June pattern and forecast discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like what I see, so far....getting 2000, 2009 kind of vibes this warm season. Least mother nature can do for me after these past several butt-plug winters.

Two weeks from today days begin drifting back to the shorted end of the spectrum, and the sun begins to fade...tic, tock...each day in this pattern burns more of solar max.

I’m loving these low dew warm days with cool nights that have dominated the past several weeks though. Keep that coming. I’ll take a hot stretch in July to do some beach stuff with the fam but other than that, I have no use for SA infested cloudy weekday mornings with torrential downpours in the evening. 
 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m loving these low dew warm days with cool nights that have dominated the past several weeks though. Keep that coming. I’ll take a hot stretch in July to do some beach stuff with the fam but other than that, I have no use for SA infested cloudy weekday mornings with torrential downpours in the evening. 
 

Serious question, not a troll , this has to be one of the nicest springs we've had in a long long time?

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Serious question, not a troll , this has to be one of the nicest springs we've had in a long long time?

It's fine. We'll take low to mid 70's with a few scorchers mixed in. 

What we don't want is unsettled and 60's all summer, like 2009. Or on the opposite end of the spectrum like 2012

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Serious question, not a troll , this has to be one of the nicest springs we've had in a long long time?

I agree but I enjoy this time of year most seasons… we tend to be further away from the Atlantic mank and get over the top warmth.

Running +1 to +5 in the spring to early summer is a fine climo to live in around these parts.  A lot of highs in the 70s when normals were 60s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sept heat doesn’t have the same bite though and agree, the evenings from mid August onward already have that early fall vibe going. Growing up, I always viewed summeh starting MWD and ending LBW. We’re already pushing into mid June without a sustained summer look so we’ll get a hot stretch in July and early Aug before we begin the step down. 

Yea, September heat is like March cold.....yea, you can get it, but its intensity and residence time is reduced by the changing sun angle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m loving these low dew warm days with cool nights that have dominated the past several weeks though. Keep that coming. I’ll take a hot stretch in July to do some beach stuff with the fam but other than that, I have no use for SA infested cloudy weekday mornings with torrential downpours in the evening. 
 

Yea, this has been the perfect warm season, so far...if they were all like this, then I wouldn't mind it as much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, September heat is like March cold.....yea, you can get it, but its intensity and residence time is reduced by the changing sun angle.

First half of September can have some nasty humidity iirc from past years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

First half of September can have some nasty humidity iirc from past years.

Yea, I said heat....humidity, sure....seasonal lag. Just like March can have a ton of snow, but intense and persistent cold is harder to come by.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

First half of September can have some nasty humidity iirc from past years.

Yeah September has felt much more uncomfortable than May/June but the seasonal lag that 40/70 mentioned makes a lot of sense.  I feel like the dews linger into October too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah September has felt much more uncomfortable than May/June but the seasonal lag that 40/70 mentioned makes a lot of sense.  I feel like the dews linger into October too.

March is a snowier month than December, on average.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, September heat is like March cold.....yea, you can get it, but its intensity and residence time is reduced by the changing sun angle.

Yeah but once the sun goes down March cold can feel just as brutal as January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but once the sun goes down March cold can feel just as brutal as January.

Still not as intense because there is a higher starting point owed to increased solar irradiance, but yea.....you lose the "warm bum in car" insolation.

[Typhoon Tip]

Some of these meso runs ( albeit outside their better performance windows) look suspect for EOFies on Thursday. 

Seeing a precarious warm frontal arm NW of NYC-BOS axis over the interior, with a potent mid level jet relay moving along it during the morning and early afternoon... It's not a slam dunk look for that, no.  But having a low moving along that axis with mid level jet feeds portrays wet warm sector with low lcls intruded into the ORH/SE areas.

The NAM wants more of strata rain with embedded convective stripes ...those can be prolific rainers over short durations as a ball sequences through...but I'd remind that it was system(s) like this that brought unusual convection and even tor results over SE zones, Cape and the Islands over recent years.   Not sure this sort of climo/local studies event is SPC's thing so don't bother -

[Typhoon Tip]

Tomorrow's a sneaking humid day -

Looks like residual debris band if not ongoing elevated instability moving through in the overnight/predawn, then tends to allow sun punch through into a fresh moisture ... I dunno.    Machine (MEX) didn't look too impressive at 60F, but synoptics and experience together argues for a richer experience than that.  T1 on the NAM has +24C at Logan at 18Z-21Z (in full sun the 2-meter's about 27 in reality!) on a wind from 260 ( W by WSW..), with no advecting sourc of drying air.  Not sure why the machine has DP less than the overnight lows in/after .5" in QPF has fallen.  Seems a bit off.  we'll see..  and unless there's a high cirrus problem ...we're getting some pretty tall hard sun shining into a theta-e rich lower level. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like what I see, so far....getting 2000, 2009 kind of vibes this warm season. Least mother nature can do for me after these past several butt-plug winters.

Two weeks from today days begin drifting back to the shorted end of the spectrum, and the sun begins to fade...tic, tock...each day in this pattern burns more of solar max.

Remember as the days shorten, the heat worsens!

[weathafella]

Bunch of snowflakes here.  How dare the wx stray from San Diego!   Of course in winter dark and cold with discomfort exercising outdoors is ok…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Remember as the days shorten, the heat worsens!

That's fine, at least I know the end is in sight by that point.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is a soaker Thursday and Saturday into Sunday 

[powderfreak]

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Bunch of snowflakes here.  How dare the wx stray from San Diego!   Of course in winter dark and cold with discomfort exercising outdoors is ok…..

Brutal cold can suck it too, lol.  Hate the sub-zero days.

[weathafella]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Brutal cold can suck it too, lol.  Hate the sub-zero days.

You could be the only normal person here.....including me!

Today feels like summer but for the heat haters it’s not at all extreme.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You could be the only normal person here.....including me!

Today feels like summer but for the heat haters it’s not at all extreme.

I like the extremes in short bursts though.  The novelty of it.  But the older I get the less desire I have to be outside in uncomfortable weather.  Used to love the challenge of working on the mountain at -30F or 90F and humid…. like a challenge.  Now it’s like if it could stay between 20F and 80F annually we’re all set even not working outside anymore… aka boring deflated weenie.

[powderfreak]

Yeah today is well above normal.

An awesome 81/55 right now.

Normal max temp is 72F at MVL… so good +10 en route today.  Yesterday was +6 on the max temp.  

Today’s low-80s are about mid-summer normals.  So it’s summer out there.

[weatherwiz]

Yikes...if convection can develop Thursday PM in the Hudson Valley there is potential for some supercells. Pretty rich surge of llvl theta-e and quite a bit of low-level wind shear.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Serious question, not a troll , this has to be one of the nicest springs we've had in a long long time?

April here had a lot of cloudy days and had 18 days with rain, but in May I counted 15 sunny days, 3 more than any other of our 24 Mays here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You could be the only normal person here.....including me!

Today feels like summer but for the heat haters it’s not at all extreme.

This weather is fine, typical summer weather. I don’t care for upper 80s and low 90s if there is also humidity.

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Only 6 months away from our 6 week winter.  Rough times

I set my calendar to remind me that that it will be time to track the Grinch storm in just about 6 months from now. 

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, September heat is like March cold.....yea, you can get it, but its intensity and residence time is reduced by the changing sun angle.

I'll buy residence time but not intensity (at the extremes, anyway.)  Most recent day reaching 95 at the Farmington co-op was on Sept 9, 2002, and Sept 1999 featured several days with dews 70+.  Marc 6, 2007 had an afternoon high of -2 at my place (spoiled by a cheap evening max) with strong winds, and 3/11/17 was even windier with an afternoon max at zero (also spoiled by the pervious evening.)  On that latter blast, Jackman with its 7 AM obs time showed a high of -6.  Those 2 cold March days were the bitterest (aft high and WCI) of their respective winters.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Yikes...if convection can develop Thursday PM in the Hudson Valley there is potential for some supercells. Pretty rich surge of llvl theta-e and quite a bit of low-level wind shear.

Not to be confused with a supermax-prison-cell.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You could be the only normal person here.....including me!

Today feels like summer but for the heat haters it’s not at all extreme.

I have no use for the extreme cold, as its miserable....even involving storms.... it often leads to CJs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I'll buy residence time but not intensity (at the extremes, anyway.)  Most recent day reaching 95 at the Farmington co-op was on Sept 9, 2002, and Sept 1999 featured several days with dews 70+.  Marc 6, 2007 had an afternoon high of -2 at my place (spoiled by a cheap evening max) with strong winds, and 3/11/17 was even windier with an afternoon max at zero (also spoiled by the pervious evening.)  On that latter blast, Jackman with its 7 AM obs time showed a high of -6.  Those 2 cold March days were the bitterest (aft high and WCI) of their respective winters.

What I mean by extreme is all-time type record heat.

I think we all understand that intense cold and heat can still occur in March and September, respectively, but the ceiling (floor) is not as extreme as July (January).