MN Transplant Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Nice. I didn't expect him to be that far west. If he cashes in there with a center pass I should be a lock up here. Famous last words. Morning modeling looks pretty good for you. There seems to be a touch of a bend back at landfall. Even if it slips to your east, that'll just make the water even more wild with a more northerly/westerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Morning modeling looks pretty good for you. There seems to be a touch of a bend back at landfall. Even if it slips to your east, that'll just make the water even more wild with a more northerly/westerly component. Yep, that's what I figured. It's all down to nowcasting now. It's hauling up this way. https://media1.giphy.com/media/DpD25Z4bwv128wELZP/giphy.gif?cid=790b7611a7b1036802073fc007587d857c8e01987be1337d&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Stay safe @WxWatcher007. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12z Euro is a Charley-like track for TD9, but it makes a second landfall on the NC/SC border and passes through here as a remnant with some rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Euro would be interesting around here next Friday. After Florida landfall makes a second landfall at the NC/SC border. Then moves N/NW through Virginia and west Virginia. Probably a decent amount of rain and maybe some severe with that track . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z Euro is a Charley-like track for TD9, but it makes a second landfall on the NC/SC border and passes through here as a remnant with some rain. TD10 will be Ian and ours. Just wait. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Good luck and stay safe @WxWatcher007! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Euro would be interesting around here next Friday. After Florida landfall makes a second landfall at the NC/SC border. Then moves N/NW through Virginia and west Virginia. Probably a decent amount of rain and maybe some severe with that track . Birthday for me and tropical system potentially? Nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Many of the EPS tracks hook it back into the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 43 minutes ago, mappy said: TD10 will be Ian and ours. Just wait. AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS TD10 is now Hermine! A certain DC native and occasional poster is very pleased this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 49 minutes ago, mappy said: TD10 will be Ian and ours. Just wait. When I saw about 10 earlier I thought about you and the "I's" Lol Yep ya know it's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Many of the EPS tracks hook it back into the coast. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, George BM said: AL, 10, 2022092318, , BEST, 0, 182N, 203W, 35, 1002, TS TD10 is now Hermine! A certain DC native and occasional poster is very pleased this afternoon. Whelp, guess remnants from TD9/Ian will be ours instead 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: 12z Euro is a Charley-like track for TD9, but it makes a second landfall on the NC/SC border and passes through here as a remnant with some rain. This is the way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 This is always the most nerve wracking time. After all the tracking, after all the research, after all the travel…you just hope you made a good call. We shall see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is always the most nerve wracking time. After all the tracking, after all the research, after all the travel…you just hope you made a good call. We shall see. Good luck. We’re all counting on you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 I would think that the 18z GFS track would be decent for a heavy rain and severe threat next Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, it's a gamble being on the island. Driving over it yesterday I think it'll be ok as long as it doesn't get crushed by waves. I'm guessing Josh is down by Canso? What is the water temperature up there? I was in OC today and the water is still in the low 70's there. Waves were not as big as I expected. Kind of disappointing in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: What is the water temperature up there? I was in OC today and the water is still in the low 70's there. Waves were not as big as I expected. Kind of disappointing in all honesty. Not off the top of my head, but they're above normal. Note how Fiona is trying to hang onto an eyewall despite the interaction with the trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Closest active buoy is roughly 100 miles from Fiona at this point. No wind instrumentation on that buoy. But wave heights of 15.1 feet at 7 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2022 Author Share Posted September 24, 2022 Recon just found an extrapolated pressure of 927.9mb... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 18z Euro is more favorable to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 35 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon just found an extrapolated pressure of 927.9mb... FYI - Josh posted that he’s going to ride it out in Sydney, so on the island with you, but on the east side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Man that thing is hauling ass. 45 MPH forward motion. 60 miles from the center waves are 19 feet at 8 seconds. Crazy. Edit: Now 21 feet at 9 seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 Too bad we lost pressure readings from Sable Island https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=CWSA&hours=72 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro is more favorable to us. Favorable as in better track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Favorable as in better track? Appears so. 00z hurricane models look promising as well. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2022 Author Share Posted September 24, 2022 965mb currently and dropping. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24, 2022 Author Share Posted September 24, 2022 Power out but I’m ok. Just got back from a local survey and will post pics when I can. Center missed but I recorded a low pressure of 941.9mb. Henry Island over hurricane force again. Not getting that here but the winds are picking up substantially. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 24, 2022 Share Posted September 24, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Power out but I’m ok. Just got back from a local survey and will post pics when I can. Center missed but I recorded a low pressure of 941.9mb. Henry Island over hurricane force again. Not getting that here but the winds are picking up substantially. You're a boss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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