WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 Very interesting day in the tropics. 96L on the SE coast could have been a TD with less land interaction, and Bonnie (below) is really cooking as it approaches landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 96L along the SC coast is now producing TS wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 Watching tropical cyclone genesis is always so neat. 96L was persistent. Now let’s see what happens with Bonnie as it achieves the rare crossover. Although it has underperformed for most of its time in the Atlantic, it has overperformed in the last day. Look at this structure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 4, 2022 Author Share Posted July 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted July 7, 2022 Share Posted July 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 7, 2022 Author Share Posted July 7, 2022 Yeah unless things pop along a front, I think we’re quiet for a few weeks. Get your sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Share Posted July 10, 2022 While the Atlantic basin is quiet and should remain so as we wait for the large scale pattern to change in 2-3 weeks, it's time to watch our tried and true method for homebrew : stalled fronts. The guidance has had a weak but consistent signal that a stalled front in the Gulf will be the focal point for an area of low pressure to develop along the northern Gulf coast. Overnight, both the operational GFS/Euro and their ensembles presented a growing signal for some disturbed weather with development potential. I'm a bit lukewarm on it right now, given proximity to land and potential for shear/dry air, but it's a little early to really get into details. It's something to watch with a casual eye. Why? The northern Gulf has some of the highest SST anomalies in the entire Atlantic, and the warmest SSTs, as is often the case. It's still impressive to see though, and heightens the chance that good convection that can organize gets going in that region. One other thing to note--not necessarily for this potential system but rather the future--there is a sizable warm eddy that could become trouble down the road for a CV that gets to the Gulf. Finally, I'll just draw your attention to TCHP across the basin. The Caribbean is always loaded but off the SE coast and in the Gulf--prime homebrew regions, the building warmth is on par with our recent well above average seasons. While the focal point along the front this time will be the Gulf, given the warmth and climo off the SE coast we shouldn't be surprised if we see potential jump to the SE coast in the next 10-15 days as we see fronts continue to make it south given the current upper level pattern. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently located over the southeastern United States. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 10, 2022 Author Share Posted July 10, 2022 12z Euro is quite bullish. It meanders a low off the northern Gulf, strengthens it to around 992mb and tracks it NE through the southeast. That would be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 Not worth much right now but the Euro is consistent in bringing whatever happens in the Gulf northeast. Could be a good rainmaker for some further up the coast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 11, 2022 Author Share Posted July 11, 2022 Yes Yes and YES 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 14, 2022 Author Share Posted July 14, 2022 The Gulf system underperformed, but that’s what happens when shear overpowers a favorable SST environment. I’m still expecting things to pick up in another two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted July 15, 2022 Share Posted July 15, 2022 It’s kinda weird to me to see October slightly above August, but it makes sense now that I think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted July 16, 2022 Share Posted July 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10. Is this like the 3" probably maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 16, 2022 Author Share Posted July 16, 2022 20 hours ago, Rhino16 said: It’s kinda weird to me to see October slightly above August, but it makes sense now that I think about it. Yeah, there’s a secondary peak in the middle of October, while usually most of August is quiet. It’s not until around the 20th that things pick up in August, though I think we’re looking right at the start of the month this year. 13 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10. It’s coming. Probably very late July/early August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 17, 2022 Share Posted July 17, 2022 What are the names. Tell me the names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 21, 2022 Share Posted July 21, 2022 WB 12Z EURO still pretty quiet next 10 days. Ensemble shows few members with low pressure off the SE coast at end first week of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 I'll take a dud season for in exchange of some IKE in the form of an early Jan Nor-Easter getting buried aka Jan '96 redux! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 22, 2022 Author Share Posted July 22, 2022 Basin isn’t really ready for prime time yet, but we’re starting to see subtle seeds of potential activity. Around the end of July/first week of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 22, 2022 Share Posted July 22, 2022 I am looking at the water vapor map over the past 4 hours and now the visible satellite looks like there could be a weak system in the eastern Turks and Caicos Islands. Looks like it is right under a high-pressure system as all air is evacuating in all sectors. Looks like a bit of southerly shear and a fair amount of dry air to its north and northwest, but it appears the dry air is lifting northeaster ward. Guess this could be something to keep an eye on. Pennsylvania Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 24, 2022 Author Share Posted July 24, 2022 On 7/22/2022 at 6:45 PM, Kevin Reilly said: I am looking at the water vapor map over the past 4 hours and now the visible satellite looks like there could be a weak system in the eastern Turks and Caicos Islands. Looks like it is right under a high-pressure system as all air is evacuating in all sectors. Looks like a bit of southerly shear and a fair amount of dry air to its north and northwest, but it appears the dry air is lifting northeaster ward. Guess this could be something to keep an eye on. Pennsylvania Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Just a little too much shear and dry air right now. Really need the basin pattern to get a little more favorable. Just not there yet but it’s coming. You can tell by how the guidance is starting to get traceable waves across the Atlantic in about 7-10 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 WB 0Z tropics still look quiet and dusty the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 30, 2022 Author Share Posted July 30, 2022 Yeah—very quiet. Thought we’d be heating up around now but that’s obviously wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah—very quiet. Thought we’d be heating up around now but that’s obviously wrong. This season is going to be a total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: This season is going to be a total dud. That should get things started 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That should get things started I'll do whatever it takes to will a Cat 2 into Point Lookout 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2022 Author Share Posted July 31, 2022 End of July Tropical Update It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why. While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get. It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high? I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin. second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. Overall I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual. I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3, 2022 Author Share Posted August 3, 2022 Finally some fantasy homebrew on the GFS! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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