weathafella Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 Some indication of a chilly mid month period coming. First week should be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 53 minutes ago, weathafella said: Some indication of a chilly mid month period coming. First week should be warm. It's interesting ... if one is a tedious nerd ( lol ) ... No but it could be a 'warm continental look,' while not resulting that way over eastern NE - which doesn't take a lot of prose to explain how/why if one knows anything at all about this region's climate. 'Blah blah bd have you any wool' The problem emerged more so over the last 24 hours, so 4 cycles of models. The Euro and GGEM bit really hard on the BD idea in the 00z run. So much so that we actually would put together a negative high temp anomaly on Tuesday and Wednesday - complete 180 reversal. This is one those places in the world where late mid range model error can be so excessive as to be diametrical. I mean, two days ago, 95-100 near historic heat wave, poof! 55 F BD joy destroyer. I guess it's better than the 1980s, when it would happen on the day its self. I remember a couple of memorable BDs in mid to late 80s where the forecast was 90 the night before a day that wound up slate gray with cool passing mist. It used to be short duration error/correction - blind sided. At least now the tech is sophisticated enough to at least be sensitive to it at extended leads. The question is, how much or little in this situation. Thing is, I can see this going either direction - interestingly, the last 2 runs of the GFS have done just that. The 06z removed the BD entirely..The 12z brought it half way back. Which means it has had 100% in both directions in the last 24 hours worth of runs. My thing is the -NAO. 1 It's been progged in the various guiadance for some time. As is usually the case...it is stochastic within the frame-work of the daily model depictions. Whether the blocking is biased over the western domain, or east...matters. The east may allow the wave spacing room to pass the flow flatter off the Maritimes... But if it bumps west more, that probably parks 50/50 sort of aspect there and we'd be doomed to cool departures in a warm pattern. 2 The other aspect on that is, the -NAO is notoriously over-sold/constructed at this range... 3 ...Related to that, we are still seeing vestiges of a progressive pattern. It's why the closed low got abolished from the runs recently, transforming the outlook for Mem Day substantially improved. But that tendency doesn't really lend to NAO blocks. If #2 and #3 prevail, these recent BD/heat cancel ideas are model hoaxes and we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 28, 2022 Author Share Posted May 28, 2022 The first week in June is already uncertain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 Keeping my figners crossed for my daughter's graduation on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 29, 2022 Author Share Posted May 29, 2022 6/1 looks on the wet side. It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above. So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Could see stuff form along the backdoor Tuesday night. Could be some decent lightning given ample MUCAPE. The backdoor though really mucks things up for Wednesday and how far west to go for chasing ughhhh. Right along that boundary may not be a bad spot but the question is...where the hell will it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day. wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom - 12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies. Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate. Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through. Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills... This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days. -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance. It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down. As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead. It's just not very summer like. That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 On 5/29/2022 at 4:38 PM, weathafella said: 6/1 looks on the wet side. It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above. So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks. Certainly will! I'll worry about the second half of the month when it gets here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 On 5/29/2022 at 4:38 PM, weathafella said: 6/1 looks on the wet side. It seems like 6/1-10 appears aob with some forays into dews at times but honestly the way it’s setting up 6/15 on may be well above. So summer haters should try to enjoy the next 2 weeks. COC summer days are the way it should be run. Not liking HHH doesn't mean hating summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Loved the 88 Yesterday as I was at the pool, hate the 82 and humid this morning before the door comes thru momentarily in mass (as I wait to mow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 23 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Wednesday may be a rock-bottom day. wow at the shear magnitude of that gloom - 12z NAM has Logan 48 or so Wednesday morning at 8 am under putrid gray skies. Really only gets to about 53 there before those strata rains come in toward dusk. Not sure how far inland that appeal claims ....but, seeing as the boundary clearly surpasses NYC's latitude...with sharp temp cuts upon NE wind shift around 8 pm tomorrow night, this is intending to inundate. Even ALB sees the dense Labradorian miasm spill west of the Berks/Greens, and all locations have problems with cloud layering and trapped/isolated cold in the regions Wed night, while strata rains pass through. Maybe we can at least get an 1" in the tills... This is a highly unusual total hemispheric look through these first 10 days. -AO has become an overwhelmingly dominant signal in the guidance. It gets very complex, but the suppression south of the westerlies, around the entire northern Hemisphere, as is portrayed in all ens some sources/means therein, and is triggering high jet velocities to weirdly south latitudes. That mechanically induces R-wave structures, a behavior that is lagging unusually deeply into the climate season, when they are typically breaking down. As above, the Pacific has an usual 'firehose' jet configuration coming into the west coast with a very vast trough over the top/embedded nadirs... Normally, that would send heights higher over mid latitude of N/A but we are not seeing that happen. The blocking at 60 N is forcing the main westerlies jet S, keeping modest negative anomalies across the expanse of the mid latitude continent, instead. It's just not very summer like. That Pacific above looks like a late October or early November circulation construct, with onset velocities --> R-wave coherency. Music to my ears. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 this weekend looks nice. sun and low/mid 70s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Music to my ears. Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 I’m working in Worcester tomorrow. Should be interesting if there’s much of a difference vs metro west Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Roosters are crowing. Seems to never end. That's a lot of goldilocks weather showing up in the ensembles for June. No major heat on the horizon https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1531764819291947008 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 13 hours ago, kdxken said: Roosters are crowing. Seems to never end. That's a lot of goldilocks weather showing up in the ensembles for June. No major heat on the horizon https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1531764819291947008 This summer isn't shaping up to be half bad.....I don't expect summer to be exciting in terms of sensible weather, just stay out of my damn way and it keep it comfortable, as I track the tropics and await the cold season. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 Gfs looks like ass for first two weeks of June. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs looks like ass for first two weeks of June. We want ass in summer, not winter. lol This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We want ass in summer, not winter. lol This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring. No ass please. Hopefully the torch starts mid month. We have enough of this weather in the Spring. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No ass please. Hopefully the torch starts mid month. We have enough of this weather in the Spring. 80-90 from June 17-late August would be great for me 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We want ass in summer, not winter. lol This is great....get a cool summer, active cane season followed by a decent winter, then its back to Africa in time to skip over next spring. We’re not getting a cool summer lol. Gonna HHH mid June on 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 The cause is different than spring, though. Not that anyone cares what the whip looks like. Make it stop - right? This is an unusual phenomenon that needs its own space/attention: excessive -AO It's not as traditional looking as that which we may observe amid the winter months, however - it's actually quite bizarre. Large vertical height anomaly nodes in the 60/...70 latitude, that have less horizontal dimensions. If we average out the polar domain of this annotation below, it numerically produces a fantastic -AO total, ...but we don't see the R-wave scaffolding of mid winter -AOs. Stab at hypothesis ... this is -AO mapped over a radiatively forced/seasonal warming. Doesn't explain how or why these intense vertical foci of heights are there ... The -AO result may in fact be less wave-mechanically a negative AO, and more just a numerical emergence of another systemic phenomenon. I guess it doesn't matter for the summer-lorn among us... stop the whipping! But, the mid latitudes are not getting summer so long as this below set up... And it's capped the entire world's N. Hemisphere, so overwhelming it's really effecting the pattern underneath at mid latitudes, everywhere... (120 hour EPS mean; 00z June 1 c/o Pivotalweather) The negative anomalies that garland the planet along mid latitudes is what drives the cooler appeal. This total compression causes this westerly/ambient velocities to be way, ..way stronger than normal for this time of year... while the total compression N-->S, suppresses hugely south ( that circumpolar continuous arrow) of climate. I mean this is so bad, I almost want it to just go true climate event and do something super extraordinary. But alas...we likely won't get to see that science awe moment; it'll only gobble 2 week of the summer. This isn't the same as a cut of west Atlantic low... or ensemble-line BDs typical of NE ...while west of Albany basks in Pandorian utopia spring curse... This is some kind of whack planetary problem in scope and scale. It's noteworthy for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 As a low grade concern, yet a smidge higher than base-line climate ( qualified enough ha), we do have a flick our eyes to the side occasionally over the next several days, just to be sure.. Hurricane Agnes was forced through the Central American wall but it's remnants are being reactivated by the Euro. The other models are doing so too...just not with this same proficiency we see below: So long as that westerly limb -NAO is in place ( per the post above, D5). It is not impossible that this TC phoenix might be forces closer along the EC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’re not getting a cool summer lol. Gonna HHH mid June on You said the same thing about April and May. Hope your tomatoes are holding up during this recent cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 51.0F and moderate rain Deep, deep summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 66° and overcast in Northampton so not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: 51.0F and moderate rain Deep, deep summer Crushing me, we've dropped down to 49.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 Made it to Oneonta!!! Drove though some pretty hefty downpours and saw some lightning with early stuff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 Hoping for an MCD soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 51.0F and moderate rain Deep, deep summer so damn frustrating to see the rn just south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now