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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a few BN .but nothing like the cold wet weekend some folks had. Assuming it doesn’t continue to moderate as we close in. ( which is likely) 

I haven’t seen one person say wet weekend… MOS has upper 60s (ORH) to mid-70s (BDL warmest at 75F) both days down there, and those are slanted towards climo.  That sounds reasonable.

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28 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I haven’t seen one person say wet weekend… MOS has upper 60s (ORH) to mid-70s (BDL warmest at 75F) both days down there, and those are slanted towards climo.  That sounds reasonable.

If you scroll back (to yesterday) there was a person telling us there’d be widespread instability showers in afternoons with falling temps 

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the NW flow looks to keep SNE pretty nice... 60s and 70s.

Total disaster up here though, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday at 18z.

If it's mid-40s at 18z Sunday afternoon that's absolutely miserable.  I think it'll modify a bit though for sure.

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Nice beach day at Pit2.  

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14 hours ago, tamarack said:

Act 2 was even better, maybe the best TS since we lived in Fort Kent.  Lots of close CG, oddly most a few minutes before the first drop.  Distance, by flash/bang interval in seconds: 3, 3, 1+ (very tiny +), 2, also a 4 during the first burst of RA.  That first 5 minutes ended with maybe 1/2 minute of lgt/mod RA then the really good stuff - windblown RA++ with visibility 100 yards or less, gusts into the 40s (must be some trees own in the area) and scattered hail, mostly pea but some dimes - one flattened chunk blown across the porch was 1/2" by 3/4".  Total precip from 3:45 to 4:10 was 0.91" and almost all, certainly 0.8"+, fell 3:54-4:04.  That 2nd burst had to have been 5"+/hr.  It came on NE wind while the 1st burst (G30+) came on SW wind.

There was something getting started in the Bridgton area yesterday afternoon. I was outside and heard a lot of thunder but only saw fair weather cumulus everywhere. Not sure if that was what eventually developed into something that went through your area.

 

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... looks like we're going to nail the early call for big heat in the Corn Belt/Lakes, surmised last week.   As Adv/Exc headlines cover a considerably large aspect of the contiguous U.S. ( actually..) including those area, perhaps adds some. 

The trek east doesn't appear ( to me..) as though it is going to happen ( at this point..), however, barring some changes - those could easily occur so not entirely sold ... but leaning away.   Fine, one shouldn't actually want 101/71 conditions out side our front doors. 

What needs to change?  It's all centered around the anomalous diving trough.   It is noted that the Euro seems to teeter with backing off on that feature's depth and residency - we'll see where that goes.  But yesterday I thought there was a chance that trough was partially faux.  However, since, the +NAO has begun to conveniently dip in the outlook, after the fact, for 3 days, below 0 SD ... just long enough to perhaps justify that close vortex being there ... cold loading SE Canada/NE regions with October.  The thing is, the -NAO blip in there appears to be the depth of the anomaly itself, pulling the EOF's down; there isn't any substantive high hgts/blocking, over-arcing latitudes, to numerically drive that nadir, otherwise.  It still could be fake...

I just don't like the fact that every guidance and derivative thereof that exists, has it.. LOL.  So yeah... ah hell.  It is what it is if it is

The short is, if the vortex does normalize over the next couple of days of runs, it will expose at least the upper M/A to that mid west miasma, and bring it closer to here.   Also, keep in mind...it's not all or nothing either.  The trough could verify at half it's magnitude, and only stick around for day .. day and half and/or just evolve into a standard BD scenario. In this less more climate friendly scenario we get hot later on.

Yea I think at this point we can stick a fork in the chances for NE. It's just not looking promising. GFS has reverted back to that buzzsaw vortex look. That once impressive heat signal around the 17th looks to verify as a transient overnight warm sector at best. Not seeing much in the long range after that.

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