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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Very impressive area of -SSTA's in the northern Atlantic there. Definitely knocking the AMO down a bit. Likely a product of the persistent vortex in that area and countless systems tracking along it but that is certainly playing an influence on our weather too IMO...especially with the enhancement of any BD potential

Map of SST anomalies

We've been in a period kind of akin to the 1950s over the past several years, and we may be ready to take a plunge into a modified version of the 60s rather shortly...

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For those proponents of the Atlantic May-Aug subsurface as a predictor of the DF NAO, we are off to one hell of a start-

I think that is a very underrated correlation to DJF NAO. I remember back when I used to really dig into long-range looking at that correlation and it seemed rather striking. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan has 80’s in the 10 day in CT everyday other than Sunday . Yet reading the last few pages you’d think it’s not warm and summer Where do these people even come from?

it's not oppressive mid-summer like we'll soon see, but summer nonetheless.  high 70's and 80's is summer

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Max of 61F today in the valley... currently 57F.  What a disaster.

When you don’t enjoy or want summer .. and you want troughs .. this is what you get up there. If I were you.. I’d be rooting this pattern to end .. which it may start to evolve into much sooner than models show. You don’t get this up there with HHH

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And I’ll cite another example.. last week you had all the EMATT folks complaining about a week of clouds, no sun and cool.. while areas west of 495 had sun and summer . Yet today .. those same EMATT were saying best summer ever.. coc ks everywhere including across cheeks..Yet .. if you go back to their posts last week.. it was all complaints. 
 

Again.. you don’t get that in a hot and muggy east coast pattern. It’s so ridiculous when you look at the posts. Most in the know just snicker 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you don’t enjoy or want summer .. and you want troughs .. this is what you get up there. If I were you.. I’d be rooting this pattern to end .. which it may start to evolve into much sooner than models show. You don’t get this up there with HHH

It has been an absolutely awesome late spring/early summer though.  One BN day mixed in with a bunch of AN… we don’t enjoy cold rain but if the trade off is once in a while this for weeks of 70s… it’s not a bad trade.

24 of the last 33 days have had highs >70F despite the average high on June 9th being only 72F.  It’s still early in the warm season, average highs are just above 70 right now and we’ve been enjoying it for a month now.

+4.6 for May and +1.4 for June up here.  So we get one below normal day in a sea of warmth, meh.

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