2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think you missed the point of my post entirely. Which is fine - perhaps I was not clear enough. We are (I assume) weather enthusiasts. I know some folks here are here for just snow and that's all. But how interesting is it to track Sunny, 75 degree weather...if I'm being honest that's not being a "weather enthusiast"
I personally am fascinated by ALL weather (not just snow). Synoptic wind events, severe storms, snow storms, hurricanes, the works. 
I know I rarely say this (all in jest [mention=11742]Maestrobjwa[/mention]) but this is a time when I totally think [mention=11742]Maestrobjwa[/mention] hit the nail on the head. 

I don't have any problem, I lust for a 36" snowstorm like anybody else here. But real severe weather, tornadoes, derechos, hurricanes have the capability to really destroy lives. Maybe I'm paying karma too much credit but I don't want to deal with that shit again.

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[Kmlwx]

Just now, IronTy said:

I don't have any problem, I list for a 36" snowstorm like anybody else here. But real severe weather, tornadoes, derechos, hurricanes have the capability to really destroy lives. Maybe I'm paying karma too much credit but I don't want to deal with that shit again.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

Last post before I go back to lurk mode - 

A 4" snowstorm can cause a person to have a heart attack and die. That's tragic too...I know not on the scale of hundreds of thousands impacted - but literally EVERY type of weather (high heat included of course) can cause tragedy. 

Are we going to now crack down on @Eskimo Joe for saying "Go big or go home" when it comes to heat waves? 

I personally don't that that me being interested in tracking weather is going to cause a hurricane to magically swerve and kill people. But that's just me. Without interest in Earth science/weather/people like weather enthusiasts - we wouldn't be where we are today in terms of advancing forecast capabilities. 

Some of the best meteorology folks out there were brought into the profession/hobby by deadly weather events. 

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Actually I would 100% be doing this. For two reasons - to be real-time tracking the danger that is about to impact me (I enjoy elements of emergency management as well). I volunteer with MC Park Police here, interned in the past with MoCo Police and considered doing EM as my major at one point. The 2nd reason would be my interest in weather. 

I'd have Radarscope in my hand while my house was scraped off the face of the Earth. At that point, what can I do to prevent it? Nothing? If I've gotten my family to shelter and have tried my best to protect them - nature is going to be nature. Yes it can be tragic - but without people interested in the science and awe of it - forecasts wouldn't be improving. 

I don't disagree. .but hoping for that sort of thing?  That was the whole point of my post. It's so scary and life changing.  

[Weather Will]

I am hoping for remnants to give us a steady day of rain, no widespread damage.

I don’t wish a 100 mph plus storm with widespread destruction and flooding on  anyone although I have to admit a blizzard this winter is fine with me….

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z TS Euro probs.  

[IronTy]

JB more and more confident of the Florida hit.  Coming in just north of Tampa would be devastating.  I bust on JB but the dude does love to sniff out hurricanes.  Fwiw.  

[WxWatcher007]

Awkward time to jump in lol but...

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from the coastline of Cape Breton Island. Originally, I was planning to be on the east coast of Cape Breton in Louisbourg, but the hotel fell through and I don't blame them from closing up shop. Even with extensive research, we're still missing a critical piece here with clear expectations on surge. 

As a result, I am on the west coast in Port Hood very close to the center track of Fiona, and under a hurricane watch. The elevation here makes potential surge irrelevant, and depending on the angle of approach, winds could be high end.  

Folks up here are taking this one seriously. This has the potential to be an all-time event in the region, with guidance consistently forecasting pressure records getting shattered. 

As is usually the case for the big dogs, @MillvilleWx is providing remote support and can provide an update on the site if I lose signal, which is already a little spotty. 

[IronTy]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Awkward time to jump in lol but...

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from the coastline of Cape Breton Island. Originally, I was planning to be on the east coast of Cape Breton in Louisbourg, but the hotel fell through and I don't blame them from closing up shop. Even with extensive research, we're still missing a critical piece here with clear expectations on surge. 

As a result, I am on the west coast in Port Hood very close to the center track of Fiona, and under a hurricane watch. The elevation here makes potential surge irrelevant, and depending on the angle of approach, winds could be high end.  

Folks up here are taking this one seriously. This has the potential to be an all-time event in the region, with guidance consistently forecasting pressure records getting shattered. 

As is usually the case for the big dogs, @MillvilleWx is providing remote support and can provide an update on the site if I lose signal, which is already a little spotty. 

Good luck.  jB said the same thing, an historic storm.  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Good luck.  jB said the same thing, an historic storm.  

Thanks. For this one I am hoping I can get a nice data set of the pressure fall. 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks. For this one I am hoping I can get a nice data set of the pressure fall. 

I should add, that's a gorgeous place to be riding things out.  

 

Keep an eye out for Jim Cantore.  

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

I call bullshit.  If an EF5 tornado hits your house you're going to be crying and hoping your wife and kids aren't killed and you're going to be crying and depressed when everything you valued in life was completely destroyed in 10 seconds.

I value my life.. for everything else I'll be calling State Farm and buying new shit.. Then again, I have a better chance of winning the $900M powerball than getting hit by an F5, no matter how much I "hope"

[IronTy]

Just now, Yeoman said:

Just like "hoping" to win the $900 million powerball never works, nor does it for weather. So who cares?

Really boss?   Winning the $900MM Powerball compared to losing your family and livelihood?   I give up.  Hopefully you never have to deal with the reality of losing everything in a few seconds due to weather.  You sound really inexperienced in life, like when I was in my 20s and was convinced that everything bad that happened to somebody else was because of their lack of bootstraps.  

[Yeoman]

12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Really boss?   Winning the $900MM Powerball compared to losing your family and livelihood?   I give up.  Hopefully you never have to deal with the reality of losing everything in a few seconds due to weather.  You sound really inexperienced in life, like when I was in my 20s and was convinced that everything bad that happened to somebody else was because of their lack of bootstraps.  

Not too bright, are you? My point was hoping for anything doesn't make it reality, and is meaningless as to what might actually happen.

[IronTy]

Not too bright, are you? My point was hoping for anything doesn't make it reality, and is meaningless as to what might actually happen.

Cool, you win. Best of luck.

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[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an nhc cone include Greenland!!!

[Terpeast]

35 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen an nhc cone include Greenland!!!

Yeah I saw that! Is that going to be a first if it actually pans out?

[jewell2188]

Looks like a Florida impact and out to sea.

[yoda]

2 hours ago, jewell2188 said:

Looks like a Florida impact and out to sea.

Uh that would be a no on the 00z model suite tonight

[Weather Will]

We have TD 9…excerpt NHC discussion 5 am

The current motion right now is estimated to be off to the 
west-northwest at 290/12 kt. In the short-term, the depression is 
forecast to bend back more westward as a narrow east-to-west 
oriented mid-level ridge builds in behind the weakness left behind 
from Fiona. The current eastward displaced convection may also tug 
the broad center in that direction as well. However, after 48 hours, 
this ridge will start to decay as a longwave deep-layer trough over 
the eastern United States begins to amplify southward. This synoptic 
evolution should then allow the cyclone to begin gaining latitude, 
though the exact timing at which this occurs could be somewhat 
related to the vertical depth of the cyclone and how it interacts 
with a weak upper-level trough expected to be over the far western 
Caribbean in the day 3-4 time-frame. The model guidance early on is 
in fairly good agreement, but larger across-track spread begins to 
take shape by 48 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean located 
further south and west, and with the ECMWF and its ensemble mean 
located further north and east. The initial track forecast has 
decided to split the difference between these two model suites, and 
lies fairly close to the consensus aids TVCN and HCCA. There is 
still a healthy amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at the 
day 4-5 timeframe. 

[H2O]

Still looks like poo. Wouldn’t be surprised it adjusts west when it gets less sheared

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[MN Transplant]

12z GFS is interesting.  Gets into the Gulf with a path over the tip of Cuba, but since it misses the trough that the Euro has it just sits and slowly loses intensity off of Tampa.

[WxWatcher007]

I had to relocate once more, but only about a mile. My second option fell though after the owner decided to shut down. It's cloudy and breezy with light rain from the front. I'll be using my Kestrel and basic barometer to document the pressure fall. 

In a quick drive around we see a gas line at the local station and folks hunkering down by taking furniture inside and getting last minute supplies. Folks are taking this one seriously.

 

Now's the hard part. Waiting. Fiona looks good on satellite, but now we have to see what the final approach and track look like. I think I'm in a good spot still, as a slightly further east track would probably allow for a better wind vector here, and a center pass is obviously a center pass. 

I am walking distance from the coast. 

[toolsheds]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I had to relocate once more, but only about a mile. My second option fell though after the owner decided to shut down. It's cloudy and breezy with light rain from the front. I'll be using my Kestrel and basic barometer to document the pressure fall. 

In a quick drive around we see a gas line at the local station and folks hunkering down by taking furniture inside and getting last minute supplies. Folks are taking this one seriously.

 

Now's the hard part. Waiting. Fiona looks good on satellite, but now we have to see what the final approach and track look like. I think I'm in a good spot still, as a slightly further east track would probably allow for a better wind vector here, and a center pass is obviously a center pass. 

I am walking distance from the coast. 

Be Safe!

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I had to relocate once more, but only about a mile. My second option fell though after the owner decided to shut down. It's cloudy and breezy with light rain from the front. I'll be using my Kestrel and basic barometer to document the pressure fall. 

In a quick drive around we see a gas line at the local station and folks hunkering down by taking furniture inside and getting last minute supplies. Folks are taking this one seriously.

 

Now's the hard part. Waiting. Fiona looks good on satellite, but now we have to see what the final approach and track look like. I think I'm in a good spot still, as a slightly further east track would probably allow for a better wind vector here, and a center pass is obviously a center pass. 

I am walking distance from the coast. 

Awesome! Report when/however you can, but most importantly stay safe!

[MN Transplant]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I had to relocate once more, but only about a mile. My second option fell though after the owner decided to shut down. It's cloudy and breezy with light rain from the front. I'll be using my Kestrel and basic barometer to document the pressure fall. 

In a quick drive around we see a gas line at the local station and folks hunkering down by taking furniture inside and getting last minute supplies. Folks are taking this one seriously.

Now's the hard part. Waiting. Fiona looks good on satellite, but now we have to see what the final approach and track look like. I think I'm in a good spot still, as a slightly further east track would probably allow for a better wind vector here, and a center pass is obviously a center pass. 

I am walking distance from the coast. 

 

Any worries about the causeway shutting down?  I see that Josh is hanging back on the "mainland".

[H2O]

34 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

12z GFS is interesting.  Gets into the Gulf with a path over the tip of Cuba, but since it misses the trough that the Euro has it just sits and slowly loses intensity off of Tampa.

 GFS seems to be playing catch up to the Euro for this one.  If its correct for being the western track I'd be surprised.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Any worries about the causeway shutting down?  I see that Josh is hanging back on the "mainland".

Yeah, it's a gamble being on the island. Driving over it yesterday I think it'll be ok as long as it doesn't get crushed by waves. I'm guessing Josh is down by Canso?

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, it's a gamble being on the island. Driving over it yesterday I think it'll be ok as long as it doesn't get crushed by waves. I'm guessing Josh is down by Canso?

He posted a pic at Guysborough.  I guess he could get to Canso, the highway is paved the entire way.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

He posted a pic at Guysborough.  I guess he could get to Canso, the highway is paved the entire way.

Nice. I didn't expect him to be that far west. If he cashes in there with a center pass I should be a lock up here. Famous last words.