weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 I don’t think we can fully enjoy summer until we get into constant 85-90+ with dews > 70 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 59 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I have to look back but it was like June 12th or so like 5-9 years ago I have video of legit -SN above 3,000ft. It’s on FB somewhere. Had to shut down the Toll Road. After Tambora ...I'm sure it happened pretty frequently that summer --heh. I mean, not for not, it can happen. That said, I feel pretty strongly that a goodly amount of present modeled synoptic scaffolding for cold delivery (cinema spanning the last 5 days so far ) is a "faux" response to the huge heat anomaly getting ready to go nuclear on the Corn Belt/ Chicago region of the atmospheric/continental volume. ...wow. Firstly, I'm becoming increasingly more suspicious that the models are either deliberately designed to do so, or...this is just a weird scenario where they are normalizing what is potentially coming in that region (D5 to 9). It's probably the latter? I've noticed with big numbers heat ...the models get hung up with convective this, or butterfly farts that, seemingly even inventing any means necessary to dim the range that can be achieved. Interesting... Heat's unstable in modeling. It's fragile? An errant Cirrus plume means 94 or 101 for example. But in other large synoptic aspects, it hard to hit heat from D9 and nail it... Usually, it's off and on - but coherent - and then it has to be short term before they shed the shit antics all at once and then it's a 104. I could see that happening out there, but we'll see. But it bears relevancy to us up through the Maritime... Because ( I opined this the other day) the intensity of the SW/Sonoran release happenstance timed so perfectly into a -PNP --> +PNAP to -PNAP sea saw, is causing a huge constructive feedback in the models - whether that happens in reality is a bit of an experiment... But, in the modeling cinema, we'd be establishing a ridge over Missouri and probably arming it to PA...mid Atl... , anyway, but, with the huge heat dump into it is giving it a huge boost, and the models then buckle the mass fields down stream to make room for it - 'what goes up, must come down'. So the flow end up veering more N, grabbing these cold plumes NE of JB up there over the archipelago for Canada and drilling them to Cape Cod and the lower Martime. It's the non-linear wave function, incarnate. I don't know if that is right... But, I keep seeing about every 4th run cycle of the Euro or GFS or GGEM...they flatten the exit flow off the NE continent, and we end up with more heat out west spilling SE into the region ...with less total blunt/ cold intrusions. 12z GFS nicely elucidates ...if one uses Trop. Tidbits nice Prev. function and clicks back, you can see how this run is correcting pretty dramatically toward less ( perhaps more sanely) cold. At least through D8..9. I believe that non-sense over western NF at D10 is part of this bias wrap-sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Anyone ever see a brown recluse in the region? Something very similar? Could have sworn I saw one the other night on my back door. Almost shit my pants. No web. Just hanging out on the lower portion of the door. Should have snapped a pic. I usually leave spiders that are outdoors as a means to kill all the other pests. But this one had me thinking it’s an exception. Warm basements due to oil furnaces can make for microclimates… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Is this part of the new LIV tour? Yea top prize a Snickers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Anyone ever see a brown recluse in the region? Something very similar? Could have sworn I saw one the other night on my back door. Almost shit my pants. No web. Just hanging out on the lower portion of the door. Should have snapped a pic. I usually leave spiders that are outdoors as a means to kill all the other pests. But this one had me thinking it’s an exception. Warm basements due to oil furnaces can make for microclimates… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 We’re not even close to its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Yeah it's almost impossible to find a brown recluse up here, unless it were a stowaway and got transplanted. That would be super rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: After Tambora ...I'm sure it happened pretty frequently that summer --heh. I mean, not for not, it can happen. That said, I feel pretty strongly that a goodly amount of present modeled synoptic scaffolding for cold delivery (cinema spanning the last 5 days so far ) is a "faux" response to the huge heat anomaly getting ready to go nuclear on the Corn Belt/ Chicago region of the atmospheric/continental volume. ...wow. Firstly, I'm becoming increasingly more suspicious that the models are either deliberately designed to do so, or...this is just a weird scenario where they are normalizing what is potentially coming in that region (D5 to 9). It's probably the latter? I've noticed with big numbers heat ...the models get hung up with convective this, or butterfly farts that, seemingly even inventing any means necessary to dim the range that can be achieved. Interesting... Heat's unstable in modeling. It's fragile? An errant Cirrus plume means 94 or 101 for example. But in other large synoptic aspects, it hard to hit heat from D9 and nail it... Usually, it's off and on - but coherent - and then it has to be short term before they shed the shit antics all at once and then it's a 104. I could see that happening out there, but we'll see. But it bears relevancy to us up through the Maritime... Because ( I opined this the other day) the intensity of the SW/Sonoran release happenstance timed so perfectly into a -PNP --> +PNAP to -PNAP sea saw, is causing a huge constructive feedback in the models - whether that happens in reality is a bit of an experiment... But, in the modeling cinema, we'd be establishing a ridge over Missouri and probably arming it to PA...mid Atl... , anyway, but, with the huge heat dump into it is giving it a huge boost, and the models then buckle the mass fields down stream to make room for it - 'what goes up, must come down'. So the flow end up veering more N, grabbing these cold plumes NE of JB up there over the archipelago for Canada and drilling them to Cape Cod and the lower Martime. It's the non-linear wave function, incarnate. I don't know if that is right... But, I keep seeing about every 4th run cycle of the Euro or GFS or GGEM...they flatten the exit flow off the NE continent, and we end up with more heat out west spilling SE into the region ...with less total blunt/ cold intrusions. 12z GFS nicely elucidates ...if one uses Trop. Tidbits nice Prev. function and clicks back, you can see how this run is correcting pretty dramatically toward less ( perhaps more sanely) cold. At least through D8..9. I believe that non-sense over western NF at D10 is part of this bias wrap-sheet. Hey Tip, did you notice the ~30C 850 mb temps making a run for the IA/ IL border on Monday? I can hardly recall that happening, because it has hardly happened, and never in the middle of June. Thing is, that layer is sooo hot/dry that it seems like mixing is largely contained underneath that height on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Anyone ever see a brown recluse in the region? Something very similar? Could have sworn I saw one the other night on my back door. Almost shit my pants. No web. Just hanging out on the lower portion of the door. Should have snapped a pic. I usually leave spiders that are outdoors as a means to kill all the other pests. But this one had me thinking it’s an exception. Warm basements due to oil furnaces can make for microclimates… My uncle used to see them when he lived at a stable when taking care of horses. This is a huge part of climate change that nobody talks about…big massive spiders starting to populate the north b/c the climate is becoming conducive for them. Pretty soon wolf spiders will dominate and we’ll be seeing brown recluses everywhere along with black widows and the Australian massive spider guy. This really isn’t a good situation 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 I for one welcome our new spider overlords 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 DC derecho Monday night. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: DC derecho Monday night. Congrats. Every time it goes from idyllic partly sunny, puffy Cu day to raining I think of you . The "it rains every afternoon" comments... I'm driving off the mountain down into town and it just starts pouring. I'm like WTF, why is it raining. Sure enough, blows up over Mansfield and then the WNW flow pushes it east down RT 108 to town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Hey Tip, did you notice the ~30C 850 mb temps making a run for the IA/ IL border on Monday? I can hardly recall that happening, because it has hardly happened, and never in the middle of June. Thing is, that layer is sooo hot/dry that it seems like mixing is largely contained underneath that height on the models. yea ...I did. wasn't gonna get into details but that's part and parcel of the total manifold of that anomaly. Thing is, the ridge amplitude later in the week looks even more ominous - I think the models are setting up a counter-balancing mass field nodal negative ( heh...lotta big words ..) over NF because of the heartland forcing. -PNAP ridge with a ginormous heat plume embedded - the two kind of syntergistically enhance one another. Down stream, the flow compensates with a deep hole. I just don't know if all that is right in its entirety... I think it can be to some extent - feedbacks are a part of any dynamic system in nature. But how much or how little; the models may be too amplified with that trough - they typically are amplified with just about everything that happens in the D6 to 10 time range, anyway - so it's intuitive based on that performance bias. You guys out in Indiana are doomed -... You may say all-time flirtations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: My uncle used to see them when he lived at a stable when taking care of horses. This is a huge part of climate change that nobody talks about…big massive spiders starting to populate the north b/c the climate is becoming conducive for them. Pretty soon wolf spiders will dominate and we’ll be seeing brown recluses everywhere along with black widows and the Australian massive spider guy. This really isn’t a good situation Ah really? I've been reading that everywhere. That, and countless other species in mass diasporas due new habitats opening up to them, and/or just the collapse of nativity leading to escape/migration to survive ...many of which have been showing up here. Ticks with deadly pathogens transporting into regions where the local fauna have very little or no native immuno-respose. Nile virus toting tiger mosquitoes. Black widows now in Massachusett, Pa and Ohio...Michigan. Just to name a short few. Wolf spiders have been around for decades. I think you have a borderline fear/anxiety disorder with spiders. LOL... subject comes up, you're the first in line with doom's day scenarios. And if one shows up in your closet, we get constant siege comparisons to something out of Lord Of The Rings. Ever see "Arachnophobia" ? You should watch that movie, then, sleep naked out in a barn in a sleeping bag you never did a sleep check before you climbed into - on a dare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Every time it goes from idyllic partly sunny, puffy Cu day to raining I think of you . The "it rains every afternoon" comments... I'm driving off the mountain down into town and it just starts pouring. I'm like WTF, why is it raining. Sure enough, blows up over Mansfield and then the WNW flow pushes it east down RT 108 to town. Same here. We mountain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 What a great afternoon to chill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 Pretty perfect June day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty perfect June day today. 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What a great afternoon to chill. 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty perfect June day today. Pool 73 . Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Same here. We mountain Glad we here not there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pool 73 . Good times. Ho hum 76/49. Couldn't script it any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Glad we here not there. Sucks to be him. 5:40pm] An isolated shower has developed in Tolland County, CT this evening. While the majority of the area will remain dry, it's not out of the question an isolated shower can develop #CTwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Glad we here not there. Popped right over the mountain here. .06 with half of it in full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Was at Great Falls Brewery today in Canaan in NW hills. I found the gypsies. Whole hill sides completely devoured in Canaan and Norfolk. I mean hundreds of acres . As I recall they were very dry last spring .. and probably never had the fungus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Popped right over the mountain here. .06 with half of it in full sun That’s when you start looking for the rainbow as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 11, 2022 Author Share Posted June 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was at Great Falls Brewery today in Canaan in NW hills. I found the gypsies. Whole hill sides completely devoured in Canaan and Norfolk. I mean hundreds of acres . As I recall they were very dry last spring .. and probably never had the fungus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 What a day. Pants tent evening now. I can do this airmass. Scooter waffling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pool 73 . Good times. 75F here. Beer and pool floatie for a couple hours was just what the doctor ordered. Went in the hot tub after for good measure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: Little did I know.. it was connected to the New England accordion museum . Literally same building. Two old guys were out on the porch squeezing the hell out of the squeezeboxes. I wondered aloud if Corey @TheSnowmanhad ever been here . They were even having a sale . Surprisingly .. no one was inside shopping You can’t make this stuff up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s when you start looking for the rainbow as it moves east. There’s your bow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 Stein wild 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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