June pattern and forecast discussion

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I grew up in E Cambridge in the 70’s, with my neighborhood clan swinging an old shovel handle at a pink rubber ball and an abandoned brick building as our backstop. 

#citytough

We used to tape one of those skinny yellow bats and play with a tennis ball. Fun times in the summer heat.

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op and EPS cooler for weekend. Gonna be cool in and up.

I doubt it's near this but holy crap.  18z Saturday 2-M temps.  Upper 30s Adirondacks?  Even upper 40s to near 50 down in NW CT.  This would be wild at 2pm on Saturday.  The ALY zones are probably coldest relative to normal.

[powderfreak]

NAM at 84 hours though... much more cold LBSW in NY State and a nice afternoon eastern/southern NE.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

NAM at 84 hours though... much more cold LBSW in NY State and a nice afternoon eastern/southern NE.

We pray.

[BrianW]

Its been way above normal here on the shoreline. HVN is +3.8. At my location I have hit 80+ almost everyday this month. Only below 80 high days here are June 1,3,5,12.

Cooling degree days are currently  double the average as well. AC has been running hard this month. 

 

 

[mreaves]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I doubt it's near this but holy crap.  18z Saturday 2-M temps.  Upper 30s Adirondacks?  Even upper 40s to near 50 down in NW CT.  This would be wild at 2pm on Saturday.  The ALY zones are probably coldest relative to normal.

Seems likely that graduation will be inside

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I doubt it's near this but holy crap.  18z Saturday 2-M temps.  Upper 30s Adirondacks?  Even upper 40s to near 50 down in NW CT.  This would be wild at 2pm on Saturday.  The ALY zones are probably coldest relative to normal.

Someone in ECT will post a pic of a rooftop bar with one burly man pounding beers in shorts… claiming that summeh is relentless.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We pray.

...but..but...TORCH?

[jbenedet]

90% of winter: +NAO

2/3 spring: -NAO

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I grew up in E Cambridge in the 70’s, with my neighborhood clan swinging an old shovel handle at a pink rubber ball and an abandoned brick building as our backstop. 

#citytough

We black taped a cork and used a whittled skinny stick. We also taped up and nailed broken bats I got from being bat boy for the Men's summer league. Wiffle balls were the best invention ever.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Someone in ECT will post a pic of a rooftop bar with one burly man pounding beers in shorts… claiming that summeh is relentless.

He lives in Central Ct

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

Its been way above normal here on the shoreline. HVN is +3.8. At my location I have hit 80+ almost everyday this month. Only below 80 high days here are June 1,3,5,12.

Cooling degree days are currently  double the average as well. AC has been running hard this month. 

 

 

Huh, that’s funny. I’ve been thinking how comfortable this month has been relative to recent Junes. Never would’ve guessed we were running so warm. 

[Cyclone-68]

Craven Brooks index over 20000 Friday. Never heard of that one before 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I grew up in E Cambridge in the 70’s, with my neighborhood clan swinging an old shovel handle at a pink rubber ball and an abandoned brick building as our backstop. 

#citytough

Modified stickball 

[Damage In Tolland]

Not sure who he is.. but I live in NE CT

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Craven Brooks index over 20000 Friday. Never heard of that one before 

What is it?

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What is it?

It incorporates a bunch of different parameters and correlates to severe and significant severe potential. I think it was a widely used index back in the day but there have been so much advances in severe weather study that I don't think it's really as widely used anymore. I used to go crazy with that index in the late 2000's  

[Cold Miser]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure who he is.. but I live in NE CT

I would say the border from NE to Central is Willington/Tolland line. ...But it's a tough call. It's almost as if that line wants to run right through the middle of Tolland too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually... now that I look at the history over at CPC, re the NAO ... that distinction does not appear to be correct.

The NAO has in fact, since March 1, averaged positive.  There have been few negative interludes along the way ...but it "looks" in the range of 57 vs 43%, positive vs negative weighting. 

Which leads me to my on-going contention and consternation regarding this trough incursion that slices along the NE coast that I've been musing about for days - it has/is not really been very well supported by the NAO ... which just spent the last ten or so days decidedly positive and only looks to gradually decline to neutral.  That is not a "park deep vortex between Maine and NF" signal, in fact...quite the opposite. We should be stretching the flow and sending ORD heat right to Caribou given this recent history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

...It seems, despite the fact that the PNA index is supposed to go to correlation sleep this time of year, it's modeled presentation could be more rooted in the non-linearity of wave forcing off the Pacific ..as seen imm below.   That's two weeks of solid +PNA... The heat in Chicago and surrounding region of the conus is actually NOT a good fit for where this curve traversed, but it could be why we are also seeing this big rolling buzz-saw carving along southern Canada going forward thru the week.   There's conflicts in the mass field forcing.  The subtropical ridge signal is clearly attempting to bloom - perhaps ahead of climate/seasonal signal ... While this over active polar jet, which does fit the +PNA, is imposing that anomaly from the top.  It's interesting...

And then who can ignore the weighty -PNA out there...

This is what has me disturbed a little for bigger heat problems.  There is vastly more negative soil moisture anomalies over mid latitude conus than the other way around leading, and if the +PNA does collapse and reverse modes that heavy handedly, the erstwhile STR signal becomes unimpeded.  We could see constructive interference much bigger ordeal than just a Corn Belt/lower Lakes...  

Just waiting on the operational model to come around.   Lol, they probably will.... Sep 3rd thru the 15th ...then again around Xmas

 

[kdxken]

Not too shabby in Brookline

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually... now that I look at the history over at CPC, re the NAO ... that distinction does not appear to be correct.

The NAO has in fact, since March 1, averaged positive.  There have been few negative interludes along the way ...but it "looks" in the range of 57 vs 43%, positive vs negative weighting. 

Which leads me to my on-going contention and consternation regarding this trough incursion that slices along the NE coast that I've been musing about for days - it has/is not really been very well supported by the NAO ... which just spent the last ten or so days decidedly positive and only looks to gradually decline to neutral.  That is not a "park deep vortex between Maine and NF" signal, in fact...quite the opposite. We should be stretching the flow and sending ORD heat right to Caribou given this recent history: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

...It seems, despite the fact that the PNA index is supposed to go to correlation sleep this time of year, it's modeled presentation could be more rooted in the non-linearity of wave forcing off the Pacific ..as seen imm below.   That's two weeks of solid +PNA... The heat in Chicago and surrounding region of the conus is actually NOT a good fit for where this curve traversed, but it could be why we are also seeing this big rolling buzz-saw carving along southern Canada going forward thru the week.   There's conflicts in the mass field forcing.  The subtropical ridge signal is clearly attempting to bloom - perhaps ahead of climate/seasonal signal ... While this over active polar jet, which does fit the +PNA, is imposing that anomaly from the top.  It's interesting...

And then who can ignore the weighty -PNA out there...

If the NAO stay neutral... this is what has me disturbed a little for a big heat problems.  There is vastly more negative soil moisture anomalies over mid latitude conus than the other way around leading, and if the +PNA does collapse and reverse modes that heavy handedly avn, the erstwhile STR signal becomes unimpeded.  We could see constructive interference much bigger ordeal than just a Corn Belt/lower Lakes...  

Just waiting on the operational model to come around.   Lol, they probably will.... Sep 3rd thru the 15th ...then again around Xmas

 

Looking at the height anomalies since Mar 1 (top image) and since first of June (bottom image) I think sheds a bit more light into the influences the NAO has had on the pattern. Now...I think to fully quantify this a much more in-depth and thorough analysis would have to be conducted.

Anyways, this is why sometimes those charts alone are misleading as they don't give insight into structure and placement of the anomalies. Since March and June 1 you can see why the charts are yielding a more +NAO look as opposed to negative as the majority of the anomalies which lead to a +NAO are smack dab in the middle of the NAO domain (this is especially true since June 1. 

But looking closer, we can see a tripole of [positive] anomalies present. Once just south of Greenland which would indicate  a more southward displaced NAO and one just east of Greenland...and in between we've seen that pesky vortex northeast of Maine which has put a block on persistent higher heat/humidity from moving into our region. We've also seen a persistent troughing signal from the northern Plains poking into the Northeast. 

Great point too about the PNA. If you look at the structure of the PNA and then combined that with the southward-displaced block of the Arctic...that's pretty classic to get more of a trough signal here. If/when these features subside we are going to roast. 

 

 

[wx2fish]

12z gfs is a disaster this weekend, both days.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, wx2fish said:

12z gfs is a disaster this weekend, both days.

Congrats to those who live under bridges and bury bodies.

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looking at the height anomalies since Mar 1 (top image) and since first of June (bottom image) I think sheds a bit more light into the influences the NAO has had on the pattern. Now...I think to fully quantify this a much more in-depth and thorough analysis would have to be conducted.

Anyways, this is why sometimes those charts alone are misleading as they don't give insight into structure and placement of the anomalies. Since March and June 1 you can see why the charts are yielding a more +NAO look as opposed to negative as the majority of the anomalies which lead to a +NAO are smack dab in the middle of the NAO domain (this is especially true since June 1. 

But looking closer, we can see a tripole of [positive] anomalies present. Once just south of Greenland which would indicate  a more southward displaced NAO and one just east of Greenland...and in between we've seen that pesky vortex northeast of Maine which has put a block on persistent higher heat/humidity from moving into our region. We've also seen a persistent troughing signal from the northern Plains poking into the Northeast. 

Great point too about the PNA. If you look at the structure of the PNA and then combined that with the southward-displaced block of the Arctic...that's pretty classic to get more of a trough signal here. If/when these features subside we are going to roast.

 

.

Yeah ..good sleuthing re the NAO "idiosyncrasies"   I mean I was really just responding to the poster who mentioned the a spring that's been negative 2/3rds of the time.    It doesn't show up in the numerical/EOF derivatives - in fact the opposite.

But sure... if the NAO particular details have to work that hard to f'up the numerical signal well shit then - it only underscores my point from 10 years ago that the NAO is vastly over- f'ing rated.   Positive numerical curve looks like a block N of Maine?  That's a "nested anomaly" that skews the correlation -

Yup, we'll see on the speculative -PNA forcing, tho...  It's taking a long time to settle the positive mode off, but it is not cross the 0 SD terminator.  You know, as an afterthought ... the PNA's correlative weight diminishes during the summer - but that is a distinction based prior to CC attributed seasonal lag of stronger ambient polar jet tendencies.   Simple circuitry:  strong westerlies --> lingering R-waves ... --> means correlations persist. That simple chain of logic to me means the PNA isn't shut down just yet.

[CoastalWx]

Flannels for all on Father's Day. Epic.

[CoastalWx]

For **** sake at least let it be 75-80. Everyone can enjoy that.

[forkyfork]

it's coming. this is step 1

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ..good sleuthing re the NAO "idiosyncrasies"   I mean I was really just responding to the poster who mentioned the a spring that's been negative 2/3rds of the time.    It doesn't show up in the numerical/EOF derivatives - in fact the opposite.

But sure... if the NAO particular details have to work that hard to f'up the numerical signal well shit then - it only underscores my point from 10 years ago that the NAO is vastly over- f'ing rated.   Positive numerical curve looks like a block N of Maine?  That's a "nested anomaly" that skews the correlation -

Yup, we'll see on the speculative -PNA forcing, tho...  It's taking a long time to settle the positive mode off, but it is not cross the 0 SD terminator.  You know, as an afterthought ... the PNA's correlative weight diminishes during the summer - but that is a distinction based prior to CC attributed seasonal lag of stronger ambient polar jet tendencies.   Simple circuitry:  strong westerlies --> linginer R-waves ... --> means correlations persist. That simple change of logic to me means the PNA isn't shut down just yet.

I strongly agree with this. I think the NAO is overrated too and there is way too much emphasis on it. I think this idea came about from early-on research but ideas have not changed as research has progressed. Very similar to back in the day when many thought that a weak La Nina meant massive winters b/c of 95-96. 

But with these teleconnection patterns and indices it is way more complicated than "positive vs. negative". The structure of the anomalies, where the anomalies are located, how the structure is evolving all matters so much. 

I also don't think drawing a correlation to just one index alone provides much overall value with the exception being whether that index is in a very strong phase and is clearly dominating the pattern. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For **** sake at least let it be 75-80. Everyone can enjoy that.

At least models slowed down front enough to make Friday look a bit interesting!!!!

Probably just teasing though 

[dendrite]

Hoodies in Tolland?