mappy Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 NHC just couldn't name it yesterday? lol 12hrs earlier wouldn't have hurt and the August drought would have ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: NHC just couldn't name it yesterday? lol 12hrs earlier wouldn't have hurt and the August drought would have ended. It wasn’t really a TC yet yesterday. It kinda backslid yesterday afternoon and evening and took off overnight. We earned that futility record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It wasn’t really a TC yet yesterday. It kinda backslid yesterday afternoon and evening and took off overnight. We earned that futility record. pffft they've named worst 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 2 hours ago, mappy said: NHC just couldn't name it yesterday? lol 12hrs earlier wouldn't have hurt and the August drought would have ended. Big Hurricane is rigging the seasonal count. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 Buckle up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand it's a hurricane. 05L DANIELLE 220902 1200 38.0N 43.2W ATL 65 992 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 2, 2022 Share Posted September 2, 2022 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Danielle Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052022 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022 ...DANIELLE BECOMES THE FIRST ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 43.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 On the board! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (1) Hurricanes: 6 (1) Major Hurricanes: 4 (0) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 2, 2022 Author Share Posted September 2, 2022 Feeling good seeing 91L try to get a name. I feel like if I can get two hurricanes out of this period I’m in decent shape with my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 3, 2022 Author Share Posted September 3, 2022 Another one! Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (1)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2022 Share Posted September 3, 2022 This looks fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted September 3, 2022 Share Posted September 3, 2022 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 Jumpin in here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 5, 2022 Share Posted September 5, 2022 On 9/3/2022 at 10:33 AM, Yeoman said: Lol. You ain’t kidding. This whole year minus a few localized events has been pretty unremarkable weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2022 Author Share Posted September 6, 2022 What a beautiful morning presentation from Danielle. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 For the first time since 2020, we have simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic. 2/2 so far. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (2)Hurricanes: 6 (2)Major Hurricanes: 4 (0) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 And as long as they are fish storms, all is well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2022 Author Share Posted September 7, 2022 Tropical storm watches up to the US/Mexico border…on the west coast… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 Despite a lot of handwringing a week ago about my peak season forecast, I'm feeling quite good right now. We have two simultaneous canes in the Atlantic for the first time since 2020, one is expected to be a major which gets me to 1/4 on majors, and the basin continues to gradually get better--the tropical Atlantic still remains hostile on balance, however. Aside from our two hurricanes (and Earl is about to go off) we have multiple areas to watch. Invest 95L This one is most likely to develop, but it has a small window to become a named storm. It's heading toward cooler and more stable air. It'll be a race for a name, but the NHC has 70% odds of development. Atlantic Lemon This one hasn't come off Africa yet, but it'll be coming off further south into a somewhat conducive environment. The operational guidance is lukewarm on it, but the ensembles are a bit more bullish on it getting west. if it survives the trip across the tropical Atlantic it could be another player in the western Atlantic. Central Atlantic Trough The Euro has tried leading the way in showing part of a northeast trough breaking off after interacting with Earl and developing into a tropical or subtropical low. Whether this happens will impact what happens with the Atlantic Lemon and the wave after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2022 Author Share Posted September 10, 2022 Earl let me down in not becoming a major, and it looks like the ones above will go 0/3. Just a struggle to get anything really going this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Either way, thanks for all the updates. Your posts are my source to keeping abreast of the tropics. I really enjoy your updates. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Earl let me down in not becoming a major, and it looks like the ones above will go 0/3. Just a struggle to get anything really going this year. I don't think we see a major hurricane this year in the Atlantic basin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Happy Climatological Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season day! ... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11, 2022 Author Share Posted September 11, 2022 4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: I don't think we see a major hurricane this year in the Atlantic basin. Definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 Let's talk Invest 96L, which I highlighted as the Atlantic Lemon a week ago. While the guidance has waffled the last week over development odds for this one, in the last 18 hours 96L has made a sizable move toward development in advance of reaching the Lesser Antilles. This invest has been buoyed by a large moisture envelope that to date has kept dry air from significantly disrupting convective activity. While convection did collapse yesterday, this wave has not had the look of virtually every other wave crossing the tropical Atlantic this season. That said, there remains reason to be skeptical. Even in the visible image above you see issues. On the NW side you can see arc clouds shooting outward, a clear sign of dry air. To the SW, you see wind shear as the cloud tops ahead get blown away. The shear analysis from this morning shows 96L threading the needle. I don't think this one is going to fizzle out at this point, but the above does tell me that this still has the potential to sputter as it tries to find its footing organizationally. That has implications downstream as land interaction will be key to both track and intensity. The image below is busy but important. This is an overlay of 00z EPS and GEFS ensemble tracks with water vapor. Once again, despite a large moisture envelope, the ever present dry air is...well...present. It wouldn't take much IMO to hold this one back, and that's basically what the guidance shows. There's a clear consensus, at least in this model cycle, that it remains relatively weak and heads toward the northern part of the Antilles. Places like Puerto Rico should watch this closely in case this becomes the first system of the year in the tropical Atlantic to overperform a little, which it has done so far. So while it has certainly made progress that may allow it to become a player in the medium to longer range, the environment is still marginal to hostile, and it has some work to do organizationally. We need to see if this organizational trend continues. If it does, that significantly increases the odds that it develops before the Antilles. I don't think it's really worth talking long range track right now, but this early I think all options are on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 14, 2022 Author Share Posted September 14, 2022 TD 7 coming at 11am. Nice to see an overperformer for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 GFS Long range! LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: GFS Long range! LOL! Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 15, 2022 Author Share Posted September 15, 2022 This looks like a TS to me right now. Very nice convection near the LLC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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