weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 4 hours ago, kdxken said: Wiz getting tingly: Upper ridge becomes suppressed by open trough moving through Great Lakes, which is a pattern that can bring severe weather to our area, and we do note longer range guidance from CIPS and CSU shows some low probabilities Thu/Fri. For now, it`s something to keep in mind and we`ll need to see how things evolve over next few days with regard to timing and instability/shear parameters. We can only hope. I've been trying really hard not to get too excited for anything 5+ (sometimes even 3+) days the past few years (including winter). But it's nice to see this potential still on the table from a few days ago. Going to be lots to iron out with how things evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 As just an on-going monitoring effort for chances at tall temperatures ... maybe the week of the Solstice (18th - ~ 22nd). The operational GFS has moved considerably in favor of the erstwhile PNA/NAO modes ... which for a number of previous day's worth of runs, it was failing to do so. The ens - derived PNA has been moving into the negative index mode toward/by the end of this next week for quite some. Meanwhile the NAO is/was positive-neutral out in time. So it was a bit of a disconnect between the operational and these other techniques. We really should have seen more positive non-hydrostatic heights over the OV given that scaffolding. Yet, the operational was persisting in packing the heights and heat back W, drilling these deep climatology oblivious grapple troughs through the lower Maritime. The 'hint' that it was all bullshit was because these large scale features were acting like standing waves - I surmised it was the heat itself - in part - causing that to happen. The big SW heat expulsions get trapped in the planetary wave signal, and together that constructive interference in turn then negatively interferes with the -PNAP/+NAO hemisphere. Fascinating if your an excruciating nerd like me... Anyway, that deep maritime "fixture" may just be a faux model artifact. Seeing the last several cycles of the operational GFS "correct", now actually resembling something that fits said telecon .. is thus more appealing. Looking beyond week 1, the Euro has no interest in this line of reasoning. It, and its typically non-dispersive ens means, continue to argue for a November trough to set up down the longitude/eastern Canada/ Maritime, and then holding it there until oblivion. I still find that to be less likely. I'm either going to be proven right or wrong in all this... But if right, ... the non-hydrostatic ballooning of heights over ORD-BOS in these recent run cycles would certainly support 90+ readings over that span of continent. And given to the -PNA --> -PNAP pulsations through week 2, we run risk of timing Sonoran/SW heat releases getting injected into that synopsis. I think it is worth it to monitor this heat-related Meteorology, because recent decade(s) have shown world-wide, that heat is a real natural disaster potential. And despite the bland normalcy and spoils of splendor we lavish in over the while, lending to a kind of smug detachment from that lurking threat, ... it's a threat that's still there. We here are either "over-due" for our turn in that boat, or, we are learning that this is one part of the World that is somehow circumstantially never going to see a synergistic heat event - we'll see which is which eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather Always read (or at least skim) from top to bottom. Your writing is appealing for two reasons-- first for the insights and information concealed (at times) within, and secondly for its originality and entertainment value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather Good morning Tip. I am 40’s baby boomer and beg to differ with you. Many look forward to your analysis. It may be a battle royal of vowels and descriptive adjectives with reaction place holders (heh) but the depth and importance of the analysis remains unchanged. On occasion coming away from it with, admittedly, more than one reading, my comfort level, if anything, is significantly decreased. If you are clearing the room the occupants may be running not from you but from the import of what your saying. We that stay will try to digest what your explaining, regardless of the bromine need thereafter. Stay well as always…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 It's gonna be interesting to look up toward the western Dakota region to see if a thunderstorm complex really does take off this evening...The models either are onto something, ...or they are just responding to a lot of 'numerical instability' in the set up ... using f'ing butterflies ... Is it just me or is really perfect utopian weather conditions mouth breathing boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saguaro Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I tend to be effacing much of the time ... I'm gen-X; we specialize in throwing our selves under the bus in ironic self-doubt. But I have to say, my ability to arrest engagement in this forums thread and see the login counts plummet ... is a unique, and brag-able talent. lol - no one clears a room like one of my attempts at lucid discourse surrounding summer weather I've read your analysis for years, and having gone through many a lackluster warm season in ME before finally moving west, gained a lot of insight into the labradorian curse that plagues that part of NE. This year's June Sonoran heat event so far has come in a couple degrees below forecast highs, at least back in my part of AZ. 114 and 115 were initially expected, verifying at 112. Today's the last day of it in the Phoenix area for a while, though there might be another run later in the week. Past that point, there's some signs of the monsoon pattern starting up. I noticed that the GFS has started coming around as you hinted it might, there does appear to be some chances for summer warmth coming in around the 17th, albeit a one day deal instead of anything substantial. Past that point it offers some hope for some more regular chances for it, vs the shutout trough it depicted before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Euro beginning its cave to GFS/ GEFS for heater coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 We embrace any torch forthcoming. been a nice stretch since the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Hopefully we can manage at least some sub severe booms and bangs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro beginning its cave to GFS/ GEFS for heater coming Yeeeah it's still excessive with that diving behavior along/astride the EC, though. Maybe a little less than the 00z version. The other ens (GGEM/GEF) have that, but the azymouth is not nearly as due N-->S... such that they don't have momentum/curvature to cut off such an unrealistic looking feature. Imho, those latter versions are a better fit for a neutral-positive NAO, which should support progressive nature to the over our region. I think the Euro is getting caught up in it, because one ... it likes to curve the flow as a bias in the D5-8 range ( the trough in question right smack dab in the temporal window for that). But two ... I wonder if the intense heat in the plains/western OV that's dumped into that ridge, are then enabling the Euro... Between those two factors, it ends up powerless to stop itself from such odd look. Hopefully I'm totally wrong LOL after all that logic - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 I mean the following is partial to my point... WPC's ext. disco "Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 252 PM EDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 15 2022 - 12Z Sun Jun 19 2022 ...Dangerous/Record Heat over the east-central/southeastern U.S. through at least Wednesday... ...Heat likely to become established over the northern-central Plains Friday-Sunday..." They're seeing it ... I guarantee you, that red font is 'hedging' - they know it's gonna cook. How much so? Lay the ground work for future advisories. Post D5'ish that could be a bad week for the Corn Belt, Lakes and western OV. That's a SW heat release dumped into a planetary ridge leading in... The two timed together causes these headlines above. Furthering my point, the ridge is being goosed in the guidance because of the meshing/constructive interference... reiterating, then adding the Euro bias at D7 leads to me think it's wrong. I'm thinking that heat may end up a problem to NYC eventually. They are going with a cooler cut in flow type, but they admit they are uncertain whether that will work out too well, "...Uncertainty with the upper flow pattern over the Northeast at that time lowers confidence in the forecast though" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Is the NAM's selling a landphoon here .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeeeah it's still excessive with that diving behavior along/astride the EC, though. Maybe a little less than the 00z version. The other ens (GGEM/GEF) have that, but the azymouth is not nearly as due N-->S... such that they don't have momentum/curvature to cut off such an unrealistic looking feature. Imho, those latter versions are a better fit for a neutral-positive NAO, which should support progressive nature to the over our region. I think the Euro is getting caught up in it, because one ... it likes to curve the flow as a bias in the D5-8 range ( the trough in question right smack dab in the temporal window for that). But two ... I wonder if the intense heat in the plains/western OV that's dumped into that ridge, are then enabling the Euro... Between those two factors, it ends up powerless to stop itself from such odd look. Hopefully I'm totally wrong LOL after all that logic - You knew when you started seeing all the heat building to our SW that it was coming to stay sooner rather than later. Euro always overdoes troughs, ULL’s,,, everything . Furnace incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You knew when you started seeing all the heat building to our SW that it was coming to stay sooner rather than later. Euro always overdoes troughs, ULL’s,,, everything . Furnace incoming Looks more likely for the South through Mid-Atlantic. Looks like big heat is transient here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Reggie pretty aggressive with the storms overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Looks more likely for the South through Mid-Atlantic. Looks like big heat is transient here. As usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Goofus flirting with frost for NNE this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Reggie pretty aggressive with the storms overnight Meanwhile radar looks atrocious. Like many towns stay dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You knew when you started seeing all the heat building to our SW that it was coming to stay sooner rather than later. Euro always overdoes troughs, ULL’s,,, everything . Furnace incoming I don’t see anything folded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Reggie pretty aggressive with the storms overnight Lots of Stein for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t see anything folded. Euro cold ULL fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Yeah returning this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of Stein for many. We pour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro cold ULL fold Looks like a cool weekend on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We pour Meh a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 Low of 45F, high of 78F and now a light rain that probably only brings a tenth of an inch or so... but enough to take care of the garden. Fantastic weekend. June has been real nice so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh a few hundredths. Close to a tenth here… everything soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 On 6/11/2022 at 6:25 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Little did I know.. it was connected to the New England accordion museum . Literally same building. Two old guys were out on the porch squeezing the hell out of the squeezeboxes. I wondered aloud if Corey @TheSnowmanhad ever been here . They were even having a sale . Surprisingly .. no one was inside shopping You can’t make this stuff up It’s only a few towns away from me but I didn’t even know it was there. I have a sister who is an accordion enthusiast (and player). I wonder whether she even knows about that place. Thanks for posting about it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Close to a tenth here… everything soaked He laughs at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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