WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 Here’s a great HM inspired thread on the complexities of figuring out the steering pattern. Recon will probably help this a bit, but there’s a lot to sort out with the Pacific having a significant impact on the Atlantic upper level pattern in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 We have Fiona. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 While the latest deterministic models take Fiona out to sea, the WB EURO ensembles still show a spread at 0Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: We have Fiona. This makes shrek happy 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: While the latest deterministic models take Fiona out to sea, the WB EURO ensembles still show a spread at 0Z. I think recon will be helpful. While OTS after the Greater Antilles is probably favored at this point, there’s a lot that can change depending on how a complicated pattern unfolds in the Pacific. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 Adding to @Weather Will's post, I want to share some of the latest ensemble guidance. While the operational guidance is good for eye candy and can be modestly helpful in identifying the major steering players like ridges and significant troughs, the ensembles are still where it's at to get a sense of track potential and sensitivity. 06z Operational Spaghetti Plot 06z GEFS 00z EPS I like this one in particular. This is Tomer Burg's super ensemble of the major operational ensembles. This is dated (yesterday) but does an excellent job of showing the spread in ensembles. Super Ensemble 12z 9/14 I'd guess if we had an image of the latest ensembles overnight, the spread would remain but the ellipse would probably lean more toward the west with the EPS showing a bifurcated range, moreso than the GEFS. The spread would still be quite large. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 15, 2022 Share Posted September 15, 2022 18z GFS OP next weekend would be a bit breezy lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Fiona missing us is going to sting. Desperate for real tropical here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Fiona missing us is going to sting. Desperate for real tropical here. I know its a stretch but the ingredients are there. If the trend is for a weaker/slower Fiona that allows the ridge to build over top....and a wild card trough interaction on table. Im desperate too...lets see what 00z has to offer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I know its a stretch but the ingredients are there. If the trend is for a weaker/slower Fiona that allows the ridge to build over top....and a wild card trough interaction on table. Im desperate too...lets see what 00z has to offer. Yea. Probably a NC scraper then off Cape Cod. Maybe we'll get lucky with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yea. Probably a NC scraper then off Cape Cod. Maybe we'll get lucky with this one. Usually we need a shotgun season to have a chance at scraps. Most likely wishful thinking on my part. I do love tropical rains...probably more than any prospect of wind. A good PRE followed by a rain core and some 40-60 gusts. One can dream. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Usually we need a shotgun season to have a chance at scraps. Most likely wishful thinking on my part. I do love tropical rains...probably more than any prospect of wind. A good PRE followed by a rain core and some 40-60 gusts. One can dream. We haven't had a big 8" - 12" rain event in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 8-12” of rain??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We haven't had a big 8" - 12" rain event in some time. Careful what you wish for.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 55 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Careful what you wish for.. Somewhere @WinterWxLuvr is pulling out his knife and is ready to cut anyone in the region wishing for rain. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 WB 0Z ensemble prob runs. All have shifted east in last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 9 hours ago, Terpeast said: Careful what you wish for.. Oh, I know what I'm wishing for, but it's not happening with Fiona. She's a mermaid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 00z Euro actually misses the first trough and turns Fiona back west towards the SE coast. However, it still wouldn’t make landfall beyond Day 10 due to another trough that is swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Seems the ots solution is still the most likely outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: We haven't had a big 8" - 12" rain event in some time. I can tell this post wasn’t from southern MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Somewhere @WinterWxLuvr is pulling out his knife and is ready to cut anyone in the region wishing for rain. @MN Transplant knows my feelings about 8-12" rain events. I don't want another TS Lee, even if it was pretty cool to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 WB 12Z GFS v EURO at Day 5. Fiona misses first trough on EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16, 2022 Author Share Posted September 16, 2022 No matter the intensity, it’s unlikely to miss the second trough. That has trended stronger and keeps the ridge from building over the top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 51 minutes ago, mattie g said: @MN Transplant knows my feelings about 8-12" rain events. I don't want another TS Lee, even if it was pretty cool to experience. MY basement didn't flood 12z Euro appears to be hooking right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: No matter the intensity, it’s unlikely to miss the second trough. That has trended stronger and keeps the ridge from building over the top. Correct…. WB 12Z EURO Day 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 Sub-950 hit on Bermuda per the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2022 Share Posted September 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Correct…. WB 12Z EURO Day 7 It's trough season in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 17, 2022 Author Share Posted September 17, 2022 I have a hotel and plane ticket to PR in my cart right now and I’m not sure if I want to pull the trigger on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 17, 2022 Share Posted September 17, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I have a hotel and plane ticket to PR in my cart right now and I’m not sure if I want to pull the trigger on it. Unsure of how strong a storm it will be for the cost of the trip or are you unsure whether flights will still be available to PR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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