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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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  On 6/20/2022 at 3:54 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. I hate that we wasted that EML a few weeks ago, but the heart of storm season is around the corner I guess. 

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Yeah we had that somewhat similar scenario a few weeks back but just didn't pan out. We'll see what happens moving forward. I think climatologically the period with greatest severe potential is like mid-June into mid-July so we're already into this period. It's one thing to get a favorable pattern, but its a whole other ordeal to get perfect timing of everything (we know this to be very true in winter too lol). 

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  On 6/20/2022 at 4:22 PM, weatherwiz said:

Yeah we had that somewhat similar scenario a few weeks back but just didn't pan out. We'll see what happens moving forward. I think climatologically the period with greatest severe potential is like mid-June into mid-July so we're already into this period. It's one thing to get a favorable pattern, but its a whole other ordeal to get perfect timing of everything (we know this to be very true in winter too lol). 

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I always thought the peak was squarely in July. I’m ready for tropical. 

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  On 6/20/2022 at 6:29 PM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like weekend gets toasty.

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Kinda how the goofus has looked. Delayed but not denied warmup, but nothing too hot. Then a cool down toward the 4th. We'll see if the euro digs that trough in enough to cool us down or if it's just a dew down.

 

check that...29th...not the 4th

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  On 6/20/2022 at 6:59 PM, weatherwiz said:

Does anyone know if there is a NBM verification similar to this anywhere?

image.thumb.png.15275132ae6771a1839918b46e33a938.png

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Not sure if you can access this (https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/wave1d/?col=2&hgt=1&location=KPWM&selectedgroup=Default&obs=true&fontsize=1&darkmode=auto&graph=fa-chart-bar&probfield=Tmax&proboperator=>%3D&probvalue=40&colorfriendly=false&whiskers=false&boxes=true&median=false&det=true&tz=local) but it plots obs on the forecast as time goes on.

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