2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Preseason is here, and for the last half decade we've had action in the basin. The guidance, mainly the GFS, has been consistent in signaling the first potential development of the year in the western Caribbean before entering the Gulf, but I'm skeptical. 

That said, it's probably time to fire up the legacy thread. 

With a Nina present and likely through the summer, another active season is expected. 

Let's begin. 

[SnowenOutThere]

36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Preseason is here, and for the last half decade we've had action in the basin. The guidance, mainly the GFS, has been consistent in signaling the first potential development of the year in the western Caribbean before entering the Gulf, but I'm skeptical. 

That said, it's probably time to fire up the legacy thread. 

With a Nina present and likely through the summer, another active season is expected. 

Let's begin. 

Have you ever seen a model be as consistent as the gfs showing a storm in the gulf? It’s had one there since 330 hours out and has stayed locked in. It’s crazy. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Have you ever seen a model be as consistent as the gfs showing a storm in the gulf? It’s had one there since 330 hours out and has stayed locked in. It’s crazy. 

I think the gfs has become a good tropical model, and in some ways, better than the euro, but it can get too ahead of itself in tropical genesis this time of year in the western Caribbean. 

This graphic is dated since we’ve seen preseason activity every year basically since this but climo favors western Caribbean. If you don’t get activity squashed into the eastern pacific, as is usually the case this early when high pressure dominates the southeast. 

This far out, I’m not buying yet, but I have one eye on it. I’m probably at a 2/10 in terms of interest right now.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO 

[WxWatcher007]

An 18z GFS wouldn’t be shocking. Sloppy system that scoots northward and interacts with a trough to bring rain to the SE.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxWatcher007]

First lemon of the year. Well defined circulation as it comes onshore tonight.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. North Central Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of 
Mexico about 150 miles south of Pensacola, Florida.  This system is 
producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across portions 
of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and over the central and 
northern Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures remain high, and strong 
upper-level winds should prevent significant development before this 
system moves inland over the central Gulf Coast later tonight or on 
Monday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
are expected to continue across portions of the central Gulf Coast 
and will spread across the southeast U.S. during the next day or so. 
Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be 
found in products issued by your local National Weather Service 
Forecast Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the 
Weather Prediction Center. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I hope we have 500 tropical cyclones around the globe, 0 hit land, cool the atmosphere so much that world wide we are -5° for the winter season.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I hope we have 500 tropical cyclones around the globe, 0 hit land, cool the atmosphere so much that world wide we are -5° for the winter season.

You can’t let me have one cat two cane with a tractor tire eye that rolls over some sparsely populated, but chaseable land?

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I hope we have 500 tropical cyclones around the globe, 0 hit land, cool the atmosphere so much that world wide we are -5° for the winter season.

It's worthless without the PNA though.

[WxWatcher007]

Unsurprisingly, the NOAA hurricane season forecast still calls for another above active season.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season
 

We will have our first quiet May since 2014 but I do think we’ll have a window in early June for our first named storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

Cat 3 into Point Lookout, then hook left into IAD. Stall it there for 18 hours then loop it back due east slowly or this season's a bust.

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 5/23/2022 at 11:43 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

It's worthless without the PNA though.

True. It might bring a -5° Nina though and drive some people over the edge

[yoda]

12z GFS was

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z GFS was

When isn’t it?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

12z GFS was

Euro develops that area we were discussing a while back in the EPAC and drives it north into the Gulf as a trough scoops it up. 

GFS is wild this time of year lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS is wild this time of year lol

No offense, lol, but have you seen it during winter? 

[WxWatcher007]

9 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No offense, lol, but have you seen it during winter? 

 

[kgottwald]

On 5/23/2022 at 11:33 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

You can’t let me have one cat two cane with a tractor tire eye that rolls over some sparsely populated, but chaseable land?

Or even better, a few Pacific tropical storms that drench Southern California and end the drought.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Or even better, a few Pacific tropical storms that drench Southern California and end the drought.

Google Sam Kinison, Ethiopia 

[WxWatcher007]

Both the Euro and GFS have an increasingly legitimate signal for TC genesis in this the Gulf and/or SW Atlantic next week.

[CAPE]

 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s likely a legit signal at this point but there’s still a ton to sort out on where TC genesis occurs. Both ensembles spin something up. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. 
Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system 
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Vice-Regent]

[WxWatcher007]

Still substantial uncertainty over how organized a circulation we see after the now rapidly intensifying Agatha crosses into the Atlantic, but here’s an excellent plot by Michael Lowry on what climo tracks have looked like for the development zone. Unlikely the name stays the same as guidance rips it apart over land.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS tropical storm probs for early next week.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EZ EPS low positions 2am Monday and 2pm Monday 

[WxWatcher007]

Something’s likely coming, and it’s likely to be sloppy (mostly) fitting with climo. It’s unclear whether the system will stay out to sea after Florida. I’d lean that way but still a lot to figure out. 
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from 
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move 
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the 
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter 
part of this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan 
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Papin