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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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  On 6/15/2022 at 7:07 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Love that 8-10 look 12z Euro!  

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Like to see one of those heat signals get to even D6. 

I think one will .. the eventual/onset -PNA probably does exert to a threshold and the circulation mode across the continent snaps away from that weird meridional flow thing we're observing - but ...it's not clear this would be the breakthrough look.

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Just checking in.   I know most of you are hating the cold look but I will take this anytime over 95/70F.  Obviously if I had a boat and wanted to be swimming in a lake I would feel otherwise.  Give me a couple of heavy showers for the gardens and then open up the windows for 60F air for the weekend.  No complaints here...

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  On 6/15/2022 at 10:00 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

A cold snap about as deep as any heat we have had 

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Depends on the scaling, actually...

In terms of absolute value, no way - it could be -20 diurnal 'IF' the GFS' various fantasies play out, and there's no way we've been +20 yet. 

That said, it may be hard to get +20 in a June ... climate doesn't really permit that. Otherwise we'd be 95 to 100 far more frequently.  So based on climatolgy ... mm, I'd still say this cool snap is deeper negative than the positives we've had - however much so. Just off the top of the head...

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Why are you bunning me?  that's the model doing that - I didn't run the f'n thing in my basement. 

That's what Ray was talking about . If reality conflicts with one's personal narratives and motivations or whatever, they impugn.   It's silly -

the G F'n S is snowing in upstate NY...   deal with it

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  On 6/15/2022 at 10:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Depends on the scaling, actually...

In terms of absolute value, no way - it could be -20 diurnal 'IF' the GFS' various fantasies play out, and there's no way we've been +20 yet. 

That said, it may be hard to get +20 in a June ... climate doesn't really permit that. Otherwise we'd be 95 to 100 far more frequently.  So based on climatolgy ... mm, I'd still say this cool snap is deeper negative than the positives we've had - however much so. Just off the top of the head...

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Yeah  +20 would be tough.  I was thinking back to the May heat we had.  I will try to find the departure

 

ORH was +19.7F on 5/22 so that would fit

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  On 6/15/2022 at 11:38 PM, Torch Tiger said:

yeah it hasn't been "hot" besides ONE day here (96-97ish locally).  But warm and summery most every day, very consistent.

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Been a great start to the season.  A little AN but low humidity many days.  I have enjoyed it.  Heat can begin anytime after Friday. 

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  On 6/15/2022 at 11:18 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are people looking at GFS?

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What about the NAM?  It’s colder than the GFS.  So is Reggie.  ICON is similar to GFS.

Why toss everything other than one Op run of the EURO?

Either way it looks mainly sunny and fine, it’s just funny the resistance you have to all other guidance.

Who cares if it’s in the 60s?  Next time an Op run shows 90+, hopefully all the data will be weighed accordingly.

 

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Be glad you aren't here.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Saturday is shaping up to be a lousy day for outdoor activities, with an usually cold air mass overhead and a period of gusty north winds making it feel even chillier. Have trended temperatures downward with highs only in the 50s in most areas, with some low 60s in the wide valleys.

The latest NAEFS mean wind at 850 millibars is near climatological maximum for northerly flow, with about 30 knots across our region shown at 2 PM. While a low level inversion supports channeled northerly flow in the Champlain Valley, elsewhere mainly stable conditions would keeping wind speeds modest, unable to tap into that stronger wind aloft. However, that will change late in the day or possibly overnight when rapid pressure rises generate a strong isollabaric wind field and widespread gusty north winds develop. Have not added too much of this stronger wind to the forecast at this time but will likely see a period of gusts above 30 MPH Saturday night.

Sunday is shaping up to be a little warmer although still below normal as northerly flow persists, possibly trending northwesterly. 

Relative humidity will fall during the day with anomalously low precipitable water indicative of a dry air mass centered over the region, although even lower values will be to our south and west. NBM dew points are only in the 30s, which would yield minimum RH values in the 30 to 35% range but potentially below 30%.

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