2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

CSU taking ‘em down a bit

 

[mattie g]

Would be nice to see what their initial call was. I'm sure it's easy enough to find, but when showing a graphic like this it's best to not just tell the reader that there were changes, but actually to show what the changes were.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

Would be nice to see what their initial call was. I'm sure it's easy enough to find, but when showing a graphic like this it's best to not just tell the reader that there were changes, but actually to show what the changes were.

 

[WxWatcher007]

Not there yet, but the basin is starting to look better and the guidance is hinting subtly at some activity as we approach mid month.

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 8/4/2022 at 3:24 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

CSU taking ‘em down a bit

 

It better pick up soon lol

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It better pick up soon lol

It will. I think.  

[WxWatcher007]

…annnnd we’re back.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for some gradual development of this system while it 
moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic 
during the early to middle part of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

 

[Rhino16]

Upped to 30% through 5 days as of the 2PM update.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

…annnnd we’re back.

After the way 2017 went from nothing to literally flipping a switch after the solar eclipse...I take nothing for granted, lol

[Rhino16]

Now we have an orange! Question though: at what strength does shear become an issue for storms? It looks like there’s a lot of it, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up for awhile. (Correct me if I’m wrong)

[WxWatcher007]

58 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Now we have an orange! Question though: at what strength does shear become an issue for storms? It looks like there’s a lot of it, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to let up for awhile. (Correct me if I’m wrong)

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check.

Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. 

Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. 

(image time sensitive) 

I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. 

(Image time sensitive)

It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately. 

[Rhino16]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

When it comes to shear, the intensity and direction can matter a lot. For most systems, light shear can be overcome, but moderate to high shear can keep an Invest from developing and hold even well developed systems in check.

Sometimes, the direction of shear can actually help the low ventilate and strengthen. A great recent example of this was Isaias, which muddled along in the western Atlantic and was first sheared by a with southwesterly shear until it started changing its direction to the NNE, which allowed for the shear to become a help rather than a hinderance. 

Here, while there is definitely shear around, it looks like the wave is going to come off Africa at a low enough latitude where shear shouldn't be too much of an issue early on. 

(image time sensitive) 

I think the bigger issues early on may be mid-level dry air and some residual instability and fast forward motion, with shear an issue by the time it gets to the Antilles. Our orange needs convection and a nice moisture envelope to develop the way the GFS tries to predict. 

(Image time sensitive)

It's a messy image, but note the central Atlantic near the islands. There's an upper low that imparts some significant westerly/SW shear on the low and it really tears it up. This far out though, those kind of placements really are hard to predict accurately. 

I appreciate the thorough explanation!

[WxWatcher007]

I said on July 31 that things were starting to look better as we approach mid-month, and today we are gradually seeing conditions improve. It's happening fastest in the western Atlantic and it's much slower in the eastern Atlantic. 

We're not quite at a broadly favorable environment yet, but the dead pattern from late July has ended in my estimation. 

First, we're starting to see the basin moisten. This is critical, both for allowing moisture and instability to build. Unlike a few weeks ago, we are seeing convective activity. There's still a lot of dry air in the central and eastern Atlantic, but there's just enough space for two robust waves, one of which has a chance to develop. 

Rather than look at the entire basin again, I just want to highlight three areas worth watching with a casual eye. 

1. Orange in the eastern MDR
This is the best chance of tropical genesis in the next 10 days. The NHC has designated a wave that left the coast of Africa yesterday with 40% odds to develop in the next five days. 

Again, we're looking at the wave closest to Africa here. Critically, there is a leading wave that is convectively active, helping to moisten the environment. Shear has relaxed in the region, SSTs are decent, and as a result the guidance has had a solid signal for TC genesis in the last few days on operational and ensemble guidance. 

The Euro operational has backed off a bit on development, but it looks like the GFS is leading right now with a more accurate depiction of the activity off Africa so far.

That has limited utility as we need to see if there's actual organization that can take place in the next couple of days, but for now, it's worth watching. 

I'd place odds of development at 50%. 

2. Atlantic Coast (next weekend) 
This one is a longer shot for development, but both operational and ensemble guidance has had a signal for a deep trough to come off the coast this weekend and spur the development of a low. If something could cutoff or pop further south near the Carolinas, there could be some subtropical development. This signal looks more baroclinic in nature, could be something to watch for fun if you're a weenie like me as we get closer to the weekend. 

I'd place odds of development at 15%. 

3. Gulf of Mexico (late week?)
Finally, there's not much of a signal here as the GFS tries to bring a small area of vorticity into the Gulf midweek. It goes over a maxima of OHC in the area, so if there's less shear than expected maybe something quick could spin up. Nothing worth taking seriously at the moment. 

I'd place odds of development at 5%. 

[WxUSAF]

I’m imagining the Alan Grant in Jurassic Park gif for when @WxWatcher007 looked at the 6z GFS

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m imagining the Alan Grant in Jurassic Park gif for when @WxWatcher007 looked at the 6z GFS

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m imagining the Alan Grant in Jurassic Park gif for when @WxWatcher007 looked at the 6z GFS

It woke me up, but I know that's one for the weenie folder and not the analysis folder.  

[WxWatcher007]

Amazing how everything that spins in the PAC is blowing up. Seven hurricanes out there so far lol. 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Amazing how everything that spins in the PAC is blowing up. Seven hurricanes out there so far lol. 

Pacific go brrrr

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

[WxWatcher007]

Oof. Might go 0/3.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is developing over the 
north-central Gulf of Mexico just offshore of southeastern 
Louisiana.  Development, if any, of this system is expected to be 
slow to occur during the next couple of days as it drifts 
west-southwestward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of 
the Texas coast through the weekend.  For more information about the 
potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your 
local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction 
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the 
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Roberts

[WxWatcher007]

Despite very low odds currently, the Gulf low has been designated Invest 98L.

[IronTy]

What's the impact if this hurricane season fails to materialize?  My understanding is that hurricanes are basically engines that transport heat from the tropics to the poles.  Without any hurricanes this year it seems like all that heat won't be transferred and will just sit in the tropical waters.  Eventually something has to give, right?

[Stormfly]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What's the impact if this hurricane season fails to materialize?  My understanding is that hurricanes are basically engines that transport heat from the tropics to the poles.  Without any hurricanes this year it seems like all that heat won't be transferred and will just sit in the tropical waters.  Eventually something has to give, right?

CAT5 blizzards?

[IronTy]

CAT5 blizzards?

Trust Short Pump to get all that action tho.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

CAT5 blizzards?

Just peed my pants a little.  

[AdamHLG]

We’re about to have a long stretch of boring aren’t we. Summer severe had its roar. Next up a late November nor’easter.

Probably time for another earthquake.



.

[WxWatcher007]

No long post because I'm moving lol but it's interesting how basically the two areas with lowest odds of development last Sunday are now the only game in town after 97L got smothered by tropical Atlantic stability. 

Still think whatever pops along the East Coast in a few days is non-tropical. 

Still low odds of development in the Gulf but at least there's a low. 

I know it looks rough out there on the guidance but the basin is gradually getting better. Not sure when we're going to start seeing a response on the guidance, especially with a favorable CCKW and MJO coming. 

[H2O]

This dominant NA pattern we’ve been in just totally ruined early tropical potential. If things get shaken up as shown then I bet swirly cloud storms will pop

[Stormfly]

12 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

We’re about to have a long stretch of boring aren’t we. Summer severe had its roar. Next up a late November nor’easter.

Probably time for another earthquake.



.

Pass on the quake, but last time that happened we had high impact tropical not a week later.  Pass on that too, 700k+ outages is too much!  Still getting over 07/12 a month later!