Weather Will Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 WB 12Z EPS: many members bring significant rains this upcoming weekend. Goodness, the Commanders are awful!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 So, an offhand ranking of the severity of impacts of "I" named tropical systems in our area: 1. Isabel -- I think that gets the first ranking pretty much hands down. Then it gets harder. 2. Irene? 3. Ida (2021 version)? 4. Ivan? 5. Isaias? Could easily be ranked above Ivan but 40 tornadoes from the latter in Virginia is pretty impressive. Sure there are ones I'm missing/forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 IIRC, Ivan in 2004 has more tornadoes in this area than Isaias did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Isaias will only be a memory for us because a power fault set the asphalt on fire a mere few feet from my work truck and I had to break out the CO2 extinguisher after the power was cut even in the rain! Oh and a junk tree into a 13kV overhead dumping a phase down the road. Breezy rain. Nothing compared to Isabel or Irene. Isabel had some serious sustained winds, front door weatherstripping playing the kazoo all night long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 8:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said: IIRC, Ivan in 2004 has more tornadoes in this area than Isaias did. Expand Yeah I worded that poorly; Ivan spawned 40 tornadoes in VA. At least according to St. Wiki. Irene was every bit the storm Isabel was in my neck of the woods, as I recall. But I don't think its effects along the Bay, for instance, were like Isabel's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 8:41 PM, 09-10 analogy said: Yeah I worded that poorly; Ivan spawned 40 tornadoes in VA. At least according to St. Wiki. Irene was every bit the storm Isabel was in my neck of the woods, as I recall. But I don't think its effects along the Bay, for instance, were like Isabel's. Expand Same here. Not a fan of night time tropical. At least Sandy, well most of it, was during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Looks like most models give us some rain next weekend from the remnants. Not the death and destruction @Eskimo Joe was looking for though. I'll take a rainy day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 18Z GFS shifted eastward… and WB 18Z EURO shifted a little westward….honing in on the final track… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdatcher Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 8:19 PM, 09-10 analogy said: So, an offhand ranking of the severity of impacts of "I" named tropical systems in our area: 1. Isabel -- I think that gets the first ranking pretty much hands down. Then it gets harder. 2. Irene? 3. Ida (2021 version)? 4. Ivan? 5. Isaias? Could easily be ranked above Ivan but 40 tornadoes from the latter in Virginia is pretty impressive. Sure there are ones I'm missing/forgotten. Expand Isaias for Southern Maryland wavs very impactful from a rain standpoint. Also having center of a tropical storm ride route 4 from Leonardtown to Lusby was something we don't see that often 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 It seems like the shear will increase as he moves into the northern GOM which is good. Keep him from making landfall in central FL so the shear can weaken him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Ian is really blowing up on IR…seems to me the rapid intensification is underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Eye Ann is now a 1 and on its way to a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Thoughts on a dedicated Ian remnants thread for us? Overnight runs really slowed down the remnants and run it into a brick wall with another Canadian high coming south next weekend. Only the GGEM gets rain to us by Saturday now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Guess GFS is already warming up for our winter anguish…brutal rain cutoff on Ian remnants. WB 6Z GFS… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 10:53 AM, WxUSAF said: Thoughts on a dedicated Ian remnants thread for us? Overnight runs really slowed down the remnants and run it into a brick wall with another Canadian high coming south next weekend. Only the GGEM gets rain to us by Saturday now. Expand Classic Mid Atlantic fail. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 10:53 AM, Weather Will said: Guess GFS is already warming up for our winter anguish…brutal rain cutoff on Ian remnants. WB 6Z GFS… Expand BECS for Southern Maryland and flurries for the Mason-Dixon Line 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 A bunch of NWS offices including LWX are now doing two extra balloon launches per day for Ian forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 11:28 AM, nj2va said: A bunch of NWS offices including LWX are now doing two extra balloon launches per day for Ian forecasting. Expand Some are x4 daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 11:09 AM, Kmlwx said: BECS for Southern Maryland and flurries for the Mason-Dixon Line Expand I prefer to think of it as driving rain south of Fredericksburg, with puking snows on the northern end of the heaviest precip! On topic: Yay remnants! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 Camping trip planned for this Sunday in Apps, a bit south of Charlestown. Am definite watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 26, 2022 Share Posted September 26, 2022 On 9/26/2022 at 1:18 AM, nj2va said: It seems like the shear will increase as he moves into the northern GOM which is good. Keep him from making landfall in central FL so the shear can weaken him. Expand Not only the shear, but the dry air just surrounds Ian once it gets partway into the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27, 2022 Author Share Posted September 27, 2022 Ian became a major hurricane this morning. Updated verification. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (6)Hurricanes: 6 (4)Major Hurricanes: 4 (2) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/20/2022 at 7:23 PM, MN Transplant said: Euro has the mythical Tampa landfall Expand 7 days ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 1:49 PM, MN Transplant said: 7 days ago Expand But if it doesn't make landfall there, was there ever even a hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/25/2022 at 2:47 PM, nw baltimore wx said: That’s why I am wondering about the hwrf. It’s also a western track. Personally, I would be more concerned if I lived in the panhandle rather than along the west coast of Florida. Expand This post aged well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Euro also did have a much further S hit days ago too. Only within the last 2-3 days did it settle on a Tampa area hit. Its not perfect but it has done a decent job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The 06z HWRF is clearly the worst case scenario with the water funneling up Tampa Bay. But it seems to be on the west side of guidance now. Anything that leaves Tampa on the north side of landfall (Sarasota, Venice) would avert a much larger disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 2:33 PM, nw baltimore wx said: This post aged well. Expand It's aged just as well as you. ::duck:: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Time sensitive, but Naples pier getting rocked. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/naples/?cam=naplespier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 On 9/28/2022 at 4:32 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Time sensitive, but Naples pier getting rocked. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/naples/?cam=naplespier Expand Still an accurate post 4 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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