2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Very interesting day in the tropics. 96L on the SE coast could have been a TD with less land interaction, and Bonnie (below) is really cooking as it approaches landfall. 

[WxWatcher007]

96L along the SC coast is now producing TS wind gusts. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just 
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland 
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep 
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and 
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had 
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a 
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed 
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the 
northeast of Charleston.

Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.

Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue 
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear 
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening 
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared 
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, 
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast 
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western 
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

 

[WxWatcher007]

Watching tropical cyclone genesis is always so neat. 96L was persistent. 

Now let’s see what happens with Bonnie as it achieves the rare crossover. Although it has underperformed for most of its time in the Atlantic, it has overperformed in the last day. Look at this structure.

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[midatlanticweather]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah unless things pop along a front, I think we’re quiet for a few weeks. Get your sleep now.
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

While the Atlantic basin is quiet and should remain so as we wait for the large scale pattern to change in 2-3 weeks, it's time to watch our tried and true method for homebrew  : stalled fronts. 

The guidance has had a weak but consistent signal that a stalled front in the Gulf will be the focal point for an area of low pressure to develop along the northern Gulf coast. Overnight, both the operational GFS/Euro and their ensembles presented a growing signal for some disturbed weather with development potential. 

I'm a bit lukewarm on it right now, given proximity to land and potential for shear/dry air, but it's a little early to really get into details. It's something to watch with a casual eye. 

Why? The northern Gulf has some of the highest SST anomalies in the entire Atlantic, and the warmest SSTs, as is often the case. It's still impressive to see though, and heightens the chance that good convection that can organize gets going in that region.

One other thing to note--not necessarily for this potential system but rather the future--there is a sizable warm eddy that could become trouble down the road for a CV that gets to the Gulf. 

 

Finally, I'll just draw your attention to TCHP across the basin. The Caribbean is always loaded but off the SE coast and in the Gulf--prime homebrew  regions, the building warmth is on par with our recent well above average seasons. 

While the focal point along the front this time will be the Gulf, given the warmth and climo off the SE coast we shouldn't be surprised if we see potential jump to the SE coast in the next 10-15 days as we see fronts continue to make it south given the current upper level pattern.  

 

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure is expected to develop in the 
northern Gulf of Mexico from a decaying frontal boundary currently 
located over the southeastern United States. Any development of 
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts just 
offshore of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the middle 
to later part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rains 
will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf coastline from 
Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. For 
more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see 
products issued by your local National Weather Service Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation change through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[WxWatcher007]

12z Euro is quite bullish. It meanders a low off the northern Gulf, strengthens it to around 992mb and tracks it NE through the southeast. That would be interesting.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

Not worth much right now but the Euro is consistent in bringing whatever happens in the Gulf northeast. Could be a good rainmaker for some further up the coast? 

[WxWatcher007]

Yes

Yes 

and YES

 

[WxWatcher007]

The Gulf system underperformed, but that’s what happens when shear overpowers a favorable SST environment. I’m still expecting things to pick up in another two weeks. 

 

[Rhino16]

It’s kinda weird to me to see October slightly above August, but it makes sense now that I think about it.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10.

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10.

Is this like the 3" probably maps? 

[WxWatcher007]

20 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

It’s kinda weird to me to see October slightly above August, but it makes sense now that I think about it.

Yeah, there’s a secondary peak in the middle of October, while usually most of August is quiet. It’s not until around the 20th that things pick up in August, though I think we’re looking right at the start of the month this year. 

13 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO quiet through Day 10.

It’s coming. Probably very late July/early August.

[StormchaserChuck!]

What are the names. Tell me the names. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO still pretty quiet next 10 days.  Ensemble shows few members with low pressure off the SE coast at end first week of August.

[Stormfly]

I'll take a dud season for in exchange of some IKE in the form of an early Jan Nor-Easter getting buried aka Jan '96 redux!

[WxWatcher007]

Basin isn’t really ready for prime time yet, but we’re starting to see subtle seeds of potential activity. Around the end of July/first week of August.

[Kevin Reilly]

I am looking at the water vapor map over the past 4 hours and now the visible satellite looks like there could be a weak system in the eastern Turks and Caicos Islands.  Looks like it is right under a high-pressure system as all air is evacuating in all sectors.  Looks like a bit of southerly shear and a fair amount of dry air to its north and northwest, but it appears the dry air is lifting northeaster ward.   Guess this could be something to keep an eye on.

 

Pennsylvania Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

[WxWatcher007]

On 7/22/2022 at 6:45 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

I am looking at the water vapor map over the past 4 hours and now the visible satellite looks like there could be a weak system in the eastern Turks and Caicos Islands.  Looks like it is right under a high-pressure system as all air is evacuating in all sectors.  Looks like a bit of southerly shear and a fair amount of dry air to its north and northwest, but it appears the dry air is lifting northeaster ward.   Guess this could be something to keep an eye on.

 

Pennsylvania Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

Just a little too much shear and dry air right now. Really need the basin pattern to get a little more favorable. Just not there yet but it’s coming. You can tell by how the guidance is starting to get traceable waves across the Atlantic in about 7-10 days. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z tropics still look quiet and dusty the next 10 days.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah—very quiet. Thought we’d be heating up around now but that’s obviously wrong.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah—very quiet. Thought we’d be heating up around now but that’s obviously wrong.

This season is going to be a total dud.

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This season is going to be a total dud.

That should get things started

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That should get things started

I'll do whatever it takes to will a Cat 2 into Point Lookout

[WxWatcher007]

End of July Tropical Update

It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. 

It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why.

While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get.  

It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. 

The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. 

It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. 

Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. 

It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. 

It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high?

I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 

1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo 

There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. 

July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew  regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. 

Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 

2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable
Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. 

The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. 

First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin.   

second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. 

Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 

3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day

Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. 

Overall
I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual.

I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic. 

[WxWatcher007]

Finally some fantasy homebrew  on the GFS!