2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

98L would have easily become tropical with just 12 hours more over water, but alas, it’s inland and looking pretty good.

[mattie g]

Hints of a hurricane are showing up in long-range forecast models, but experts call it a 'fantasy storm'

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/weather/atlantic-hurricane-fantasy-forecast-wxn/

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 8/16/2022 at 7:32 AM, mattie g said:

Hints of a hurricane are showing up in long-range forecast models, but experts call it a 'fantasy storm'

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/weather/atlantic-hurricane-fantasy-forecast-wxn/

The whole season has been a fantasy

[WinterWxLuvr]

How we lookin?

 

[SnowenOutThere]

15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How we lookin?

 

I'll counter your imagine with this. It shows how the basin is becoming more active due to improving conditions. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

38 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'll counter your imagine with this. It shows how the basin is becoming more active due to improving conditions. 

I’ll counter that … it’s a fantasy image of how the basin could possibly (as in possible like 10 day snowstorms) become more active.

[Interstate]

What was the prediction from the NHC for named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for the year?

[WxWatcher007]

We’re getting there. Hyperactive looks off the table but solidly above average looks feasible as long as we can get some instability in the tropical MDR.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll counter that … it’s a fantasy image of how the basin could possibly (as in possible like 10 day snowstorms) become more active.

The gfs has gone from no storms through the 15 day runtime to now showing multiple storms semi consistently within 10ish days. So while the storms are fantasy it still shows a pattern change to a more favorable environment for storms. It is showing the possibility for a reason. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The gfs has gone from no storms through the 15 day runtime to now showing multiple storms semi consistently within 10ish days. So while the storms are fantasy it still shows a pattern change to a more favorable environment for storms. It is showing the possibility for a reason. 

Ok. We can see how it plays out. Time will tell.

[Weather Will]

Good Washington Post article by Matthew Cappucci.
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/17/hurricane-season-tropical-atlantic/

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

How’s that GFS lookin? 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How’s that GFS lookin? 

No comment 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty. 

Gotta keep that heat in the tropics to feed the snowcanes come Jan and Feb.  Foe early, friend later.  I can dream.  

[Eskimo Joe]

22 hours ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Crucify me, but I’m not rooting for tropical. Last two low seasons for the Atlantic were excellent snowfall years (2009 and 2014). Let’s keep that basin empty. 

I'm good with that.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm good with that.

We all know the more likely option is that we just go wall-to-wall boring weather from now through next spring. 

[Kmlwx]

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS in fantasy range at Day 16, but this is the time of year and with MJO support maybe something to track by next weekend in the Central Atlantic. 2nd picture WB 0Z Euro EPS.

[yoda]

Looks like if it went out 2 more days on the 12z GFS we'd get a nice tropical visitor 

Ofc it's weenie land but still 

[yoda]

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s August 20. Will start writing my peak period outlook shortly. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS still says watch Labor Day weekend period…

[yoda]

Wonder if that s/w in MI would cause a recurve at the last minute at 384... yes I know it's fantasy land, but it's pretty much the only interesting thing on the models right now 

[WxWatcher007]

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. 

Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 4

Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. 

At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140.

Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 

1. ENSO
This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. 

Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

2. West African Monsoon
No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. 

Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 

3. Wind Shear
For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear.

As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. 




With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk.

I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 

4. SST Anomalies/OHC
Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. 

Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. 

We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak.

With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. 

\

Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 

5. CCKW/MJO
Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. 

With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak?

SAL & Stability
The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic.

To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR.

There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. 

This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential.  

This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic.

Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future.

In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. 

 

Overall
With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean.  

Final Note--Landfall Odds
The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. 

We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Dude. Nice discussion!

[poolz1]

Tropical threads are great.  Especially with write-ups like that!  Never really gets cantankerous in here, just level headed discussion on potential or lack thereof. Why does snow make people weird? 

[StormchaserChuck!]

La Nina's about to get a big s"lice".

[George BM]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

WxWatcher007 2022 Atlantic Peak Season Forecast

I will start out my fourth annual forecast by saying I've been wrong a lot this season. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has thrown wrenches that have blunted potential for active periods a few times already, putting a lid on any meaningful activity from the end of July into what is only now the start of the climatological peak. 

Each year on August 20, the late Dr. William Gray and his team would ring a bell, symbolizing the start of peak season. On this August 20, while we're starting to see the basin wake up, as of today, we still have not had a named storm in the basin since Colin. What does the August 20 - October 20 period hold? Here's my forecast. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 4

Over the past four seasons, I've done very well with my forecasts. I view being within +/- 1 as a success, with points off the greater the error. I believe I earned a B+ in 2019, A or A- in 2020, and a disappointing C in the 2021 forecast. 

At the start of this Atlantic season, I went with a prediction of 21/10/5 overall. The historical average is 14/7/3. With this peak season forecast I am bringing that overall prediction down. I see a total of 16/7/4 for the season, with ACE above normal but under 140.

Let's look at why. First, the favorable factors. 

1. ENSO
This is a third-year Nina, and that has mixed signals in the basin. As @GaWx has pointed out, third year Ninas, while a relatively smaller sample size, have had a clear signal of being quieter than their counterpart years. This Nina has not budged much, and it is expected to remain in place through the peak of the season. The most recent ONI value from the CPC is -0.9C, solidly into Nina territory. For the entirety of 2022, the ONI has been between -0.9C and -1.1C. 

Of course, every ENSO event is different, and intensity/location matters a lot. Given what I project (and I will admit I am not as good with the intensity/location stuff) and what I've seen so far, the fundamental atmospheric response in the Atlantic during the peak should reflect a "typical" Nina with reduced wind shear and enhanced convective activity as a result. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

2. West African Monsoon
No need to belabor this point. It still looks good and should be able to provide strong AEWs (African Easterly Waves) that despite the very quiet period have still rolled off Africa even before the traditional start of CV season. 

Note this is an absolute plot, not an anomaly. I'll get to the caveat here later in the post. 

3. Wind Shear
For the most part, shear hasn't been an issue in the basin, but there have been wave breaking periods where the tropical Atlantic (MDR) has seen sharp rises in shear.

As a result of a Nina entering peak, we usually see wind shear levels that are relatively low across the basin. I think that happens this year and we are seeing such on the long range ensemble guidance. 




With wave breaking, we've seen some pretty awfully timed TUTTs in the basin that have also helped to stifle activity, but as is usually the case, the peak of the season reduces this risk.

I think basin wide wind shear is unlikely to become a net negative for the peak, and the ensemble guidance has a wholesale pattern change that reduces shear in the tropical Atlantic as we approach September. I believe this is starting to be reflected in the operational guidance, which are attempting to kick off CV season with development. 

4. SST Anomalies/OHC
Another item on the favorable side of the ledger is the continued presence of warm SST anomalies in the tropical and western Atlantic, and high OHC in the Caribbean, Gulf, US Southeast Coast, and even out to the Antilles. 

Image above courtesy of Philip Klotzbach of CSU. 

We haven't really had issues with SSTs in recent years, and this year is no different. While we've seen some seesawing of temperatures in the Atlantic MDR, after a fairly modest rise, temps shouldn't be an issue. With a cooler subtropical region, we should have the orientation necessary for strong activity during the peak.

With western Atlantic SST anomalies and OHC, activity should continue through the peak and into October provided the seedlings are there. 

\

Here is a 90 day CRW animation of SSTs in the basin. 

5. CCKW/MJO
Finally, although we can't see very far, we do also have another factor making an active peak more likely. It looks like we are getting favorable passage of a CCKW and the MJO looks to be on the side of Atlantic activity for at least the early part of September. 

With all these favorable factors, however, why am I not more aggressive for the peak?

SAL & Stability
The greatest limiting factor for this season thus far has been dry air, and more importantly, the vast expanse of stability in the tropical Atlantic. I don't think this can be understated, and it continues to be a fly in the ointment in the tropical Atlantic.

To be clear, that doesn't mean we're going to get zero hurricanes and zero majors, but it means that there's serious potential that even with the presence of other favorable factors, a significant cap could be put on potential, especially in the MDR.

There has been some discussion on Twitter about these plots overselling the extent of stability in the basin, but even if these are off by half, it speaks to a major issue that's clearly not going to be easily overcome. 

This is really ugly. Some of the stability will almost certainly be mitigated by the climatological peak, AEWs making it further into the Atlantic and finding more favorable conditions in the western Atlantic/Caribbean, and more waves moistening the environment in the tropical Atlantic, but that's going to take time and strong AEWs off the development table as they become "sacrificial waves", thus reducing CV potential.  

This gif is my capture of images since 7/31, 7/31, 8/10, 8/15, 8/20 to be exact. The start of this period was when we saw a truly awful SAL outbreak across the Atlantic.

Things have gotten better--we now have corridors for waves that are low enough to develop in the MDR, but I don't think anyone can look at this and objectively say that dry air and stability is going to dramatically turn around in the near future.

In fact, even with the active WAM, the ensembles still show potential issues lurking in the eastern Atlantic into early September. What happens after? I think things continue to improve, but it may be slow. You don't need to have a super wet environment to be active, but given where the MDR is right now with stability, we need change to maximize potential. 

 

Overall
With each of these factors at play, I anticipate an active peak, with at least one named storm by the end of this month, an active September (especially early) and an active late September into the first 2/3 of October. I do think that the time it'll take to destabilize the eastern MDR will limit potential for high ACE, long track CV hurricanes, and for marginal waves to develop, but I also believe this will be mitigated by favorable conditions for hurricane development and perhaps a couple major hurricanes taking shape in the homebrew region of the western Atlantic and western Caribbean.  

Final Note--Landfall Odds
The past two years have seen extremely active landfall conditions for the US, especially in the Gulf. With higher activity comes a greater statistical chance of a US landfall, and I do believe we have a third consecutive year with a major hurricane landfall in the continental United States. If I had to take a stab in the dark, I'd place the eastern Gulf coast and Carolinas at the greatest risk in September and October, with one broader East Coast threat. 

We'll see what happens. Happy tracking. 

Thank you Showmethetropical! 

[WxWatcher007]

Currently, I am watching four areas over the next ten days. Not all will develop, but they seem worth a casual eye. 

1. Current Atlantic Lemon
This lead wave crossed into the Atlantic this weekend, and while it isn't terribly active convectively, it has a nice moisture envelope that could serve it well as it plows through a SAL plume in the central Atlantic. Any development of this one IMO would happen after about 60W, the Antilles vicinity. The guidance has a weak signal for development, in large part because of the uncertainty of the environment in the western Atlantic.  

2. Follow up Atlantic Wave
A second robust wave is expected to leave the African coast in 5-7 days and at least right now, it looks like it'll have a lot going for it with regard to environment. First, it's likely to come off the coast further south, into a better moisture and SST environment. Second, it'll be trailing the first wave closely enough where SAL shouldn't (famous last words) be as much of an issue. Third, it'll be coming off as the MJO amplifies and CCKW passes, which should enhance convection. This one has potential to be a long tracker, but it's just potential for now.  

3. Caribbean/Gulf Wave
There's a light but consistent signal on the ensembles that a wave in the Caribbean will traverse into either the Gulf or BOC next weekend.  

4. Offshore East Coast Low
This one wouldn't be a threat to land based on current guidance, but there's a consistent signal on the Euro/GFS operational guidance that a wave of low pressure develops either off the East Coast or in the Central Atlantic the last few days of August before heading further out to sea and intensifying.