June pattern and forecast discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This warm season has been a winner, so far....no complaints.

I'm sure we will get some dewy days, but its been manageable.

After the first week of Mehy, it’s been great. Mostly all coc with some hotter days lightly sprinkled in. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Reminds me a little of the 1995 circumstance ... We just couldn't get the models to construct any way to get the heat NE of an ~ BUF-PHL line, during that tremendous anomaly that took place in the Corn Belt and southern Lakes region that July.   NW barrier flow at mid levels..

The 1995 occurrence did not feature this sort of very deep N flow fisting due south across Quebec, but the ridge stayed anchored much in the same way.  That trough -btw- still quite frankly looks oddly forced.  I'm looking at the GEF individual ensemble members, and comparing them to the NAO's numerical forecast from CPC, and there really isn't a clear reason why the trough needs to physically do that - in any guidance Euro to GGEM for that matter.  It doesn't fit the classic R-wave synoptic/mechanical behavior very well.  With a +NAO in both the numerical curves, and ... the individual members showing negative hgt anomalies within the NAO's domain space, that actually argues for the ridge in the continental midriff to extend NE... Yet, it won't -

My best surmise is still what I suspect last week, that the heat itself may be causing a huge constructive interference with the ridge, such that flow needs to physically be forced S around the astern side of it... It's an emergent property/trough more so as a result of that construction, rather than a planetary signal arriving through wave translation. 

A potential clue to that causality, there really isn't as much of a coherent single S/W carving into the trough ...it's really more region that materializes as a spontaneously nadir.  The Euro's just filling it rather than moving it away.  Etc... It's a numerical trough off/downstream the big heat dome.  Speculative op-ed.

Maybe we can't get these big heat waves out there to really transport - or if so...it happens extraordinarily rarely.  1995 failed.  2012 failed...  Now this one.  that's 30 years and the big dragon heat seems to have all caused the same thing to happen - they instantiate a NW blocking flow that limits the transport of those air masses into the NE.   

We've had big heat here, obviously. But it may also explain why those bigger examples were always kept comparatively briefer in residency.  Interesting.  Either way, historically hot June there, forces us to have a temperate one here?  

The heat may be even worse for DSM-ORD-DTX in a week.  This is a "warm-up" heat wave. Heh.   Looking beyond at the GFS extended, similar phenomenon then brings life threatening heat to the SW and California...   Again, ... -PNA should not lead to +PNAP like it is selling though - so it's not likely correct.  This summer's 'playing with fire'

[MJO812]

Thank god the pattern hasn't been hot.

Who the hell wants heatwaves?

[weatherwiz]

In all seriousness...it's only mid-June lol. Probably up until recently (as in the past decade) have we ever really entered more consistent stretches of heat and humidity...and I'll define that as temperatures ~85 or greater with dewpoints > 65. Obviously these thresholds need to be adjusted for location (proximity to water, elevation, latitude). It really used to be like first few weeks of July for the big heat and then we would really crank dewpoints (>70) more like later part of July and August. 

[Great Snow 1717]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thank god the pattern hasn't been hot.

Who the hell wants heatwaves?

An instant nomination for post of the year!

[dendrite]

Hopefully we can get some heat in here soon.

[SnoSki14]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thank god the pattern hasn't been hot.

Who the hell wants heatwaves?

It's only mid June. 

Peak heat is still over a month away

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's only mid June. 

Peak heat is still over a month away

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been hot, so far. Its like failing to acknowledge how lame last December was because we hadn't yet reached peak climo.

[Cyclone-68]

I like the heat because it can bring the T-storms (at least theoretically)

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been hot, so far. Its like failing to acknowledge how lame last December was because we hadn't yet reached peak climo.

We've had a few hot days. Summer rarely has a grip this early.

[Whineminster]

Just now, dendrite said:

We've had a few hot days. Summer rarely has a grip this early.

It's almost July dude, if we don't get going on it now it's not a good outlook for HHH for any point this summer.  Heat begets heat

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's almost July dude, if we don't get going on it now it's not a good outlook for HHH for any point this summer.  Heat begets heat

Historically, most of our HHH periods come closer to mid-July. Like dendrite said, we've had some hot days...and of those few they were quite hot. It's still relatively early for such prolonged periods. Even what's happening across the Missouri Valley east to the mid-Atlantic coast is a bit early...not totally uncommon but it's quite the prolonged stretch

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's almost July dude, if we don't get going on it now it's not a good outlook for HHH for any point this summer.  Heat begets heat

Beer? It's not even the solstice.

[dendrite]

It's like expecting peak winter cold on 12/14. Good luck with that.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's like expecting peak winter cold on 12/14. Good luck with that.

Seasons in seasons.

[Damage In Tolland]

The cold summer folks are going to left pants down and mouths agape cone late this month and thru JA into at least mid September with the HHH coming

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The cold summer folks are going to left pants down and mouths agape cone late this month and thru JA into at least mid September with the HHH coming

Maybe even left face down, ass up?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that it hasn't been hot, so far. Its like failing to acknowledge how lame last December was because we hadn't yet reached peak climo.

I mean ... not sure what the intent of that 'type' of statement, as it serves no qualification or distinction otherwise.

We have to look at these things circumstantially in and of themselves.   Example, whether it is 1995, or 2012 ...and the heat is being shunted by a NW barrier jet in July, or, it is happening now in June ... doesn't mean less value to the circumstance. 

all of these - and I am sure there are countless other examples... - seem to suggest there may in fact be a geo-physical limitation in getting that miasmatic type continental heat to get here - save for comparatively shorter/transient stays. 

I don't give it shit if it's May or September... it may be that when these huge synergistic heat domes balloon, we get curvature of the earth porked.  It's worth the question -

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love the barrage of butt-hurt defense mechanisms when people state the obvious, which is that it hasn't been above normal thus far....usually centered around deflecting towards the peak climo idea, which is irrelevant when speaking of anomalies....at least I am.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I get that we haven't reached peak climo, but again.....May 1 through current has not been warm in the mean throughout the NE.

Hasn’t it been above normal?

[weatherwiz]

We've been above-average since mid-May...obviously driven moreso by warm mins, but even high's have been above-average. While we certainly have had some cool days this just goes to show that when we've had these cool days they really aren't far off from climo, but when we have the warmer days we're a good several-degrees or so above climo.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Hasn’t it been above normal?

Due to overnight mins, yes. I don't care about that...its the day time highs that I am concerned with...just like winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, it hasn't been 2009 or anything....just not many hot maxes.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the barrage of butt-hurt defense mechanisms when people state the obvious, which is that it hasn't been above normal thus far....usually centered around deflecting towards the peak climo idea, which is irrelevant when speaking of anomalies....at least I am.

..Haha

Yeah.. it's endemic to this social media/on-line engagement really.  It doesn't matter what it is?   [seems so] that it doesn't matter what the facet is, if it offers a new observation of any kind, ... perhaps one that conflicts with a narrative that hasn't even yet been spoken ... there seems to be a kind 'nuh uh' thing.  haha 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

..Haha

Yeah.. it's endemic to this social media/on-line engagement really.  It doesn't matter what it is?   [seems so] that it doesn't matter what the facet is, if it offers a new observation of any kind, ... perhaps one that conflicts with a narrative that hasn't even yet been spoken ... there seems to be a kind 'nuh uh' thing.  haha 

 

Its just as prevalent in winter, too....for every complainer, there is a Calvary of defense mechanisms waiting at the frontline to wage war with reality.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, Saguaro said:

There was something getting started in the Bridgton area yesterday afternoon. I was outside and heard a lot of thunder but only saw fair weather cumulus everywhere. Not sure if that was what eventually developed into something that went through your area.

TS coverage was spotty, making our experience an anomaly - we usually miss storms like that while places within a few miles get pounded.  Our storms arrived from WNW, so a different cell than what was heard in Bridgton.
The 2-storm total was 1.14" and Solon, 25 miles to the NE, had 2.12" (and few details offered ) for the only other cocorahs report over 1".  Farmington cocorahs, about 3 miles NW from the co-op site, reported 0.63" and Temple, one town farther west, only 0.13".  My crosstown neighbor, 3 miles ENE from our place, hasn't yet reported.  Unlike the Solon observer, I entered all the details, perhaps too many, in my report.

[dendrite]

I've already had a 92F and I've only been above 93F once since moving here. Max temps have been warm too.

[weatherwiz]

The best way to really put it is we haven't seen anything totally out of the ordinary or anything anomalous. We've had some hot days and we've had some cool days. But we have not entered a constant or consistent pattern which we really shouldn't be anyways given we're in the mid-latitudes. The pattern should really only be more consistent during the dead of summer (July/August) and dead of winter (January/February). Sometimes I think it would be better to view anomalies in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just an "average". 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I've already had a 92F and I've only been above 93F once since moving here. Max temps have been warm too.

I don't think that proves anything other than you had one exceptionally hot day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The best way to really put it is we haven't seen anything totally out of the ordinary or anything anomalous. We've had some hot days and we've had some cool days. But we have not entered a constant or consistent pattern which we really shouldn't be anyways given we're in the mid-latitudes. The pattern should really only be more consistent during the dead of summer (July/August) and dead of winter (January/February). Sometimes I think it would be better to view anomalies in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just an "average". 

Agree....I feel like there have been a couple of very hot days that were negated by the couple of days near 50 with fog.