June pattern and forecast discussion

[dendrite]

Good drink incoming. 

[weatherwiz]

Thus far all convection is behaving. Not even seeing any weak areas of rotation. There was a brief TDS in NJ a bit after 5:00 AM but everything here looks good. Seeing a stronger push of 0-3km CAPE but storm motions seem more parallel to the flow which is likely limiting rotation. 

[weatherwiz]

Parts of RI and SE MA could get hit fairly good with that line south of Long Island. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized areas of wind damage. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Parts of RI and SE MA could get hit fairly good with that line south of Long Island. Wouldn't be surprised to see some localized areas of wind damage. 

Waiting on that to come through in a few hours.  0.17" thus far.  0.95" since yesterday.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Finished with 2.58” see some reports of 3”+ to my south. At 4.48” MTD

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Finished with 2.58” see some reports of 3”+ to my south a

Wow! My Davis is only showing 1.25", will have to confirm with the stratus though. They can be pretty far off sometimes...A good drink non the less

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Wow! My Davis is only showing 1.25", will have to confirm with the stratus though. They can be pretty far off sometimes...A good drink non the less

I’ve got 1.30” so there must of been some enhanced convection rains just to our south.

[weatherwiz]

Keep an eye out in far SE CT, RI, and SE MA

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve got 1.30” so there must of been some enhanced convection rains just to our south.

Ya looks like the goods were from me on south. 

[weatherwiz]

May have to watch northeastern MA for some development later this afternoon if enough mid-level moisture can hang around. 

[Spanks45]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ve got 1.30” so there must of been some enhanced convection rains just to our south.

1.37" in the stratus.....Not too bad

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, kdxken said:

Best. Spring. Ever

These last 30 days have been a beauty. A handful of hot mixed in with 25 coc’s. Next 14 days look about the same too. Maybe summeh finally arrives for the 4th. 

[Typhoon Tip]

"CNN  — 

A “dangerous and deadly heat wave” is on the way for the Southwest through the weekend, the Phoenix National Weather Service warns.

More than 30 million people are under heat alerts, and more than 50 daily high-temperature records could be broken through the weekend – including in Death Valley, California, one of the hottest places on earth."

That blurb in there about DV will be interesting to test. 

The specter of major heat has been looming on the mass-field numerical techniques, and in operational charts, for over a week.  Now seeing it manifest more deterministically ... by whatever discrete means being employed.  

longer observation and hypothesis:   I'm noticing two distinct concerns looking east across the country over the ensuing week, thereafter.   Originally, the extended range thought to release that SW heat, more en masse, sending into a R-wave rollout ... due to the general PNA -->  -PNAP flow structure.  That's the basics for SW/Sonoran release events and continental heat burst takes place.  But, since, the model have been biasing the trough-ridge coupled whole-scale, west of standard model for -PNAP.  That's causing at various run times over the last several days, a tendency for the wholescale flow to take on a quasi -omega flow type, with Pac NW trough, Chicago death dome inferno, and blunting flow that is apparently more impenetrable than a stellar neutronium core along and off the EC.  Jesus... 

It doesn't look like there's anything that really is causing the NW flow and trough to emerge off the EC... almost more like an artifact of the models - I surmise it may actually be the heat in the mid latitude/mid-riff of the country, itself.  A scenario that repeats in the deep extended, too.  I've seen/suspected this during other summers over the years.  

In both scenarios, the PNA establishing the -PNAP over the country, sends a heat explosion that's so intense, it is super-imposing over the initial ridge response, and that physical feed-back causes that west bias as the two come into sync.  That's a non-linear wave effect, incarnate.   In order to be 108 in the STL-ORD longitude, it's gotta be 62 with an east wind in Boston.   

The NAO is neutralized or modestly even positive through this next 10 days to two weeks. It doesn't seem there is any other reason to anchor lower height between Bermuda and the EC ... other than R-wave dispersion forcing the troposphere to tip backward and dive SE off the "planetary heat" bomb that may set up when the initial -PNAP orients, right as the Sonoran/Central Valley California/Pheonix air mass is getting ejected into it.

It is what it is...  It may be that we never can get the truly awesome heat here because these super-synoptic wave events will tend to do that. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

18z gfs sure looked ...Not hot 

I like the last frame where -.5c 850 were over Nova Scotia on June 22

Yea. We’re in a long stretch with a blocky arctic. I’m not sure what the charts indicate in terms of SD but everytime I look, it’s more of the same. Eventually, you’d think it should break down and we’ll torch but it’s been very stubborn with minor bouts of temporary displacement.

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like se Mass going to miss the brunt of todays rains. Good thing we cashed in yesterday 

Meh'd your way to another inch.

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We’re in a long stretch with a blocky arctic. I’m not sure what the charts indicate in terms of SD but everytime I look, it’s more of the same. Eventually, you’d think it should break down and we’ll torch but it’s been very stubborn with minor bouts of temporary displacement.

You nailed the pattern. There were some folks on here talking non-stop summer.

[Damage In Tolland]

Last time anyone checked 75/85 with days of dews interspersed with Coc k days is summer .

it’s been warm since May with AN in means. BOS had 5th warmest spring on record. 
 

and the HHH Locks in for JAS the slightly AN June will be but a forgotten memory .

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. We’re in a long stretch with a blocky arctic. I’m not sure what the charts indicate in terms of SD but everytime I look, it’s more of the same. Eventually, you’d think it should break down and we’ll torch but it’s been very stubborn with minor bouts of temporary displacement.

Mm... I don't think that's it.  

Two aspects to consider:   One, the AO index is in fact rising rapidly and exceeds the 0 SD into positive mode this week.  It's +1 by the weekend, and then settles off to neutrality next week with lingering tendencies to flop positive.  Two,  ... in summer, 'blocks' up N do not correlate/forcing at mid latitudes due to the break-down of the R-wave distribution.

Combining those two facets really does not lend to that assumption ( bold ) above for me.   Plus, just what I'm observing - which (ha) may not mean anything, but op-ed.  

The next two weeks ( who knows beyond...), is precarious.  The nearer term will grab attention as historic heat erupts over the SW and interior California, where there are many millions of civility residing on borrowed time and will have to mass exodus the west over the next 50 years .. ( lol ).  No seriously, it's after that.  There are two opportunities for heat expulsion - and the areal extension east that these afflict is in question.   Like I was offering as hypothesis/explanation for, the models seem to be anchoring a modest trough S of NS ...with no apparent wave forcing - I hunch the heat itself is having something to do with that.   That kind of artifact ... heh, I'm leery of believing is real.  

The Euro operational model has at times, seem to correct that feature out of there... The 12z run yesterday for example... But the 00z reverted back.  Meanwhile, the N Atl. circulation mode is observably different in the operational runs - again - and should actually argue for the stretching/rising heights where that trough is.  The trough appears manufactured and not really part of what R-wave scaffolding is observed.

I think idiosyncrasies in the models - and they may be right.  perhaps this kind of super-synoptic synergy shit will happen and "protect" NE and the upper MA from the heat because of those positive feed backs over the Missouri Valley...  But the arctic domain spaces don't appear to be driving the reason why the heat is being blunted from getting E of Pittsburgh -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You nailed the pattern. There were some folks on here talking non-stop summer.

Summeh PE affects weenies each spring. Some get too excited over the first hot tickle, they blow their loads installing their window units and blackout…when they wake up, they find  coc pounding their backdoor for weeks on end. They’ll do their best to pretend they’re not sore, but we see the walk.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I don't think that's it.  

Two aspects to consider:   One, the AO index is in fact rising rapidly and exceeds the 0 SD into positive mode this week.  It's +1 by the weekend, and then settles off to neutrality next week with lingering tendencies to flop positive.  Two,  ... in summer, 'blocks' up N do not correlate/forcing at mid latitudes due to the break-down of the R-wave distribution.

Combining those to facets really does not lend to that assumption ( bold ) above for me.   Plus, just what I'm observing - which (ha) may not mean anything, but op-ed.  

The next two weeks ( who knows beyond...), is precarious.  The nearer term will grab attention as historic heat erupts over the SW and interior California, where there are many millions of civility residing on borrowed time and will have to mass exodus the west over the next 50 years .. ( lol ).  No seriously, it's after that.  There are two opportunities for heat expulsion - and the areal extension east that these afflict is in question.   Like I was offering as hypothesis/explanation for, the models seem to be anchoring a modest trough S of NS ...with no apparent wave forcing - I hunch the heat itself is having something to do with that.   That kind of artifact ... heh, I'm leery of believing is real.  

The Euro operational model has at time, trying to correct that feature out of there...the 12z run yesterday for example... But the 00z reverted back.  Meanwhile, the N Atl. circulation mode is observably different in the operational runs - again - and should actually argue for the stretching/rising heights where that trough is.  

I think idiosyncrasies in the models - and they may be right.  perhaps this kind of super-synoptic synergy shit will happen and "protect" NE and the upper MA from the heat because of those positive feed backs over the Missouri Valley...  But the arctic domain spaces don't appear to be driving the reason why the heat is being blunted from getting E of Pittsburgh -

I think there is some degree of accuracy with a blocky Arctic. I know this time of year Arctic Oscillations typically don't correlate well to the pattern as their signals weaken, however, if you look at 500mb height anomalies for the first week of the month there is some argument for an Arctic-driven pattern. The ultimate issue though has been that pesky vortex to our northeast (which has seem to become a fixture the past several years during the late spring to about late June) which I guess brings about...is the Arctic driving this fixture?

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Last time anyone checked 75/85 with days of dews interspersed with Coc k days is summer .

That right there is my definition of summer… 75-85F for maxes.

We’ve had a lot of warm days IMO.  It’s been above normal.  I think we forget what the “normals” are for the last 4 weeks.

If there’s a pleasant time to be above normal it’s May to June, likewise in October to early November.

[CoastalWx]

No heat for the next few weeks it seems. 

[CoastalWx]

Summeh

[Baroclinic Zone]

On 6/8/2022 at 8:33 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

0.76"

Ended up with exact same amount today.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think there is some degree of accuracy with a blocky Arctic. I know this time of year Arctic Oscillations typically don't correlate well to the pattern as their signals weaken, however, if you look at 500mb height anomalies for the first week of the month there is some argument for an Arctic-driven pattern. The ultimate issue though has been that pesky vortex to our northeast (which has seem to become a fixture the past several years during the late spring to about late June) which I guess brings about...is the Arctic driving this fixture?

Hence why I said "rising"  - as in ' moving forward'  ? 

He was discussing the blocking in a context that read like it's going to persist - which may be my miss-read...I dunno.  

I don't see that image you are posting above, in the extended ens means, over any source really - and it doesn't show up in the numerical telecons either.  All of which indicate a neutralization and tendency for positive. 

We've just passed(ing) through ( what I think is..) the last of the seasonal lag, the same repeating theme of springs we've seen over recent years.  But that's terminating and just like those last several years, ... I see a 2 to 3 week window for synergistic heat eruptions and here we aer right on schedule with California to Pheonix - 'where does it go next' ? 

I don't think we can count on circulation modes above 40 N the same way we could over the mid spring period.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I don't think that's it.  

Two aspects to consider:   One, the AO index is in fact rising rapidly and exceeds the 0 SD into positive mode this week.  It's +1 by the weekend, and then settles off to neutrality next week with lingering tendencies to flop positive.  Two,  ... in summer, 'blocks' up N do not correlate/forcing at mid latitudes due to the break-down of the R-wave distribution.

Combining those to facets really does not lend to that assumption ( bold ) above for me.   Plus, just what I'm observing - which (ha) may not mean anything, but op-ed.  

The next two weeks ( who knows beyond...), is precarious.  The nearer term will grab attention as historic heat erupts over the SW and interior California, where there are many millions of civility residing on borrowed time and will have to mass exodus the west over the next 50 years .. ( lol ).  No seriously, it's after that.  There are two opportunities for heat expulsion - and the areal extension east that these afflict is in question.   Like I was offering as hypothesis/explanation for, the models seem to be anchoring a modest trough S of NS ...with no apparent wave forcing - I hunch the heat itself is having something to do with that.   That kind of artifact ... heh, I'm leery of believing is real.  

The Euro operational model has at times, seem to correct that feature out of there... The 12z run yesterday for example... But the 00z reverted back.  Meanwhile, the N Atl. circulation mode is observably different in the operational runs - again - and should actually argue for the stretching/rising heights where that trough is.  The trough appears manufactured and not really part of the what R-wave scaffolding is observed.

I think idiosyncrasies in the models - and they may be right.  perhaps this kind of super-synoptic synergy shit will happen and "protect" NE and the upper MA from the heat because of those positive feed backs over the Missouri Valley...  But the arctic domain spaces don't appear to be driving the reason why the heat is being blunted from getting E of Pittsburgh -

Northern Canada has had good bouts of above normal heights since spring began, is all I am saying. A brief spike in early May but we had a stubborn cutoff at that time to compensate for it. It’s Been deflecting pulses of heat ejecting from the SW and when it does arrive, it’s been temporary. 

 

Moving forward, it looks more of the same. Maybe the actual domain space is neutral but I don’t see sustained heat as cold pools continue to get shoved south.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think there is some degree of accuracy with a blocky Arctic. I know this time of year Arctic Oscillations typically don't correlate well to the pattern as their signals weaken, however, if you look at 500mb height anomalies for the first week of the month there is some argument for an Arctic-driven pattern. The ultimate issue though has been that pesky vortex to our northeast (which has seem to become a fixture the past several years during the late spring to about late June) which I guess brings about...is the Arctic driving this fixture?

Yea. That’s the h5 look I’ve been seeing since April, really. 

[Saguaro]

12 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

18z gfs sure looked ...Not hot 

I like the last frame where -.5c 850 were over Nova Scotia on June 22

Yea I'm not seeing it lately. Last week it had quite a few runs showing a solid pattern change to summer and reloading warmth, along with some impressively warm 850 temps over NE. Now it's gone back to the hallmark signature to summers of the 2010s: A struggle to get 850 temps higher than 10c, very transitory departures greater than that, and a seemingly fixed maritime trough that buzzsaws any heat domes attempting to make inroads past the great lakes. Maybe it will flip again, but during my years in NE I saw more than one summer where June unfolded this way and we ended up with May having the highest temperatures of the season.

 

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"CNN  — 

A “dangerous and deadly heat wave” is on the way for the Southwest through the weekend, the Phoenix National Weather Service warns.

More than 30 million people are under heat alerts, and more than 50 daily high-temperature records could be broken through the weekend – including in Death Valley, California, one of the hottest places on earth."

That blurb in there about DV will be interesting to test. 

The specter of major heat has been looming on the mass-field numerical techniques, and in operational charts, for over a week.  Now seeing it manifest more deterministically ... by whatever discrete means being employed.  

longer observation and hypothesis:   I'm noticing two distinct concerns looking east across the country over the ensuing week, thereafter.   Originally, the extended range thought to release that SW heat, more en masse, sending into a R-wave rollout ... due to the general PNA -->  -PNAP flow structure.  That's the basics for SW/Sonoran release events and continental heat burst takes place.  But, since, the model have been biasing the trough-ridge coupled whole-scale, west of standard model for -PNAP.  That's causing at various run times over the last several days, a tendency for the wholescale flow to take on a quasi -omega flow type, with Pac NW trough, Chicago death dome inferno, and blunting flow that is apparently more impenetrable than a stellar neutronium core along and off the EC.  Jesus... 

It doesn't look like there's anything that really is causing the NW flow and trough to emerge off the EC... almost more like an artifact of the models - I surmise it may actually be the heat in the mid latitude/mid-riff of the country, itself.  A scenario that repeats in the deep extended, too.  I've seen/suspected this during other summers over the years.  

In both scenarios, the PNA establishing the -PNAP over the country, sends a heat explosion that's so intense, it is super-imposing over the initial ridge response, and that physical feed-back causes that west bias as the two come into sync.  That's a non-linear wave effect, incarnate.   In order to be 108 in the STL-ORD longitude, it's gotta be 62 with an east wind in Boston.   

The NAO is neutralized or modestly even positive through this next 10 days to two weeks. It doesn't seem there is any other reason to anchor lower height between Bermuda and the EC ... other than R-wave dispersion forcing the troposphere to tip backward and dive SE off the "planetary heat" bomb that may set up when the initial -PNAP orients, right as the Sonoran/Central Valley California/Pheonix air mass is getting ejected into it.

It is what it is...  It may be that we never can get the truly awesome heat here because these super-synoptic wave events will tend to do that. 

Interesting that there's no conventional explanation for this behavior, it happens a lot in NE as you've mentioned in past writeups. It really seems like there's an infinite capacity for new, unforeseen wrinkles to show up like this.

I think last year around this time in June there was a similar SW heat event. I'm back in Maine now for a few weeks so I'll miss this one, but forecast shows up to 114. I think last year's was forecasted a bit higher in the Phoenix area but ended up verifying lower.

Friday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 84.
Saturday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 114.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 84.
Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 112.

Saturday looks to be the peak of it.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

..

Moving forward, it looks more of the same. Maybe the actual domain space is neutral but I don’t see sustained heat as cold pools continue to get shoved south.

I don't see how you can assess that ( bold ) when the AO numerical based curve is outright showing the mode reversal. 

That's not 'more of the same'  - it is in fact, more of the opposite. 

But, we'll see how it plays out.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hence why I said "rising"  - as in ' moving forward'  ? 

He was discussing the blocking in a context that read like it's going to persist - which may be my miss-read...I dunno.  

I don't see that image you are posting above, in the extended ens means, over any source really - and it doesn't show up in the numerical telecons either.  All of which indicate a neutralization and tendency for positive. 

We've just passed(ing) through ( what I think is..) the last of the seasonal lag, the same repeating theme of springs we've seen over recent years.  But that's terminating and just like those last several years, ... I see a 2 to 3 week window for synergistic heat eruptions and here we aer right on schedule with California to Pheonix - 'where does it go next' ? 

I don't think we can count on circulation modes above 40 N the same way we could over the mid spring period.

I read it as through now not moving forward...but to your point, yes moving forward that signal does dampen out quite a bit. And also to your point about the decreasing seasonal lag is we don't always need a massive ridge at H5 to get big heat into here. If we get a very strong sfc high across the Southeast or just off the Southeast Coast that can certainly pump in big heat (and humidity) all while maintaining a more northwesterly flow aloft(indicative of a subtle trough or downwind of a ridge crest)...and this is how we get our higher end severe events (ala summer 1995).