2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

Awesome stuff @WxWatcher007

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z control and 6Z GEFS for Labor Day weekend period.

[mappy]

Have a cousin getting married in VA Beach labor weekend. We leave for our South Carolina beach trip 9/10. Def keeping an eye on the tropics 

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z control and 6Z GEFS for Labor Day weekend period.

That would make me homicidal. Literally 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That would make me homicidal. Literally 

Too much rain?

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Too much rain?

Lol yes. And in Labor Day weekend no less

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Too much rain?

Of course that far away I might be outside the shield. There’s awesome weather just outside that heavy rain cutoff. 

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/21/2022 at 7:12 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 

1. Current Atlantic Lemon
This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic.  

2. Follow up Atlantic Wave
A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now.  

3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave
There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend.  

4. Offshore East Coast Low
This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying. 

Adding to this. 

-The lemon looks meh, but that was expected at this point.

-Follow up wave is a question mark. Guidance has backed off a bit for now at least. Let’s see what happens when it comes off Africa.

-Still a light ensemble signal for a weak low, now in the BOC.

-Meh for #4 but the signal is still there. More on operational guidance though so not expecting much.

-I’ll add a new area

5. Disturbance near Antilles

The ICON, which I don’t look at for tropical, was apparently trying to pick up on a disturbance breaking out of the monsoon trough near the coast of South America, and now the GFS (and GEFS/EPS) are flirting with something breaking away and into the Caribbean. Unlike the rest of the tropical Atlantic, this environment is warmer, more moist, and has less shear (for now at least). Problem is this is the monsoon trough, which can be hard to break out of, and it’s so low spin/vorticity May be tough. Might be worth a casual eye, especially if the ensembles start to pick up on it more.

At this point though, these are little more than straw grasping. We don’t have great signals for any. Yet. An August shutout is still unlikely imo but is a legitimate possibility.

[George BM]

 

[WxWatcher007]

The Antilles critter is moving up my list, chiefly because it’s already near 60W and doesn’t have to deal with the eastern Atlantic graveyard.

[MN Transplant]

The last couple of runs of the GFS are aggressive with the wave coming up on the Windwards. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The last couple of runs of the GFS are aggressive with the wave coming up on the Windwards. 

Euro pretty aggressive too today, though I’ve sung this song before.

[weatherCCB]

You’ve done a great analysis on the basin

its going to wake up, and when it does watch out.

Ive been tracking hurricanes since  the early 80’s and have seen many years start slow. Quite a few years with double digit storms in September.  I think your forecast will verify close to reality.

keep up  the good and very informative work . Much appreciated by many on this board.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS.

[WxWatcher007]

Let's take an objective look around the Atlantic basin on this Thursday morning. In my analysis, I will broadly look at four areas: The Gulf, the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic. 

 

The Gulf
Not much is happening here, and not much is expected. I did previously highlight this area for possible BOC development this weekend, and while the guidance has continued to have a weak ensemble signal for development in association with a weak wave that is currently draped across the Yucatan, at least right now, nothing is imminent. 

 

Western Atlantic
The feature that stands out here is an upper trough that has been persistent the last few days in the Atlantic. There's not much of a chance of development, despite a very weak ensemble signal for a quick spin up.

Why?

Despite deep convection firing each morning, it is disorganized. Moreover, it hasn't made much of an attempt to organize during the convectively active periods. For an upper trough to work toward the surface you need time and a non-hostile environment. It has had time, but the lethal combination of dry air and shear will likely keep this feature from developing. 

The two images above lead to the more "active" portions of the basin, where we have vigorous waves that may struggle to find windows for development, but have a shot to break our historic named storm drought nonetheless. 

Caribbean
The first takeaway, and has been the story of the season thus far, is that dry air is ever-present out in the Atlantic. To be clear, the basin is FAR better off now than it was a few weeks ago, but dry air has continued to kill vigorous waves. As you can see below, it has worked its way into the eastern Caribbean while the central and western portions of the sea have much more moisture.

This is important because our first lemon, one I have been tracking closely since a cold push from South America tilted part of the monsoon trough into an upright wave, has been trying to fight off dry air and may have a shot to develop in the Caribbean in a few days if it is able to avoid suffocation by the dry air. Shear is still around, but isn't as bad. 

As you saw in the shear image above, the western and central Caribbean are open for business, if a legitimate disturbance can get there. Guidance is clear on a favorable environment persisting. 

Enter our wave, which looks a little more robust this morning. It should look robust given the time of day. Let's see if it is able to keep dry air out today. That will be hard. 

 

 

One final note on this wave. Despite the operational GFS and Euro not developing this, there are meaningful signals for some development once this gets to the central and western Caribbean. The NHC highlights it in their outlook, and if you look at the broader environment, it does look conducive for development if dry air doesn't kill it first.

I said about a week ago that we needed to look past 60W for a development chance, and that still looks to be the case.

I still believe this is one to watch, as it has so far been successful in standing upright and breaking away from the monsoon trough as a well-defined wave, as the NHC described it at 8am this morning. 

Tropical Atlantic
Finally, we turn the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, where waves have gone to die all season due to that lethal combination of dry, stable air and shear from TUTTs created by repeated wave breaking. Both look to be in the way right now out there, but we are getting stronger waves in this part of the Atlantic as we approach the climatological peak and are receiving an assist from a favorable CCKW and MJO.

While it isn't quite the case since we still have mid to late September for CVs, it feels like now or never for some of these waves to fight back against a hostile Atlantic. 

Enter our latest wave. 

The image above has lat/lon and the SST distribution as an overlay to assist the reader.

The first thing I notice is a continued robust monsoon trough between 5 and 10 deg N. That could serve as a focal point for development in the MDR, though the trough itself doesn't become a TC. 

The second thing I notice is our wave to the north, and you can clearly see it spin nicely off the coast of Africa. It has good convection early, and is running into a primed ribbon of warm SSTs.

However, the third thing I see is also clear. More dry and likely stable air.

That said, our dead Invest did prove to be a sacrificial wave, moistening the environment to provide this new wave with a greater chance of developing a moisture envelope that not only helps future waves, but can protect itself down the road as it tries to develop, and it should try.

It's actually pretty bad that we have to say the dry air isn't as dry so there's a chance, but that's the basin we have this year. 

 

Development should be slow for this one, and keep in mind it's just coming off Africa so these things can take time to really spin up, but overall the signal on the GEFS and EPS are the strongest yet for activity in the tropical Atlantic.

Overall
What gives me confidence that early September will be active, even if we do not receive a named storm in August (and it will be close), is that the wave train that is clearly underway has helped to moisten the tropical Atlantic. With stronger and more frequent waves heading into September, I do think the odds will increase for an above (climatological) average period. 

That's a bold (and potentially idiotic) statement, because dry/stable air may continue to be an issue if wave breaking persists. 

Let's take a look at the latest ensembles. 

Things have been extraordinarily quiet. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard that has precluded development even west of 60W, but things are changing, albeit slowly. 

It's hard for me to get excited about anything today with so much dry and stable air still prevalent in the basin, but objectively, the pattern has been evolving toward a more favorable background state.

This is not a "good conditions are 10 days away, still" post. 

I do think that the two NHC lemons have a meaningful shot of development in the 5-7 day range, and if we're able to open up the tropical Atlantic for development beyond that, it will ripple throughout the basin as it should allow waves to get further across toward more favorable conditions in the Gulf and western Atlantic in mid-September. 

Watch for wave breaking and TUTTs. If we see that continue, there will be a lid on development. If those begin to fade in early September, we're off and running. 

[WxWatcher007]

Disregard the crap over Africa lol, but with the guidance starting to converge on something developing in the MDR, odds are likely going up that we have something real in the next 5 days. 

GFS continues to go way too wild with the Caribbean feature, but I still think that's one to watch too. 

[yoda]

I'm gathering that the 12z Euro would be a SE coast threat after 240

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO and 6z GFS both have a hurricane in the western Atlantic around Labor Day.

[Eskimo Joe]

Labor Day storm potential reeks of fish.

[mappy]

One gfs run had a tropical storm off the SC coast on my first day of vacation, lol. Thankfully it’s disappeared, for now. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Labor Day storm potential reeks of fish.

If it even develops…

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO (storm heading out to sea)…

[WxWatcher007]

From zero to two invests!  

[yoda]

46 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From zero to two invests!  

This must be INVESTigated!

I'll see myself out now

[Rhino16]

I really like how that storm in the pacific on the 12z gfs goes perfectly up the Gulf of California for a little bit.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO has a hurricane lurking east of the Bahamas. Not moving much but not heading out to sea at the end of this run.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS…. At this point, we can say likelihood increasing that there will be a tropical system to track in the western Atlantic during the week of the 4th… this run of GFS has it doing a loop da loop toward the coast, and then running NNE inland up toward the DMV.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS