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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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I think we're getting a large scale feed-back from the heat in the Midwest...and it's causing the flow to torque around it. 

Over the next 4 or so days...a weak -PNA --> PNAP sea saw to more jet/trough moving into the W in about 4 or 5 days...  That induces a huge SW heat release, trapping inside the ridge downstream of that forcing - so it's a superposition of wave phenomenon and going bonkers.

Heat anomalies have thermal wind components that move into a clockwise fashion per Coriolis/wind response to the vector forcing - that creates a positive feedback into the ridge, over-amplifying its power.  It seems unnatural to do what they are doing over eastern Canada, drilling a due S or even SSW from west of Baffin Island  all the way down to VA.   And notice... that precedes the creation of a -NAO block NW of Iceland... that is a non-linear wave response where the "faux" ridge in the heartland, triggers the "faux" coupled trough over eastern Canada --> forcing the block to erupt... 

Should be noted, the recent NAO numerical guidance have been positive to neutral - i.e., unsupportive.   I think the ridge is getting a huge feed-back - unsure if that's really going to work out that way or if it is just a model artifact?  But the models seems to be lost in it.

 

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GFS has a fairly good looking severe threat next Friday!!!!!

WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE A WEEK OUT??? It probably will become more poopy as we move through the week....ughhhh this is a pathetic summer for convection...absolute crap. Can't get anything solid....nothing good...not even any decent setups. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS has a fairly good looking severe threat next Friday!!!!!

WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE A WEEK OUT??? It probably will become more poopy as we move through the week....ughhhh this is a pathetic summer for convection...absolute crap. Can't get anything solid....nothing good...not even any decent setups. 

This is akin to a winter weenie rant in RDU.

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Really D10-D15 that's chilly/wet on the GFS. 

Days 10-15? I mean how many times do people get creamy in jeans in winter over a 10-14 day prog of 480 thicknesses.. only to have them modify and mute into near normal or normal . The same applies here. The whole heat brigade could easily flood east . All it takes is one EPS run and we’ll know it’s coming 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Haven’t worn long sleeves since mid Mayorch 

Yeah I've had some days in there that are shorts and hoodie days.

05/22 91.5  59.3 0.11   21  0.0  0
05/23 66.6  48.3 0.00   21  0.0  0
05/24 67.2  41.7 0.00   11  0.0  0
05/25 73.4  43.0 0.00   12  0.0  0
05/26 73.7  52.5 0.00   21  0.0  0
05/27 80.9  57.3 0.00   18  0.0  0
05/28 75.1  53.4 0.18   20  0.0  0
05/29 76.3  49.2 0.00   10  0.0  0
05/30 84.1  50.6 0.00   13  0.0  0
05/31 78.7  54.6 0.00   12  0.0  0

06/01 55.2  50.5 0.45    7  0.0  0
06/02 66.7  50.6 0.08    9  0.0  0
06/03 59.3  54.1 0.22    5  0.0  0
06/04 74.1  52.4 0.00   15  0.0  0
06/05 71.4  47.8 0.00   18  0.0  0
06/06 77.7  44.9 0.00   10  0.0  0
06/07 78.6  53.4 0.06   22  0.0  0
06/08 74.8  55.7 0.29   14  0.0  0
06/09 66.5  52.8 0.98   15  0.0  0
06/10 71.5  51.4 0.00   15  0.0  0

 

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