2022-23 Winter NAO N. Atlantic SST index

[StormchaserChuck!]

May-Sept, 12-4 since inception in 2005, right now we are favoring -NAO for the Winter.. It goes through Sept, but the anomaly state fluctuates between now and then less than volatility average. At least it wont be strong +NAO Winter. 

[Ji]

May-Sept, 12-4 since inception in 2005, right now we are favoring -NAO for the Winter.. It goes through Sept, but the anomaly state fluctuates between now and then less than volatility average. At least it wont be strong +NAO Winter. 

Nice!

[StormchaserChuck!]

Thanks for responding Ji.. I can kind of envision the whole Winter pattern with this in mind, as -PNA/-NAO have been very correlated since 2019 now. Unfortunately, it's going to dance around our snow chances, etc.. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Time flies.. already almost half way

[WEATHER53]

I think over last 20 years this has become more determinant for us and Enso less so. We gotta have the “right” cold air.

SSW and Mjo is still hard to find predictability in.  Get the negative nap/ao that’s not misplaced too far south and see what happens with other factors.

[IUsedToHateCold]

On 7/10/2022 at 11:20 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I think over last 20 years this has become more determinant for us and Enso less so. We gotta have the “right” cold air.

SSW and Mjo is still hard to find predictability in.  Get the negative nap/ao that’s not misplaced too far south and see what happens with other factors.

ENSO plays a role in the storm track. We’ve been flip flopping between cutters and suppression a lot during our La Niña winters. There have been a number of smaller or medium events some years that sometimes give us a decent winter, but a lack of epic storms directly hitting us (last was 2016) 

If this is another Niña winter I’d expect the same. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Warmer

 

Probably getting close to a +NAO signal.. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

We are heading quickly into +NAO signal. 

Might be a pretty horrible Winter with La Nina

[StormchaserChuck!]

Pushing at about +0.15-0.20 FOR THE WINTER (djfm). 0.54 SD, it looks to come in about ~+0.70 now (May-Sept), +0.16-1.24

[StormchaserChuck!]

Really warm near NF

In my experience +NAO SST signal (May-Sept) + La Nina/+QBO is a confirmation +NAO Winter, meaning it continues/correlates/holds

[StormchaserChuck!]

nothing remotely close since the mid-1970s. we are like 0.60 #2

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Technically, per CPC, it was a +NAO Winter, making this 13-4 since inception. 

2022   1.08   1.68   0.77  -0.36   0.71  -0.12  -0.09   1.47  -1.61  -0.72   0.69  -0.15
2023   1.25   0.92  -1.11

It was within the 0.54 SD too. Something like 10-7 there since inception. 

Right now, through the month of May complete the Winter 23-24 NAO SST index is -0.70 for the coming Winter. Last year it started off negative then went/finished positive. It's a May-September calculation.