WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS IOTW, a low somewhere in the Atlantic? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Granted I’ve only looked at the gfs, but it would suggest that we won’t be seeing a tropical system approach the US mainland any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Granted I’ve only looked at the gfs, but it would suggest that we won’t be seeing a tropical system approach the US mainland any time soon. Outside of some fluke in the gulf, I don't see how we get a landfalling US hurricane this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2022 Author Share Posted August 29, 2022 7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: IOTW, a low somewhere in the Atlantic? Considering we can barely get convection in the entire basin, that’s a step up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Outside of some fluke in the gulf, I don't see how we get a landfalling US hurricane this year. I like the boldness. A large blob of gusty heavy rain will form in the GoM and someone will name it. Then they'll declare it a Cat-1 based on recon. Highest actually measured gust will be 50 mph, and it will be called "the most devastating hurricane to make landfall this year". (sort of true) And there your prediction is ruined by one storm. (Sorry my post doesn't add much to the discussion, but it's just so slow now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said: I like the boldness. A large blob of gusty heavy rain will form in the GoM and someone will name it. Then they'll declare it a Cat-1 based on recon. Highest actually measured gust will be 50 mph, and it will be called "the most devastating hurricane to make landfall this year". (sort of true) And there your prediction is ruined by one storm. (Sorry my post doesn't add much to the discussion, but it's just so slow now.) Notice how I said "some fluke in the gulf" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS is certainly not very enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS is certainly not very enthused. Oh it's gone. Bermuda threat, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oh it's gone. Bermuda threat, if that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2022 Author Share Posted August 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Probably going to be waiting a while longer for a US threat lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 WB GFS ensembles Probs say no threats through Labor Day week….enjoy the beach!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 On 8/21/2022 at 7:12 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 1. Current Atlantic Lemon This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic. 2. Follow up Atlantic Wave A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now. 3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend. 4. Offshore East Coast Low This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying. On 8/23/2022 at 8:43 AM, WxWatcher007 said: Adding to this. -The lemon looks meh, but that was expected at this point. -Follow up wave is a question mark. Guidance has backed off a bit for now at least. Let’s see what happens when it comes off Africa. -Still a light ensemble signal for a weak low, now in the BOC. -Meh for #4 but the signal is still there. More on operational guidance though so not expecting much. -I’ll add a new area 5. Disturbance near Antilles The ICON, which I don’t look at for tropical, was apparently trying to pick up on a disturbance breaking out of the monsoon trough near the coast of South America, and now the GFS (and GEFS/EPS) are flirting with something breaking away and into the Caribbean. Unlike the rest of the tropical Atlantic, this environment is warmer, more moist, and has less shear (for now at least). Problem is this is the monsoon trough, which can be hard to break out of, and it’s so low spin/vorticity May be tough. Might be worth a casual eye, especially if the ensembles start to pick up on it more. At this point though, these are little more than straw grasping. We don’t have great signals for any. Yet. An August shutout is still unlikely imo but is a legitimate possibility. #1 was killed by dry air. #2 is 91L. #3 was killed by shear and dry air. #4 disappeared for a while but is now back on the models now that there’s a tangible boundary. It’s (more or less) the central Atlantic lemon. #5 was killed by shear and dry air. Just holding my forecasts accountable. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 Not wishing for carnage but would enjoy some wx energy to replace this wx drama. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 If August does draw to a close Wednesday without a single named storm forming, it will be the first empty August since 1997. Source: Washington Post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 Let's do a quick look around the tropics this morning, as we are poised to end August with no named storms for the first time in over 20 years. 1. North Central Atlantic Low This one may have disappeared on the guidance for a while, with a number of false starts on the models about what would develop in the north central Atlantic, but with a stalled boundary, we finally had a mechanism for what is likely to be tropical genesis. Hard not to get a chuckle this morning as this one stands the best chance of breaking the drought during peak season. This one is worth an invest, and I lead with it because while it still has work to do (it's attached to a now decaying boundary) this one looks primed to develop. The caveat here is that everything has struggled in the Atlantic, but with a pocket of low shear and importantly--a more moist environment, it's likely to pick up a name. Ceiling TBD, but for 2022, this one looks pretty damn good. I think this could become a hurricane, which would be peak 2022. 2. Invest 91L Now we turn to our old and disappointing friend, Invest 91L. It's been trying, but hasn't found a way to organize effectively in large part due to a dry environment around it. This is the MDR in late August, folks! My mocking aside, this does look organized enough to develop into a named storm, and as some of the guidance suggests, it may take a few more days and a different heading to allow for enough favorable conditions to get this one to go. Until then, we watch and wait. This one isn't a threat to land IMO, and probably doesn't even threaten Bermuda. 3. East Atlantic Low This one is looking better this morning, but it's about to run into a buzzsaw! A number of factors will take this seemingly promising wave more northwestward into a quick recurve, which will put it right into more (you guessed it) dry air and cooler SSTs. Not sure it can get a name, but here's hoping for my forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 The low in the central Atlantic has been designated Invest 93L. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 The race is on in the Atlantic! Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. Place your bets! Who will be the first NS? Who will be the first hurricane? 91L? Or 93L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 @WxWatcher007 93L for winning both the named storm race and hurricane race. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The race is on in the Atlantic! Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. Place your bets! Who will be the first NS? Who will be the first hurricane? 91L? Or 93L? Will either cross 60° west? Inquiring minds want to know lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Will either cross 60° west? Inquiring minds want to know lol 91L should lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The race is on in the Atlantic! Maybe it took a little competition from 93L to get 91L in gear, but it has a strengthening mid level center and deep convection despite nearby dry air that should allow further organization. Place your bets! Who will be the first NS? Who will be the first hurricane? 91L? Or 93L? Which do you pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Which do you pick? Hmm… I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum. I think 93L will be our first hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hmm… I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum. I think 93L will be our first hurricane. but will my myrtle beach trip be impacted thanks for all you share friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 31, 2022 Author Share Posted August 31, 2022 1 hour ago, mappy said: but will my myrtle beach trip be impacted thanks for all you share friend! No landfalls on the horizon! Watch out for rip currents! Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 After a promising start, 91L has…fallen behind… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love this one. Models have coalesced around tropical genesis along a decaying boundary in the north central Atlantic. Still has work to do, but with a favorable environment, this should develop. I think this beats 91L to a name. 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hmm… I think 91L will get a name first. It has strong convection and what should be a tightening center. I’m worried it’ll sputter on dry air though and lose momentum. I think 93L will be our first hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 1, 2022 Share Posted September 1, 2022 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. Former 93L, current TD5, is probably already Tropical Storm Danielle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 hour ago, George BM said: Yeah. Former 93L, current TD5, is probably already Tropical Storm Danielle. Yeah. This is probably a NS by 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 1, 2022 Author Share Posted September 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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