weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well I won't be around to narrate the Euro. Taking Honey to the river to run and then some errands. Heading to our favorite cousins around 5 but will peek in before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The flag on the NAM is the MOS product brings waraning snows back to western MA. MET and MAV both have 8's 12z/26-12z/27 all the way up here to LCI too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS will be way more amped based on the look at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 It's interesting. Even the UK looks ready to close that low awfully far south. Yes, very close to a different solution. The flag on the NAM is the MOS product brings waraning snows back to western MA. What's the exact relation between the two again? I know you really like the MOS. The east outliers on the Monday system are probably a tick west of where they were at this point Monday. The western systems in that event are further west, all bodes well I think. Thanks for the map, UK is much more interesting than it appeared at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can't wait to get to work and load up the GFS bufkit soundings. Can't here at home on the macbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 With most models coming west, the ECM has to come west, doesn't it? I'm thinking 75-80% chance we see it come west. Am I way off or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 With most models coming west, the ECM has to come west, doesn't it? I'm thinking 75-80% chance we see it come west. Am I way off or what? The Doctor generally does what it wants, at least from my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP Major move by the GEFS west!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What's the exact relation between the two again? I know you really like the MOS. I think when it appears a lock for a big storm and snow numbers are low, there's something going on such as poor snow growth, a warm layer not seen...slop, etc. In both of these cases, snow numbers are high but lower on the Cape although on MAV (GFS), even HYA gets 6+. Everyone west of the canal is 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Uhoh...heartbroken weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GGEM is west; storm-related precip finally into Mass. (not as much OES) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Can't wait to get to work and load up the GFS bufkit soundings. Can't here at home on the macbook. GFS bufkit gives .7'' QPF total at BDL at has sfc winds between 20-30 kts with 30 to 40 knots around 1K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Doctor generally does what it wants, at least from my experience. I agree Dom. Ususally the rest play follow the leader.... but we're getting down to the wire here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Uhoh...heartbroken weenies. lol i know I didn't see anything in NCEPs discussion so I wonder what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS bring it just inside or right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Uhoh...heartbroken weenies. We haven't had our hearts broken by initialization errors before...unique way to get fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS ensembles are moving to supporting a strong position....similar to OP Wow - great news. That was key since they have been quite consistent.. they didn't really budge even when the OP came west at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. That whistling sound you hear is the air being let out of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Big, Huge Dryslot on this. SE Ma would have a brief change over. Who cares... Nirvana. What about the North Shore? Mixing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. It's not on the diagnostic discussion yet, but the rumor is there were significant datapoint issues. Total rumor, but might explain how all the other models are still a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GEFS bring it just inside or right over the BM. Nice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 UK huge miss! Maps to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Uhoh...heartbroken weenies. Merry Christmas from Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 lol i know I didn't see anything in NCEPs discussion so I wonder what it is. are those just the 06z runs, or is the 12z GFS included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 From BOX SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES. Any idea what the initialization problems were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 If the GEFS are way west too, that's gotta be some hint that there's more to it than an initialization error though ... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 What about the North Shore? Mixing there? You go over to rain for most of the storm...sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm being a d*ckhead...time for coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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