MNstorms Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 I'm surprised they didn't upgrade to moderate risk for Monday. They do mention there are a couple of concerns. MPX AFD even mentions moderate possible for today. Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday night. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and several tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a couple of intense long-track tornadoes over parts of the Upper Midwest. A dynamic late-spring pattern is forecast on Monday into Monday night with the possibility of a severe-weather outbreak over parts of the Upper Midwest. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A potent mid-level shortwave trough will eject northeastward from southeast CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low. An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow moving from eastern NE into southern MN during the afternoon into the early evening. A cyclone will deepen as it moves from northern KS north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening before occluding. A dryline will extend south-southwestward from the lower to mid MO Valley into central KS and near the TX Panhandle/OK border. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN region. This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as a warm front advances northward. Strong southerly flow will advect richer low-level moisture northward into the eastern Dakotas and western MN by midday. Some model guidance indicates storms may develop during the morning over parts of central NE as upward vertical motion increases with the approaching disturbance. Have trended westward with severe-weather probabilities as a result. Forecast soundings become uncapped by midday into the early afternoon over southeast SD with large CAPE (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and a wind profile strongly supporting supercells. Lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratios 13-14 g/kg in a zone where surface pressure falls will maximize northeast of the surface low, will combine with enlarging hodographs to favor strong supercells. Large to very large hail is probable along with several tornadoes during the afternoon into the early evening. A couple of intense long-track tornadoes are possible if 1) favorable storm mode develops and 2) a notable absence of other convection and destructive storm-to-storm interactions is limited. Additional storms are likely to develop in an arc from southern MN into IA and possibly eastern NE during the late afternoon to early evening. An eventual consolidation of storms and outflow will probably lead to the risk for severe gusts to increase during the evening across MN as the activity quickly moves north-northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 29, 2022 Share Posted May 29, 2022 Large upgrade for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2022 Author Share Posted May 29, 2022 Challenging storm chasing today and tomorrow, despite higher than average tornado probabilities. Today looks to be a close call with convective initiation prior to sunset in Nebraska. Do you drift west and hope for storms coming off the High Plains? Wander north into eastern South Dakota and hope storms can mature, despite weaknesses in the wind fields? Or hang in northeastern Nebraska until time runs out? Definitely reminds me of 6/17/14 in terms of timing. I don’t think storms became established until after 00z. First tornado reports were shortly after 01z. Tomorrow appears to have three plays: 1. Chase the SPC/parameter space bullseye near the MN/Dakotas border. Race east across MN with tornadic supercells likely, but storm motions will be fast and storms may ultimately form an MCS. 2. Play farther south, near the NE/IA border. Storm motion will be more W to E. Question will be how many sustained cells will persist into Iowa? IA has a bad rap for storm chasing. Seems to bust most of the time, but goes bonkers once in a while. 3. Kansas. The not-so-classic Kansas chase setup. Does a storm or two become established? Could play up near I-70 or even go for a Hail Mary down by the Oklahoma border. Good luck to all chasers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 There will be a high significant tornado parameter developing after 22z, toward Duluth. It is likely that several supercells develop in western Minnesota near the low pressure. The storms may develop in a squall line but I expect the shear to he high enough force supercells to occur. The highest dew points and storm relative helicity will in the eastern half of Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2022 Author Share Posted May 30, 2022 Here’s your giant hail: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Yikes Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service North Platte NE 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 NEC071-089-300300- /O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220530T0300Z/ Garfield NE-Holt NE- 929 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN GARFIELD AND SOUTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTIES... At 929 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 13 miles northeast of Calamus Reservoir State Recreation Area, or 16 miles north of Burwell, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and grapefruit size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Carson Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4193 9917 4204 9923 4207 9922 4208 9921 4219 9900 4194 9884 TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 247DEG 26KT 4202 9911 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...4.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Uh. Just a bit of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2022 Author Share Posted May 30, 2022 Higher-end wind profiles for sure… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 From last check there have been 0 tornado reports both on the 28th and 29th. Considering its the end of May, and both days were ENH that is bewildering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Several QLCS rotations and 70 mph winds possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Up to 6 total warnings, 4 different rotations. Maybe a quick spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 13z outlook for wind and tornadoes is in the moderate category, and there is a 30% hatched outlook for hail (not shown) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2022 Author Share Posted May 30, 2022 Late morning weather map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Tornado watch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 80/50 tor probs and it's not even in the Mod area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Tornado Warning SDC079-099-101-302000- /O.NEW.KFSD.TO.W.0024.220530T1913Z-220530T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 213 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 The National Weather Service in Sioux Falls has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Moody County in east central South Dakota... Eastern Lake County in east central South Dakota... Northern Minnehaha County in southeastern South Dakota... * Until 300 PM CDT. * At 213 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Chester, or 12 miles southeast of Madison, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Chester around 220 PM CDT. Wentworth around 225 PM CDT. Baltic around 230 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Colman, Dell Rapids, Trent, Egan, Flandreau and Ward. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4376 9645 4374 9706 4419 9715 4420 9646 TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 247DEG 31KT 4384 9700 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ Weisser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 PDS maybe? Since the "higher end" wording? Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Areas affected...extreme eastern SD into southern/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301906Z - 302030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for strong tornadoes and widespread intense gusts is increasing across extreme eastern South Dakota into southern/central MN. A tornado watch will be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front over southern MN will continue to lift northward through the afternoon. Dewpoints will increase into the mid/upper 60s as this occurs, resulting in rapid destabilization with northward extent over the next few hours. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasing/vertically developing cumulus across portions of southern MN to the south of the warm front. A recent RAOB near Tyler, MN indicated weakening surface-based and MLCIN with very steep midlevel lapse rates in place. Effective shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will support organized supercells, while strong forcing may tend to favor bowing segments, and a mixed convective mode is possible. Enlarged low-level hodographs evident in regional RAOBs/VWPs and forecast soundings show 30-40 kt 0-1 km shear amid enhanced low-level vorticity. This will support intense rotation with any discrete or line-embedded supercells, and a couple of significant tornadoes will be possible into early evening. Hi-res operational CAMs guidance and the experiment Warn-on-Forecast ensemble has been persistent in developing at least a couple of discrete supercells ahead of linear convection. While convective evolution/storm mode remains somewhat unclear, the overall parameter space will support storms capable of producing strong tornadoes and widespread intense (greater than 75 mph) outflow winds. A higher-end tornado watch will likely be needed within the hour. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 05/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 PDS watch out, 90/80 tor probs. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Confirmed TOG near Sinai SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 40 minutes ago, SmokeEater said: PDS watch out, 90/80 tor probs. Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Is this our first one of the year? Or did I miss one already from earlier this year? Also high probs across the board on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 So far nothing really discrete…hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 The storm between Alexandria and Nelson has a confirmed large TOG. Has a nice TDS signature as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2022 Author Share Posted May 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: So far nothing really discrete…hmmm. Not really a big surprise. Also doubts down in Kansas, but the event is still young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, Quincy said: Not really a big surprise. Also doubts down in Kansas, but the event is still young. Why have they been so bullish if it looked sketchy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Why have they been so bullish if it looked sketchy? Maybe strong embedded tornadoes? I'm not sure why they went 15 percent hatched, but so far there has been at least one embedded tornado doing some damage and has had a tight couplet for a surprisingly long time considering it's embedded in the line. It's also in a radar dead zone so it's hard to know for sure how long it's been in the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 30, 2022 Author Share Posted May 30, 2022 54 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Why have they been so bullish if it looked sketchy? Well, shear/instability are there. The parameter space in Minnesota is high-end with some anomalous values, but that doesn’t mean the setup was going to produce a bunch of discrete supercells. I suspect we see some QLCS tornado reports. Kansas is still iffy, but maybe they squeak out a tornado or two around sunset. Even there, storm modes have been mixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Some action in KS but nothing has that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 Started the day in Sioux City and made the decision to go south. It was a race against the clock, but I opted to target eastern Kansas. I chased (or attempted to) a couple of semi-discrete supercells in the Flint Hills, but with trees and lack of roads, I bailed south for isolated cells closer to the Oklahoma border. Those storms started to fade rather quickly, but I was able to get a couple of photos of the southernmost cell, before calling the chase off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 Several semi-discrete supercells formed from the Texas panhandle into northern/western Oklahoma and southern Kansas on Tuesday. I had pretty low expectations going into the day, so I’d say the storms outperformed, despite being HP beasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 After a mix of clouds and sun all morning / early afternoon, it has suddenly turned dark with billowing CU. Might have some storms soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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