman with someone slowly removing my top hat and laughing as I slowly melt away into a puddle of nothing-ness. 

There are aspects to offer some minoring ...if 'better than nothing' entertainment.

Like ...this closed low - it appears more 500 to 300 mb tropospheric, and not really reflected very well below those levels.   That offers a clue to some lag instability onward tru later Thursday into Friday ..when the lower levels tend to improve while radiative forcing ( sun bombardment) sets the sky a-day glow...

No one asked ...but I also suspect that if we set up a quasi-stationary band of training rains that pivots slowly thru the area while it rots into a miasma of low level left over moisture with the sun lasing through it, we probably end up more DP rich than the models are indicating at that time.  So you uncomfortable fetish types ...? Don't grouse, better times may not be too far off.   I mean there's no "back side" to that mess once that thing gets kicked out.. It just sort of emerges with 850 mb > + 14C over top ...with no CAA having mixed out the low levels.   The synoptics look that way, yet the machine and 2-m DP products are lower...  heh, we'll see.  Higher theta-e blue tinting the distant hills .. offers some corrective SB CAPE suggestion

Point is, it's not like there is a dearth of anything at all to at least wonder about - believe me... there are far worse uninspired ruts ...I've seen some 45 day long eternal unrelenting stretches in the winter months of the 1980s... where one become so accustomed to nothingness, a mere flurry inspired giddiness.  

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hump? .. I guess the solar hump?

Climate should be one's relevant metric, and that's long about July 21.

Sun doesn't mean shit ...other than maintaining surface life on this planet - but that's another discussion.  Lol.  No, we're not over any 'hump'

Right, we are actually heading into the hottest part of the summer.  8 weeks and then we are over the hump. 

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Seasonal lag ... a very normal aspect resulting from the time-dependence of the greater planetary system to fully absorb and thus be forced by solar variance ... was supposed to always protect places like San Francisco, Chicago and New York City ( I'd include Boston, but clearly New England is a micro-asshole-cold-climate that isn't really even on Earth for f's sake).

Said lag did not collocate the highest intensity radiation of the solar year, with the Earth's ability to store it in the biggest 'atmospheric battery' ridges.  That all-important month of lag, spares. Obviously it follows, that is why climate shows that although big numbers happen in June, there were always less frequently observed than July and even early Augusts ..

But that's changing, because of CC.  A hidden charm of the climate change, when that change is going up... eventually ( like gee ... the Pacific NW in June 2021 ) those two aspects will have increasing ability to happen in tandem.    So we'll go on and keep getting killer heat and desiccation events through July's and August's of the future.. .but these Pac NW events that coincide with the acme of the solar curve are less prevented.

Pretty much any time spanning within mid April to early September can create feed-back heat. But during June ( really late May to early July) when the sun is at it's most punishing intensity ... heat is extra special.

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Major differences between some of the models. With these differences, however, it should be noted there is strong agreement that there will be a narrow north-to-south axis of showers and areas of heavier rains it's just a question of where the diffuse warm front and stronger llvl forcing setup. West of 91 obviously stands the best chance for some heavier rains but that could also be as far west as the HV. Really challenging forecast here b/c the warm front (as diffuse as it is) is quite sloped. 

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47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Major differences between some of the models. With these differences, however, it should be noted there is strong agreement that there will be a narrow north-to-south axis of showers and areas of heavier rains it's just a question of where the diffuse warm front and stronger llvl forcing setup. West of 91 obviously stands the best chance for some heavier rains but that could also be as far west as the HV. Really challenging forecast here b/c the warm front (as diffuse as it is) is quite sloped. 

short version, concept agreement ... very little agreement on details.

longer version, probably because this closing ordeal is really A, not that strong, and B, ...most of it's mechanics are elevated.   It's an odd behavior - really, it's like what we might see in February, with a closing 500 mb surface that retrogrades. During the the cold season, we delight in that behavior for obvious reasons.   But unlike the cold season...we don't have intense lower tropospheric, lateral baroclinic gradients ...and strong frontal identification for structuring UVM/jet responses closer to the sfc --> cyclogenetic results.   

So the models are printing QPF and axis for focus sort of like spraying as a result lacking those foci.   It's 'sort of' a red flag that the whole operation could be over done, or...even underdone, if some region stalls a rain band. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

short version, concept agreement ... very little agreement on details.

longer version, probably because this closing ordeal is really A, not that strong, and B, ...most of it's mechanics are elevated.   It's an odd behavior - really, it's like what we might see in February, with a closing 500 mb surface that retrogrades. During the the cold season, we delight in that behavior for obvious reasons.   But unlike the cold season...we don't have intense lower tropospheric, lateral baroclinic gradients ...and strong frontal identification for structuring UVM/jet responses closer to the sfc --> cyclogenetic results.   

So the models are printing QPF and axis for focus sort of like spraying as a result lacking those foci.   It's 'sort of' a red flag that the whole operation could be over done, or...even underdone, if some region stalls a rain band. 

Agreed...this could be overdone or underdone. I think there arguments that can be made for both cases. While we don't have those intense lower baroclinic gradients like we do during the cool season, we do have higher instability so the question becomes, how much does that compensate? But in the essence, PWATs are very high along a narrow corridor and you do have a strengthening southerly component to the llvl flow which should aid in convergence along the boundary. This may be a situation where western areas cash in again when it's eastern areas which need it most :lol: 

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