June pattern and forecast discussion

[Cyclone-68]

I’d settle for a weakened carcass at this point 

[dendrite]

Too much harassment from weenie in Tolland?

 

[Torch Tiger]

overnight Stein

[MJO812]

191 days until winter 

[A Moonlit Sky]

Just over a week until the days start getting shorter.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

Just over a week until the days start getting shorter.

Earliest sunrise here is actually tomorrow.

[Torch Tiger]

191 days away from when they start getting longer again!

[A Moonlit Sky]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Earliest sunrise here is actually tomorrow.

Hey so it is. You're right.

[weatherwiz]

191-days until cutter and rain season returns 

[tamarack]

The widespread showers gave us one sprinkle (T) about 2 AM.  Coastal counties (except Penobscot) were the wet spots, though the midcoast got less than south coast and downeast.  Sullivan in Hancock got over 1.8".  Doubt that we get any of the isolated showers this afternoon, so dry until late week.  Yesterday finally reached 80, first time since May 22.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

191-days until cutter and rain season returns 

Right - so ...either way, more than a half a year -

wow

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

overnight Stein

Stein was strong for the MA/NH border last night.

[klw]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

191 days until winter 

Maybe sooner per Burlington AFD (love when they add humor):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models are coming into much better agreement as we
head into the weekend with a deep upper level low diving south
across the northeastern US. Did someone say June snow? Just kidding
but it does appear we could see 850 mb temperatures drop to 1-2
degrees C at the higher summits yielding a few cold rain showers.
The weekend appears to be highlighted by well below normal
temperatures with highs likely struggling to reach 70 degrees even
in the deeper valleys. By Monday, the forecast is really up in the
air as it looks like an omega block will develop with good upstream
blocking across the northern Atlantic. This will likely favor us
remaining entrenched in the upper level low with below normal
temperatures continuing into the first half of next week.

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, klw said:

Maybe sooner per Burlington AFD (love when they add humor):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models are coming into much better agreement as we
head into the weekend with a deep upper level low diving south
across the northeastern US. Did someone say June snow? Just kidding
but it does appear we could see 850 mb temperatures drop to 1-2
degrees C at the higher summits yielding a few cold rain showers.
The weekend appears to be highlighted by well below normal
temperatures with highs likely struggling to reach 70 degrees even
in the deeper valleys. By Monday, the forecast is really up in the
air as it looks like an omega block will develop with good upstream
blocking across the northern Atlantic. This will likely favor us
remaining entrenched in the upper level low with below normal
temperatures continuing into the first half of next week.

Huh? So we're not in a never-ending summer pattern?

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’d settle for a weakened carcass at this point 

Henri?

[powderfreak]

44 minutes ago, klw said:

Maybe sooner per Burlington AFD (love when they add humor):

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Models are coming into much better agreement as we
head into the weekend with a deep upper level low diving south
across the northeastern US. Did someone say June snow? Just kidding
but it does appear we could see 850 mb temperatures drop to 1-2
degrees C at the higher summits yielding a few cold rain showers.
The weekend appears to be highlighted by well below normal
temperatures with highs likely struggling to reach 70 degrees even
in the deeper valleys. By Monday, the forecast is really up in the
air as it looks like an omega block will develop with good upstream
blocking across the northern Atlantic. This will likely favor us
remaining entrenched in the upper level low with below normal
temperatures continuing into the first half of next week.

12z GFS has some pockets of 0C 850s spinning through, ha.  Probably some snow on Mount Washington.

Two different cores rotating through.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

12z GFS has some pockets of 0C 850s spinning through, ha.  Probably some snow on Mount Washington.

Two different cores rotating through.

Grease up those lifts.

[SouthCoastMA]

Surface it's still 70+ in southern new England both days. Sat mid 70s and Sun would be cooler, possibly only touching 70..worst case

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Grease up those lifts.

Nice day up here getting the Gondola ready.  Summer season opens Saturday.

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Surface it's still 70+ in southern new England during the day

Yeah the NW flow looks to keep SNE pretty nice... 60s and 70s.

Total disaster up here though, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday at 18z.

If it's mid-40s at 18z Sunday afternoon that's absolutely miserable.  I think it'll modify a bit though for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Surface it's still 70+ in southern new England both days. Sat mid 70s and Sun would be cooler, possibly only touching 70..worst case

Yeah I don’t understand all the hype. It’s sunny and 70’s for two days before reheat 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Surface it's still 70+ in southern new England both days. Sat mid 70s and Sun would be cooler, possibly only touching 70..worst case

I think with the cold pool of 546 thickness over us that 70 is a stretch.   Lots of clouds at peak heating time.  

[CoastalWx]

Warm and muggy today. September this weekend.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the NW flow looks to keep SNE pretty nice... 60s and 70s.

Total disaster up here though, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday at 18z.

If it's mid-40s at 18z Sunday afternoon that's absolutely miserable.  I think it'll modify a bit though for sure.

Family vacations at Stowe and Jay Peak ending in divorces by Sunday night. Hate to see it.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Warm and muggy today. September this weekend.

First muggy morning here in a while, dew of 64F when I left this morning.

Now 75/48, back to the chamber weather.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

First muggy morning here in a while, dew of 64F when I left this morning.

Now 75/48, back to the chamber weather.

Chamber today, chamber pot Sunday?

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Chamber today, chamber pot Sunday?

Reindeer sweaters.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Reindeer sweaters.

Probably chilly at 1K in NE CT wouldn't you think?

[radarman]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Total disaster up here though, in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday at 18z.

If it's mid-40s at 18z Sunday afternoon that's absolutely miserable.  I think it'll modify a bit though for sure.

if the showers hold off that's pleasant hiking weather at least. Free hot cider and pumpkin muffins to kick off the season?

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

The widespread showers gave us one sprinkle (T) about 2 AM.  Coastal counties (except Penobscot) were the wet spots, though the midcoast got less than south coast and downeast.  Sullivan in Hancock got over 1.8".  Doubt that we get any of the isolated showers this afternoon, so dry until late week.  Yesterday finally reached 80, first time since May 22.

My doubt was unfounded, as a TS (one lonely strike, though <2 mi distant) dumped 0.23" between 1:30 and 2, with more than half coming in 3-4 minutes a few minutes before 2.

If those frigid GFS temps for Sunday verify and are followed that night by clear and calm, we might be flirting with frost mere hours before the solstice.