Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: PLEASEEEEEEE It's a transition pattern, though. Caveat emptor on that "zonality" In a scalar sense, sure... I've seen the operationals and ens means; that's the gist of the blend. However, the various sources that cover/forecast the mass fields indicate a PNA that is going ↓ ...gathering more weight - so a trend to get more so too. It appears to me the different operational run "extended" ( in quotes because it's nebular and not necessarily the same amounts among them in space and time ) ranges have been resisting that mode change. The last EOFs provided numerical values that would sufficiently signal more ridging potential ( for a change ) east of 100 W than we are seeing. That's not intending to refute the flatter look, despite the subtext ... I mean sometimes the operational runs, ..particularly when they agree, can win over the telecon/ens mean. But just means to be leery. It matters re heat and convection trajectories is all... The PNA is supposed to be losing (seasonal) correlative value but.. I don't find that assumption to be necessarily "AS" true as say 30 years ago. Little longer hypothesis ... My personal speculation is that as we continue to evolve through this CC era, that is related to why we've been observing unusually strong mid latitude/ mid troposphere geostrophic wind velocities ... lapsing over into springs later and later in recent decade(s). I feel that CC is causal in that emerging aspect ... ( whole 'nother popsicle headache as to why, and this write is already stressing the attention of the reader in this on-setting zeitgeist of tweeting virtuosity ... heh, an entirely separate kind of climate evolution). Gaslighting parentheticals aside ... ( lol ), the logic goes like: faster wind --> wave construction --> R-wave structures. That maintaining coherence later and later, means the telecons correlations mathematically have to persist. So the ultra short version, the PNA ain't dead yet. That said, I'm wondering if we may see the zonal start looking more ridgy over the eastern continental mid latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a transition pattern, though. Caveat emptor on that "zonality" In a scalar sense, sure... I've seen the operationals and ens means; that's the gist of the blend. However, the various sources that cover/forecast the mass fields indicate a PNA that is going ↓ ...gathering more weight - so a trend to get more so too. It appears to me the different operational run "extended" ( in quotes because it's nebular and not necessarily the same amounts among them in space and time ) ranges have been resisting that mode change. The last EOFs provided numerical values that would sufficiently signal more ridging potential ( for a change ) east of 100 W than we are seeing. That's not intending to refute the flatter look, despite the subtext ... I mean sometimes the operational run win over the telecon/ens means derivatives. But just means to be leery. It matters re heat and convection trajectories is all... The PNA is supposed to be losing (seasonal) correlative value but.. I don't find that assumption to be necessarily "AS" true as say 30 years ago. Little longer hypothesis ... My personal speculation is that as we continue to evolve through this CC era, that is related to why we've been observing unusually strong mid latitude/ mid troposphere geostrophic wind velocities ... lapsing over into springs later and later in recent decade(s). I feel the CC causal in that emerging aspect ... ( whole 'nother popsicle headache as to why, and this write is already stressing the attention of the reader in this on-setting tweeting zeitgeist's virtuosity ... an entirely separate kind of climate evolution). Gaslighting parentheticals aside ... ( lol ), the logic goes like: faster wind --> wave construction --> R-wave structures. That maintaining coherence later and later, means the telecons correlations mathematically have to persist. So the ultra short version, the PNA ain't dead yet. That said, I'm wondering if we may see the zonal start looking more ridgy over the eastern continental mid latitudes. The past several years have featured some anomalously early season riding and subsequently anomalously strong upper troughs within the CONUS and certainly with that you would expect a stronger jet stream. The prospects of CC would certainly be a player in this. Once we're able to break that pesky vortex the flood gates should open to get higher heat/humidity in here. This doesn't mean it will be prolonged, especially if the jet stream continues to be loaded with perturbations, but we'll get these bursts of heat/humidity in here. Once these heat ridges become established across the southern states they are very hard to break down. This circles back to the CC idea, but it seems the past several years these big heat ridges have become established earlier than usual across the southern states (whether this be the West, Southwest, or southern Plains) and with that we've seen much earlier periods of higher heat/humidity too. Even if we don't get the full flexing of the ridging here...that doesn't mean we won't see big heat/humidity. If anything, hopefully being on the crest of any ridging would yield some convectively active periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I just want my pool to warm up... still too cold my liking. Send in the Sonoran School's out apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: But flakes likely fly Saturday Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like heat comes in late month, but again after more lower heights relatively speaking. Still don’t see a prolonged heat signal. Nobody wants swamp ass This is beautiful weather 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 47 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Never gonna happen but still for the date. You know... in the myriad of internal voices that combine to create the total din of internal thoughts this morning ... this occurred to me. The "Year without a summer" - 1816. Tambora had ignited such wonderful displays of sunset skies during the presaging times since that volcanic throat tried to pop the top of the atmosphere and send a geo-belch into near orbit... In a symbolic way, those splendorous distractions were like nature's "red light" to stop and take notice - not merely art. So the consequences set in ... and in that year without a summer, annuls that pertain to New England: 'frost was observed in every month' - I mean check that, but I'm preeety sure I read that took place. But what came to mind was that when we discuss climate change, we are really only discussing decimals over the course of a 30 years. Well, perhaps whole degree(s) at local climate scales - but over the global integral..etc. So, the 1816 summer failure took place in world where the temperature declined by all of 0.4-0.7 °C (0.7-1 °F). Which doesn't seem like that much - right? But that little amount meant frost ( and probably 3,500' elevation snow if any civility were present up there, in that era). So what I am getting at, even though ( and no doubt!) the next IPCC report will continue to doom humanity, as well... , NASA will report June as number 2 or 3 all-time hottest Junes since our species could give a shit) it doesn't thus intuitively 'seem' like we are so far gone up the scale that we can't f'up a summer in New England. Jesus christ.. . Frankly, I have never seen a weather pattern behavior so tediously petty in creating cold inserts reasons, specifically targeting Logan airport, such as I have seen happen in the last 5 years... And of course the surrounding region going down with it's like collateral bonus damage. We just cannot seem to "be allowed" to experience what the world has been - meanwhile, we have to capitulate based on the overwhelming impact of nocturnal anomalies... ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nobody wants swamp ass This is beautiful weather What is ? Today, tomorrow ...or Sunday - You have three disparate sensible types rolling through. I guess it almost seem useless to the point of nihilism to even expound up either, when neither can persist around here long enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We get them now and then... pretty much yearly. I mean, look at last 4th of July It happens Yeah like when it's 62F and screaming south winds on NYE, no one is obsessing over it and posting 20 times a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, kdxken said: School's out apparently Not until tomorrow afternoon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah like when it's 62F and screaming south winds on NYE, no one is obsessing over it and posting 20 times a day lol Well... when that happens on Christmas we do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Well... when that happens on Christmas we do Yea, all we hear about in December is the impending grinch....before, during and after. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not until tomorrow afternoon! Melina starts counting the days before April break. lol "Graduation" today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nobody wants swamp ass This is beautiful weather And for the few that do why don't you head to the Midwest? I mean you love heat and humidity right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, kdxken said: And for the few that do why don't you head to the Midwest? I mean you love heat and humidity right? Some have already organized a trip to the midwest....notice the clothing some are wearing to ward off the chill of New England June summer.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: But flakes likely fly Saturday Morning AFD from GYX mentioned the S word for higher elevations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, tamarack said: Morning AFD from GYX mentioned the S word for higher elevations. ..so that is where Chris Sale is hiding out... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Marginal risk for tomorrow. That’s as good as a Great Plains outbreak to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..so that is where Chris Sale is hiding out... Are you saying h's a flake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Are you saying h's a flake? Now why would I say that about a player who cut up an entire team's set of uniforms?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 hmm latest HRRR has some thunderstorms moving across CT late evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: hmm latest HRRR has some thunderstorms moving across CT late evening Send in the national guards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Definitely some bust potential with the weekend forecast. 12z Gfs is chilly for many on Saturday temps drop to 40s and 50s Saturday afternoon and evening. Only 45-50 for highs Sunday out East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Definitely some bust potential with the weekend forecast. 12z Gfs is chilly for many on Saturday temps drop to 40s and 50s Saturday afternoon and evening. Only 45-50 for highs Sunday out East! GFS backing west. Probably not done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like heat comes in late month, but again after more lower heights relatively speaking. Still don’t see a prolonged heat signal. I wonder at times if that adjective ever applies around here... But I guess if we mean prolonged relative to our climate? Sure - 2 days instead of 10 minutes... we don't see that either. GFS is also - as an aside ..- relentless in its pursuit to limit heat here to one day. It'll sometimes balloon a non hydrostatic ridge that's truly awesome, ...go look at the surface evolution, it's 12 hour of heat and it has a big sfc high wedging in the back end, while holding back warm fronts forever in the front. It may not be right - per se.... But, since we get f'ed out of heat anyway apparently at least excuse imagined, the model's technological evolution is at least heading in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS backing west. Probably not done. Low clouds and marine influence will probably back west to about Tolland county and stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I just want my pool to warm up... still too cold my liking. Send in the Sonoran BN to end of June? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wasn’t ginxy’s area just dumped on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wasn’t ginxy’s area just dumped on? Cocorahs says that "moderate" area just got the most rainfall in the past week . Ginxy to Taunton especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 wow 12z gem is an inferno later next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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