WxWatcher007 Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 First cherry of the year. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Brown/Bucci 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Will be a coastal scraper for OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 2, 2022 Author Share Posted June 2, 2022 This is pretty significant. This is about as aggressive a forecast you can have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 3, 2022 Author Share Posted June 3, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 9, 2022 Author Share Posted June 9, 2022 It’s a pretty big signal. Hard to believe we’re about a third of the way through June. The next six weeks are huge for the MDR with regard to warming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22, 2022 Author Share Posted June 22, 2022 Still a little early for CV season, but now it’s time to start watching the MDR with a closer eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 The EPS is now squarely on board with tropical genesis occurring with the current wave in the eastern Atlantic. It’s early climo wise for action in the MDR and east/central Caribbean, but guidance across the board shows a relatively favorable upper level environment with dramatically reduced trade winds. Anomalous for this time of year. The wave itself is convectively active, but disorganized. The NHC now has a lemon on it. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Hagen/Berg 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 The 12z guidance so far today is a little more aggressive with TC genesis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 Euro comes in hot with development of the wave in 5 days. Operational guidance at this range should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but given the awfully favorable upper level environment, I do think there’s greater than 50% odds for another named storm to develop next week. I’m interested. With the wave being so low in latitude, the odds of it hitting something are high. Watch the amplitude of the ridge… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 23, 2022 Author Share Posted June 23, 2022 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2022 Author Share Posted June 24, 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2022 Author Share Posted June 24, 2022 I’ve noticed this on the guidance and yeah, maybe some weak homebrew for the Gulf possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 25, 2022 Author Share Posted June 25, 2022 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 WB 12Z EURO tropical storm probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 25, 2022 Author Share Posted June 25, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2022 Author Share Posted June 27, 2022 I really want to find time to do a tropical update. Ugh. Recon has arrived at the invest. This one is more organized now that it’s moving past 50W, but we’ll see if it’s enough to to get designated. It’s going to pass very low, almost scraping South America, which is pretty uncommon, en route to Central America. Meanwhile the gfs continues to show development of the wave after 94L. I’m fact the 12z run takes it into Florida next week as a weak TS. The environment is much more hostile after 94L so grain of salt there. Ensembles have been showing a signal though, hence the lemon issued today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2022 Author Share Posted June 27, 2022 PTC Two coming at 5pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: PTC Two coming at 5pm. The Atlantic looks very unJune-like with all of the convection and AOIs in multiple locations (two in the MDR). The only sign that it's still very early in the season is the fact that all of the convection in the MDR is at or below 10N in latitude owing to the ITCZ still being well south of 10N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2022 Author Share Posted June 27, 2022 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That’s awesome! You can see how PTC 2 traverses lower shear while the trailing wave runs right at the shear. Still, the gfs continues to be quite aggressive in developing something out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 Stand by for a tropical update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2022 Author Share Posted June 28, 2022 Tropical Overview--6/28/22 It has been a quiet June, but as we turn the page from June to July, an unusually favorable environment has allowed for multiple areas of interest to pop up. Let's start with the Atlantic before turning closer to home. To be clear--this is still a time of year that is generally hostile to tropical genesis, especially out in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic and Caribbean. In fact, the eastern Caribbean is notoriously called "the graveyard" this time of year because of hostile wind shear. This time however, there are a couple of factors that have opened the Atlantic, briefly, for business. First and foremost, we see a dramatic drop in wind shear that has allowed for PTC Two and the second Atlantic area of interest to have a shot at development. In addition to this, we saw the passage of a CCKW, which enhanced convection across the basin and helped PTC Two as it exited the ITCZ. This kind of shear in the MDR and especially eastern Caribbean is unheard of for this time of year. As you can see, the high shear is displaced to the north, which has implications on the two Atlantic areas of interest. A sprawling ridge over the Atlantic will shunt PTC Two to the west and put it on a rare collision course with South America before making landfall in Central America. In fact, the forecast track is suppressed so far south it seems possible that this system could cross over relatively intact into the Pacific. Because PTC Two stays south, even with land interaction it is unlikely to encounter the kind of shear that would inhibit it from intensifying to near hurricane strength before landfall in Nicaragua. On the other hand, the wave behind PTC Two is likely to find a weakness that will propel it further northwest, into the shear buzzsaw zone. Although a wave axis may stay intact, the models forecast strong shear that is likely to keep the second wave from being a significant player. Still worth watching, but only with a casual eye. Not much analysis needed on that one at this time. As you can see from the wave propagation plot above, we're likely to go to a suppressed phase shortly, that will likely close the window for MDR development until we start ramping up toward the climatological peak of the season and CV season. Given the impressive expanse of the warmth thus far (though MDR SSTs remain meh) and ongoing La Nina conditions, I expect the basin to really go into high gear once we get to August, higher than what climo would suggest. In fact, looking at the TCHP chart compared to other years at this time, the warmth we see in the Gulf, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is significant. Even if waves aren't ready for prime time in the MDR, conditions look generally favorable closer to the coast. But I'm getting ahead of myself... Closer to home, we have Invest 95L, which was designated this morning near the Texas coast. The guidance has forecasted some weak development, and given current SSTs and relatively low shear (though still there) development is possible. There is an apparent low level center that has developed, and some shallow convection. You can see a clear LLC, but it's unclear how durable that will be. If it is durable, it increases the odds of tropical cyclone genesis. However, there's shear that evident on this loop, as well as some dry air that may inhibit development. There's not much analysis to do here: this invest needs time, which is in short supply, but if we start seeing convection and pressure drops over the apparent center, the odds of development go up. Heavy rain is the biggest threat here. Overall, we see a few areas of interest as we close out June, which is unusual. This should be short lived, especially in the MDR region, as the basin continues to slowly come to a boil. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2022 Share Posted June 28, 2022 Love these write ups 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 I hope this is preseason jitters for the models lol because the performance has not been great…especially the Euro with regard to PTC Two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Author Share Posted July 1, 2022 While all of the areas of interest in the Atlantic have underperformed, thanks to @nwohweatherI can weenie out on this. This is actually from the Bahamas MCS that slowly drifted up the coast over the last few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: While all of the areas of interest in the Atlantic have underperformed, thanks to @nwohweatherI can weenie out on this. This is actually from the Bahamas MCS that slowly drifted up the coast over the last few days. It's just so well defined and convection appears to be strengthening over the Gulf Stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 (inner winter weenie) ITS COMING NORTH THIS IS JANUARY 2000 ALL OVER AGAIN ONLY IN JULY 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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