December 26-27 Storm Threat

[weathafella]

Well I won't be around to narrate the Euro. Taking Honey to the river to run and then some errands. Heading to our favorite cousins around 5 but will peek in before.

[dendrite]

The flag on the NAM is the MOS product brings waraning snows back to western MA.

MET and MAV both have 8's 12z/26-12z/27 all the way up here to LCI too.

[weathafella]

GEFS will be way more amped based on the look at 30 hours.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's interesting. Even the UK looks ready to close that low awfully far south.

Yes, very close to a different solution.

The flag on the NAM is the MOS product brings waraning snows back to western MA.

What's the exact relation between the two again? I know you really like the MOS.

The east outliers on the Monday system are probably a tick west of where they were at this point Monday. The western systems in that event are further west, all bodes well I think.

Thanks for the map, UK is much more interesting than it appeared at first glance.

[CT Rain]

Can't wait to get to work and load up the GFS bufkit soundings. Can't here at home on the macbook.

[MarkO]

With most models coming west, the ECM has to come west, doesn't it? I'm thinking 75-80% chance we see it come west. Am I way off or what?

[weathafella]

GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP

[DomNH]

With most models coming west, the ECM has to come west, doesn't it? I'm thinking 75-80% chance we see it come west. Am I way off or what?

The Doctor generally does what it wants, at least from my experience.

[CT Rain]

From BOX

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

[WeatherX]

GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP

Major move by the GEFS west!!

[weathafella]

What's the exact relation between the two again? I know you really like the MOS.

I think when it appears a lock for a big storm and snow numbers are low, there's something going on such as poor snow growth, a warm layer not seen...slop, etc. In both of these cases, snow numbers are high but lower on the Cape although on MAV (GFS), even HYA gets 6+. Everyone west of the canal is 8+

[dendrite]

From BOX

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

Uhoh...heartbroken weenies.

[Boston-winter08]

GGEM is west; storm-related precip finally into Mass. (not as much OES)

[weatherwiz]

Can't wait to get to work and load up the GFS bufkit soundings. Can't here at home on the macbook.

GFS bufkit gives .7'' QPF total at BDL at has sfc winds between 20-30 kts with 30 to 40 knots around 1K.

[MarkO]

The Doctor generally does what it wants, at least from my experience.

I agree Dom. Ususally the rest play follow the leader.... but we're getting down to the wire here.

[CT Rain]

Uhoh...heartbroken weenies.

lol i know

I didn't see anything in NCEPs discussion so I wonder what it is.

[weathafella]

GEFS bring it just inside or right over the BM.

[DomNH]

Uhoh...heartbroken weenies.

We haven't had our hearts broken by initialization errors before...unique way to get fooked.

[skierinvermont]

GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP

Wow - great news. That was key since they have been quite consistent.. they didn't really budge even when the OP came west at 00z

[MaineJayhawk]

From BOX

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

That whistling sound you hear is the air being let out of the weenies.

[SnowMan]

Big, Huge Dryslot on this. SE Ma would have a brief change over. Who cares... Nirvana.

What about the North Shore? Mixing there?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

From BOX

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

It's not on the diagnostic discussion yet, but the rumor is there were significant datapoint issues. Total rumor, but might explain how all the other models are still a miss.

[DomNH]

GEFS bring it just inside or right over the BM.

Nice .

[Wx4cast]

UK huge miss! Maps to follow.

[weatherwiz]

Uhoh...heartbroken weenies.

Merry Christmas from Santa

[Boston-winter08]

lol i know

I didn't see anything in NCEPs discussion so I wonder what it is.

are those just the 06z runs, or is the 12z GFS included?

[skierinvermont]

From BOX

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM

AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE

HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS

WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE

BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM

HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS

MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE

THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY

BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO

THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO

WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR

CHANGES.

Any idea what the initialization problems were?

[OKpowdah]

If the GEFS are way west too, that's gotta be some hint that there's more to it than an initialization error though ... right?

[weathafella]

What about the North Shore? Mixing there?

You go over to rain for most of the storm...sorry...

[weathafella]

I'm being a d*ckhead...time for coffee.