Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 EPS definitely keeps the 70s/50s all 15 days with what looks like is a pattern change to a rain period. 4 days of rainy here total .1 more pollen mud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS definitely keeps the 70s/50s all 15 days with what looks like is a pattern change to a rain period. 4 days of rainy here total .1 more pollen mud Yeah big fail with those early heat and humidity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah big fail with those early heat and humidity forecasts. We too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 hours ago, kdxken said: Haven't even mowed the lawn it's been so dry. Nothing's growing The lawn's thriving here. Lush and mowing it every 7 days (could do it 5-6 but I don't have the time nor ambition) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Another sunny warm morning. Time to get out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 hours ago, Saguaro said: Wow in a few weeks it'll probably be looking like the places around here That’s my hood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 57 and cloudy - great Saturday morning. Maybe by 1pm it will start to break https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks like it may be a full on Sonoran heat release that runs unabated thru summer . Could rival the heat waves of the 90’s wee we had Southwest heat ejection phenomenon doesn't operate in perpetuity. It's a wave event. The flow flips +PNAP --> -PNAP, ...effectively dislodging SW air ... which then if unperturbed by intervening aspect, it has a chance to get loaded into the eastern ridge. Once that initial ejection sequence is complete, that's it. It's a wave event - not like leaving the heat faucet on and walking away. lol I suppose in some imaginative sense of it... it is plausible to have that all take place above, and then the flow pulsates at super-synoptic scales, such that the anomaly merely waxes and wanes from AN to MAN (above normal to much above normal), more cyclically. But I've never seen that. I've seen persistent tendencies to reflex the SE heights back higher, making it easy to heat up..sure. AN summers in general. But not in such way as to alternate between perfectly timed SW ejection scenarios into 104 at Logan destinies, in a dependable framework ( most lucid readers should be laughing at this point..). The problem is, ...there are too many intervening things that happens to interfere with the perfect relay of super heat along the way. That's probably why we don't see the "Hot Saturday" scenario that often. That all said... yeah, we're observing strange heat events with increasing frequency, globally, ...most likely as a part of CC - most attribution studies leave really no room for doubt. These events bring factors together, giving "rise" ( haha) to synergistic results that models couldn't see. Like 117 F where it never has happened type oddities. I'm not saying we can't get into an ensemble line wobble between 94 and 107 ... I'm only here to say that we're experimenting with time, and how long it takes for one of those freak heater to hit home ...as a single wave event, and trying to be proactive and identifying ways to get that done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 15 hours ago, weathafella said: Actually, Seattle summers are spectacular. November's nice there too - only rains once that month. Unfortunately, it starts on the 1st and lasts thru the 30th. SEA wx here yesterday, high of 56, things stayed wet, but only 0.15" RA. Less than 2" since May 1. Gardens just love cool, cloudy, dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Took awhile, but the sun is nice. Rhodies are poppin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Just topped 60F at the top of the hour. Clouds finally eroding away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 75F off a low of 45F. Sunny, puffy Cu, dews in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Torch ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 75F off a low of 45F. Sunny, puffy Cu, dews in the 40s. Our DPs are modestly warmer, with mid 50s at NWS ASOS sites with the typical 7 point bump out among the bucolic settings being baked by June lasing ... LI's are marginal through late afternoon. Can see summit towers W-N of here as they line up over ridge lines. They look crispy ... might be a spot over-achiever/shower here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Absolute top 10 day here. Full sun, mid 70s low humidity. Had a yard sale with the neighbors, nice to move some possessions along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch ! Why don’t you come meet me at TreeHouse Deerfield for a beer sometime? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Took awhile, but the sun is nice. Rhodies are poppin. 3 weeks ago here. Mine are already withered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Why don’t you come meet me at TreeHouse Deerfield for a beer sometime? Let’s do it. Will have to be a day when I’m traveling up that way visiting customers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be... Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions. The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof. Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast. That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole. But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge. The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact. The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans. The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal. Bump for relevancy to the 12z operational GFS... The actual deterministic value is low - it has to be for D9-13 ( as it matters to us...), but the entire evolution from D6+ is a very good illustration for this post shared with Kevin, yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Saw some brief sun that pushed temp into the 60s, now cloudy and breezy. Aroostook under a flood advisory, radar shows some real bright colors in the western part of the County. Also shows nothing upstream for our area. Edit: Some 60-65 dbz a few miles south of Allagash village. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saguaro Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 25 minutes ago, tamarack said: Saw some brief sun that pushed temp into the 60s, now cloudy and breezy. Aroostook under a flood advisory, radar shows some real bright colors in the western part of the County. Also shows nothing upstream for our area. Edit: Some 60-65 dbz a few miles south of Allagash village. Visible satellite shows much of ME once again socked in with the low level marine gloom today. It's finally eroding, though in IZG area that perfectly coincided with some popup storms, so that delayed things further. As of around 15 minutes ago it seems they finally broke out of it. It's amazing how difficult it becomes to get rid of this crud once a BD moves through, and how long it can take. Today is day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saguaro Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Bump for relevancy to the 12z operational GFS... The actual deterministic value is low - it has to be for D9-13 ( as it matters to us...), but the entire evolution from D6+ is a very good illustration for this post shared with Kevin, yesterday. 0Z GFS showed impressive 850 temps around mid month, and 12Z run still has them. I'm surprised the surface temps aren't higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Bump for relevancy to the 12z operational GFS... The actual deterministic value is low - it has to be for D9-13 ( as it matters to us...), but the entire evolution from D6+ is a very good illustration for this post shared with Kevin, yesterday. Covers a large area too. There's a discharge of about 25C at 850 mb to ORD with a wide area of 20C or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 It’s coming . Women and children first 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Swing and a miss on storms againSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Mass pike yellow-out conditions . As you go further west out of the pines it clears up. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, amarshall said: Mass pike yellow-out conditions . As you go further west out of the pines it clears up. . It is brutal today. We had total yellow outs and cars off road from here to TH and back . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It is brutal today. We had total yellow outs and cars off road from here to TH and back . Tell me about it ...jesus christ. just did a 30 mi cycle in that pall. It's hard to sustain 20 mph when you're haulin' in chalk dust. f man what a hack fest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Stay safe out there in pollen land. Had our daily pop-up shower to keep the pollen down up here. As Coastalwx says, it seems to rain every day, even if only for 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Saguaro said: 0Z GFS showed impressive 850 temps around mid month, and 12Z run still has them. I'm surprised the surface temps aren't higher. ... Give it time ... If the 850 mb thermal layout is indeed +24 C on average along the BUF-BOS axis ... over top a BL west wind, while predominately max solar insolation is being realized, that's a rare convergence of metrics. Usually one of those screws up and we end up 89. There's nothing wrong with 100 .. 101, and in fact, from this range, user experienced would tell you that 2-meter T seldom model that large - that's impressive for a D11/12 Also, we are no where close to higher confidence for heat strike here. This is still just recognizing the super synoptic markers, which we appear to have. So we'll see the model cinema as we go, and see how that movie's plot materializes over time. We've seen these normalize ... in fact, the majority of them do, because we just don't get 95+ big heat as frequently as it is modeled at D9-13's. Something about this season smacks of it though. Maybe it's the no rush to rain priming soar potential, with those ongoing attempts at GB flow nadirs.... a leitmotif that flirts with trouble as we head to the end of June through early August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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