40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At least models slowed down front enough to make Friday look a bit interesting!!!! Probably just teasing though Hey, if I can't win in winter. I'll take solace in flannel on daddy day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For **** sake at least let it be 75-80. Everyone can enjoy that. 10 of 15 days in June so far up here have been right about that level. Last 5 maxes including today so far are 75/79/77/77/77. Last 7 days of May were all 74-82F maxes. It's been pretty incredible to me how many days since May 1st have found their way to max temps right in the sweet spot of 70-80F type stuff. I guess we are due for something different and it sucks that it's Father's Day weekend it decides to crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Fantasy land goofus but lots of afternoon 50s and 60s in the extended. No thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 10 of 15 days in June so far up here have been right about that level. Last 5 maxes including today so far are 75/79/77/77/77. Last 7 days of May were all 74-82F maxes. It's been pretty incredible to me how many days since May 1st have found their way to max temps right in the sweet spot of 70-80F type stuff. I guess we are due for something different and it sucks that it's Father's Day weekend it decides to crap out. It’s the op GFS at day 4 lol. Tossed . People actually think that will verify ? WTF. The freaking out over nothing is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s the op GFS at day 4 lol. Tossed . People actually think that will verify ? WTF. The freaking out over nothing is crazy Euro sucked too. This blows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Hopefully Christmas is a torch again with similar temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s the op GFS at day 4 lol. Tossed . People actually think that will verify ? WTF. The freaking out over nothing is crazy It's not just the GFS. I don't know about anyone freaking out, lol. It is what it is on the guidance if you look at any of it. The 12z NAM has this for 2-M temps late afternoon on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro sucked too. This blows. It’ll be in the 70’s both days and dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's not just the GFS. I don't know about anyone freaking out, lol. It is what it is on the guidance if you look at any of it. The 12z NAM has this for 2-M temps late afternoon on Saturday. You guys are all completely flipping out over an op run on a shit model . Relax.. it won’t verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You guys are all completely flipping out over an op run on a shit model . Relax.. it won’t verify I don't think anyone is completely flipping out . Highs in the 70s and two beautiful days are a straight wishcast based on the available guidance. Will it be 40s, no I'd bet against record low afternoon temperatures. Probably 60s for maxes but what the bulk of the afternoons are matters. You keep mentioning "one op run" and folks that actually look at models can tell you it's on all of them. It's a weather forum, we discuss the model data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 I'm not so sure we see widespread 70's...even down here. That's a pretty chilly airmass and looking at soundings, even with the mixing being advertised we may struggle to get into the 70's. NNE could be really screwed b/c mixing will be very poor up there. The wildcard may be cloud cover and how quickly skies clear out Friday evening/overnight before more clouds roll in Saturday. If there is widespread clearing Friday night and temperatures drop...it's going to be tough to get them to skyrocket Saturday. Obviously the strong sun angle is going to do it's work and we'll probably see that have the best influence farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Just freak and flip out and wring hands in consternation lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just freak and flip out and wring hands in consternation lol We will tip our cap to you if your Davis station records max temps in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Scooter may need a wellness check 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scooter may need a wellness check And some others may need a mental status check waiting for the weekend warmth. I maybe on call this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We will tip our cap to you if your Davis station records max temps in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Yup .. 60’s and 70’s for the 6 state region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro sucked too. This blows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 15, 2022 Author Share Posted June 15, 2022 2 hours ago, kdxken said: Not too shabby in Brookline Plenty shabby trying to get anywhere. My house is 0.75 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup .. 60’s and 70’s for the 6 state region Ok so sneaking 60s in there now. Agreed for sure on 60s for your station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s the op GFS at day 4 lol. Tossed . People actually think that will verify ? WTF. The freaking out over nothing is crazy Aauuh... . This isn't 1994... Day 4 is a little more dependable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Where's @OceanStWx What does the black contoured MCD mean (obviously has something to do with TOR watch b/c it says) Mesoscale Discussion 1176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Areas affected...northeast IA...extreme southeast MN...portions of southern/central WI and extreme northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151822Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to develop across northeast IA and spread northeast in the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, damaging gusts and hail will all be possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 20z. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data from KDMX indicate deepening cumulus across northeast IA to the northeast of a surface low and in the vicinity of a surface warm front. More isolated cumulus has also started to develop across southern WI. Latest water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave impulse now ejecting across eastern NE/southeast SD will lift east/northeast, providing increasing ascent across the region within the next couple of hours. Some weak inhibition likely remains in the vicinity of the surface boundary, though continued heating and increasing ascent should rapidly erode any remaining inhibition over the next hour. Strong heating south of the surface boundary across IA into central WI has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s amid upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. Relatively warm temperatures between 850-700 mb will maintain modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, but the very moist boundary layer is still supporting moderate instability across the region. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will further support robust, well-organized convection. Some uncertainty remains with regards to convective mode, but semi-discrete supercells appear possible at least initially in convective evolution. VWP data from KARX already shows enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation. Additionally, strong low-level instability with enhance vorticity in the vicinity of the surface front suggests increased tornado potential will accompany any semi-discrete convection. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale as a 35+ kt south/southwesterly low-level jet increases by late afternoon/early evening. This will result in an increasing risk for more widespread damaging gusts, though mesovortex tornadoes also will continue to be possible given favorable low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ok so sneaking 60s in there now. Agreed for sure on 60s for your station. The subtle art of hedging seems like 75-80 has sailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Summer solstice snow as nearby as NF... Granted, it's the Canadian but you know ... I remember the sardonic jest a couple years ago in a post, words to the affect of '...the models won't stop until they succeed at snowing in June,' when extolling the very obvious oddity that's become a leitmotif ... A recurring theme/tendency to attempt to do this below. Meteorological spacing? That's next door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Just now, weatherwiz said: Where's @OceanStWx What does the black contoured MCD mean (obviously has something to do with TOR watch b/c it says) Mesoscale Discussion 1176 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Areas affected...northeast IA...extreme southeast MN...portions of southern/central WI and extreme northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 151822Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convection is expected to develop across northeast IA and spread northeast in the next couple of hours. Tornadoes, damaging gusts and hail will all be possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 20z. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar data from KDMX indicate deepening cumulus across northeast IA to the northeast of a surface low and in the vicinity of a surface warm front. More isolated cumulus has also started to develop across southern WI. Latest water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave impulse now ejecting across eastern NE/southeast SD will lift east/northeast, providing increasing ascent across the region within the next couple of hours. Some weak inhibition likely remains in the vicinity of the surface boundary, though continued heating and increasing ascent should rapidly erode any remaining inhibition over the next hour. Strong heating south of the surface boundary across IA into central WI has allowed temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 80s amid upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. Relatively warm temperatures between 850-700 mb will maintain modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, but the very moist boundary layer is still supporting moderate instability across the region. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will further support robust, well-organized convection. Some uncertainty remains with regards to convective mode, but semi-discrete supercells appear possible at least initially in convective evolution. VWP data from KARX already shows enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs supporting rotation. Additionally, strong low-level instability with enhance vorticity in the vicinity of the surface front suggests increased tornado potential will accompany any semi-discrete convection. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale as a 35+ kt south/southwesterly low-level jet increases by late afternoon/early evening. This will result in an increasing risk for more widespread damaging gusts, though mesovortex tornadoes also will continue to be possible given favorable low-level shear. ...it's like the Bubonic Plague of super cells, "the black death outbreak" muah hahahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Euro for the weekend.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 That’s a bit better… sneaks many just over the 70F threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: That’s a bit better… sneaks many just over the 70F threshold. 71 is fine with me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 71 is fine with me. Better than the 55F up here both days, ha. Thats nice weather, briefly hitting 70-71F with dews around 40F and strong downslope dandy NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Better than the 55F up here both days, ha. Thats nice weather, briefly hitting 70-71F with dews around 40F and strong downslope dandy NW wind. I'm sure we'll pay for this on the back nine of summer and early on in fall, but I will take the low dews as long as I can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now