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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If those frigid GFS temps for Sunday verify and are followed that night by clear and calm, we might be flirting with frost mere hours before the solstice.  :o

And then June'll come in with the 3rd or 2nd all-time hottest June in planetary history no doubt...

It's become a leit motif where we're seemingly picked by the global system for cold landfill while the rest of the world parties in warm opulence -ha .. tru tho

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the NW flow looks to keep SNE pretty nice... 60s and 70s.

Total disaster up here though, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday at 18z.

If it's mid-40s at 18z Sunday afternoon that's absolutely miserable.  I think it'll modify a bit though for sure.

gfs_T2m_neus_26.thumb.png.732c3e31ef9217da736d47437aa36407.png

Would be a brilliant day for my son's outdoor graduation :axe:

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Act 2 was even better, maybe the best TS since we lived in Fort Kent.  Lots of close CG, oddly most a few minutes before the first drop.  Distance, by flash/bang interval in seconds: 3, 3, 1+ (very tiny +), 2, also a 4 during the first burst of RA.  That first 5 minutes ended with maybe 1/2 minute of lgt/mod RA then the really good stuff - windblown RA++ with visibility 100 yards or less, gusts into the 40s (must be some trees own in the area) and scattered hail, mostly pea but some dimes - one flattened chunk blown across the porch was 1/2" by 3/4".  Total precip from 3:45 to 4:10 was 0.91" and almost all, certainly 0.8"+, fell 3:54-4:04.  That 2nd burst had to have been 5"+/hr.  It came on NE wind while the 1st burst (G30+) came on SW wind.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it’ll end up 75-80 for 2 days. But the gloom and doom talk of no summer and cold wet Fathers Day weekend was always silly . Models always back off cool and trend warmer .. any season 

I’m seeing mid 60s and very low dews for the weekend, which is just fine though.

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24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Act 2 was even better, maybe the best TS since we lived in Fort Kent.  Lots of close CG, oddly most a few minutes before the first drop.  Distance, by flash/bang interval in seconds: 3, 3, 1+ (very tiny +), 2, also a 4 during the first burst of RA.  That first 5 minutes ended with maybe 1/2 minute of lgt/mod RA then the really good stuff - windblown RA++ with visibility 100 yards or less, gusts into the 40s (must be some trees own in the area) and scattered hail, mostly pea but some dimes - one flattened chunk blown across the porch was 1/2" by 3/4".  Total precip from 3:45 to 4:10 was 0.91" and almost all, certainly 0.8"+, fell 3:54-4:04.  That 2nd burst had to have been 5"+/hr.  It came on NE wind while the 1st burst (G30+) came on SW wind.

Ha I didn’t even know there would be storms up there today. That’s pretty good.

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Well... looks like we're going to nail the early call for big heat in the Corn Belt/Lakes, surmised last week.   As Adv/Exc headlines cover a considerably large aspect of the contiguous U.S. ( actually..) including those area, perhaps adds some. 

The trek east doesn't appear ( to me..) as though it is going to happen ( at this point..), however, barring some changes - those could easily occur so not entirely sold ... but leaning away.   Fine, one shouldn't actually want 101/71 conditions out side our front doors. 

What needs to change?  It's all centered around the anomalous diving trough.   It is noted that the Euro seems to teeter with backing off on that feature's depth and residency - we'll see where that goes.  But yesterday I thought there was a chance that trough was partially faux.  However, since, the +NAO has begun to conveniently dip in the outlook, after the fact, for 3 days, below 0 SD ... just long enough to perhaps justify that close vortex being there ... cold loading SE Canada/NE regions with October.  The thing is, the -NAO blip in there appears to be the depth of the anomaly itself, pulling the EOF's down; there isn't any substantive high hgts/blocking, over-arcing latitudes, to numerically drive that nadir, otherwise.  It still could be fake...

I just don't like the fact that every guidance and derivative thereof that exists, has it.. LOL.  So yeah... ah hell.  It is what it is if it is

The short is, if the vortex does normalize over the next couple of days of runs, it will expose at least the upper M/A to that mid west miasma, and bring it closer to here.   Also, keep in mind...it's not all or nothing either.  The trough could verify at half it's magnitude, and only stick around for day .. day and half and/or just evolve into a standard BD scenario. In this less more climate friendly scenario we get hot later on.

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