yoda Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 12z GFS run would likely be a tornado producing track for us . Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yup... and 850mb has 45 to 50kt winds too at 270 lol... so some wind as well Not that it matters this far out - but the wind gust product is pretty garden variety. But again - it's fantasy land lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 AL, 08, 2022092018, , BEST, 0, 341N, 448W, 35, 1009, TS Looks like Gaston may be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 Yasss notching another one at 5pm. 98L isn’t far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Euro has the mythical Tampa landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Euro has the mythical Tampa landfall Best place to be is in the bullseye ten days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 WB 12Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 Gaston on the board. Hermine not too far behind. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (4)Hurricanes: 6 (3)Major Hurricanes: 4 (1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Hermine soon to be in 10 days…..take a guess WB 0Z (actually EURO and GFS pretty close at Day 10 but GFS falls apart this run to our SE later in the run with only glancing blow.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 Really illustrates how much track uncertainty there is. Definitely worth watching even for the east coast because the latter period pattern could have a trough cutting off and ridge blocking an east escape path if it crossed into the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 21 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: zzzzzzz Cat 4 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Not the perfect track yet, but the 12z GFS suggests teachers and kids can start rooting for a day off on Monday, October 3. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 How much for short pump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Looks like 2 primary groups for future Hermine/Ian tracks in the GEFS. Quicker moving track cuts east across Florida and moves up the coast, but mostly offshore. Second group is slower and gets into the Gulf where it then moves onto the north Gulf shore and then maybe eventually impacts us like that Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, H2O said: How much for short pump? 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like 2 primary groups for future Hermine/Ian tracks in the GEFS. Quicker moving track cuts east across Florida and moves up the coast, but mostly offshore. Second group is slower and gets into the Gulf where it then moves onto the north Gulf shore and then maybe eventually impacts us like that Op. Never doubt an "I" storm. They've treated us well over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 WB 6Z… significant difference in track even in the short range still to be resolved….GFS v. EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 JB getting excited over 98L. Setup seems ideal for some rapid strengthening. Lots of O&G infrastructure if it takes the LA path, could be interesting give our ever dwindling SPR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 The Euro track is so similar to Charley. Weak TD/TS through the southern Caribbean, slides south of Jamaica, cuts up through Cuba near Havana, and into southern FL. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Latest EPS says nothing to worry about in the Mid Atlantic…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Latest EPS says nothing to worry about in the Mid Atlantic…. Yea its a heartbreaking run. We smoke cirrus while New England cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea its a heartbreaking run. We smoke cirrus while New England cashes in. Do people actually hope for a direct hurricane hit here? I feel like the only people who would want that are city apartment dwellers or young people who have never experienced just how destructive and life changing 100mph winds and 10" of rain are (and bank account draining). Noreasters are one thing but hurricanes are in another league. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 35 minutes ago, IronTy said: Do people actually hope for a direct hurricane hit here? I feel like the only people who would want that are city apartment dwellers or young people who have never experienced just how destructive and life changing 100mph winds and 10" of rain are (and bank account draining). Noreasters are one thing but hurricanes are in another league. Another year - and another "ethical" argument. We don't control the weather - but if there must be exciting weather we will track it as any weather enthusiast would. I don't *hope* for a EF-5 tornado to hit my house - but dangit I'm going to track it with awe if it comes my way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Another year - and another "ethical" argument. We don't control the weather - but if there must be exciting weather we will track it as any weather enthusiast would. I don't *hope* for a EF-5 tornado to hit my house - but dangit I'm going to track it with awe if it comes my way. I call bullshit. If an EF5 tornado hits your house you're going to be crying and hoping your wife and kids aren't killed and you're going to be crying and depressed when everything you valued in life was completely destroyed in 10 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: I call bullshit. If an EF5 tornado hits your house you're going to be crying and hoping your wife and kids aren't killed and you're going to be crying and depressed when everything you valued in life was completely destroyed in 10 seconds. Not everyone can understand the dichotomy of a weather enthusiast. Both things can be true...Most if not all here don't want the bad things to happen you just mentioned. But if you are a weather enthusiast...you can't help but be fascinated by extreme weather. There's a certain way it captures the imagination: and if there's potential to witness it...No matter how much you don't want anybody to get hurt, part of ya is still fascinated regardless. Now, you may not feel that dichotomy in your own weather enthusiasm, but others do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Not everyone can understand the dichotomy of a weather emthusiast. Both things can be true...Most if not all here don't want the bad things to happen you just mentioned. But if you are a weather enthusiast...you can't help but be fascinated by extreme weather. There's a certain way it captures the imagination: and if there's potential to witness it...No matter how much you don't want anybody to get hurt, part of ya is still fascinated regardless. Now, you may not feel that dichotomy in your own weather enthusiasm, but others do. I don't disagree. I come from the Midwest where tornadoes destroy whole communities and we practice monthly tornado drills in elementary school. But don't tell me that when an EF5 is bearing down on your house you're gonna be tracking it via radarscope or something. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, IronTy said: I call bullshit. If an EF5 tornado hits your house you're going to be crying and hoping your wife and kids aren't killed and you're going to be crying and depressed when everything you valued in life was completely destroyed in 10 seconds. I think you missed the point of my post entirely. Which is fine - perhaps I was not clear enough. We are (I assume) weather enthusiasts. I know some folks here are here for just snow and that's all. But how interesting is it to track Sunny, 75 degree weather...if I'm being honest that's not being a "weather enthusiast" I personally am fascinated by ALL weather (not just snow). Synoptic wind events, severe storms, snow storms, hurricanes, the works. I know I rarely say this (all in jest @Maestrobjwa) but this is a time when I totally think @Maestrobjwa hit the nail on the head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Just now, IronTy said: I don't disagree. I come from the Midwest where tornadoes destroy whole communities and we practice monthly tornado drills in elementary school. But sell me that when an EF5 is bearing down on your house you're gonna be tracking it via radarscope or something. Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk Actually I would 100% be doing this. For two reasons - to be real-time tracking the danger that is about to impact me (I enjoy elements of emergency management as well). I volunteer with MC Park Police here, interned in the past with MoCo Police and considered doing EM as my major at one point. The 2nd reason would be my interest in weather. I'd have Radarscope in my hand while my house was scraped off the face of the Earth. At that point, what can I do to prevent it? Nothing? If I've gotten my family to shelter and have tried my best to protect them - nature is going to be nature. Yes it can be tragic - but without people interested in the science and awe of it - forecasts wouldn't be improving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 This is a discussion for banter, though. So I will shut up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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