leesun Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM would have been a lot closer to the 12z GFS minus the convective feedback, ] 100% agree and I think everyone is saying that too. With the last system there were always a few outliers in the SREF members, GEFs etc that delivered blizzards like this. I can never, ever recall a situation in which the RGEM/NAM were weaker and east while the GFS had a bomb. It just is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEEPSTUFF Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Holy Blizzard Batman! Too bad that this keeps fluctuating between Blizzard and Flizzard. Need this to show up as is the next 2-3 runs now. But, signs are good for some good sledding weather with the kiddies this week. Call it the Christmas miracle? BTW, to whomever got this board back up and running from the old site, I thank you very much... This is not just a hobby, but following along is wildly entertaining. Each storm is like a full Red Sox season - ups, downs, excitement, dissapointment. At a minimum, great fun. So true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The Op has waffled back and forth the past 4 runs, this run being even more extreme than the 00z. The Ensemble mean has held pretty constant though, so what will be telling is if that comes west too, especially if it comes west in a major way. I'd expect at least a nudge west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I wonder what some TV mets will say at the 12 pm news? Chance for 0-18" The words "stay tuned" will be used by ALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 *like* Hey there! I remember you had some good posts over at Eastern. Welcome to AmericanWx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thats why I'm not really skeptic... Euro showed this exact solution a couple of days ago. Will, If the euro comes west is it game on for sure? I was just thinking that. So in a way there is some model agreement here. Going to be fun to watch the Euro come in. I'm out to take advantage of a pretty nice day. (33/18 sunny) Clean the garage then some pond skating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On a handheld on plane...qpf con??? Can't see map thx 1-1.25... more SE of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 On a handheld on plane...qpf con??? Can't see map thx Looks to be close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 man it gets pretty warm for BOS around hr 66. Is this the part where i go from a Mod storm,to a wind drivin rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Nam showewd way more energy backside of trof right? But didn't translate due to fdbk? Gfs better at this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This is NOT the final solution. I doubt its going within the bm. At or outside of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is this the part where i go from a Mod storm,to a wind drivin rain? The W NE weenies sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Off to the People's Republic of Patheticut to visit the outlaws. WHOOOO HOOO... will be checking this on the ride down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I love how the GFS gets trashed but when it shows solutions people like they stick to it like a parasite but when it shows an unfavorable solution it must be thrown out. Honestly I don't see that as the case at all. Will/Scott/Ryan and about everyone else has said wait and see. I don't think anyone is buying it without support. Everyone argues the EC is superior to the GFS and at about this range on the last system it started to take over. Same goes for the retro trough. If it really supports the GFS time to get the shovels greased and my raincoat out. Otherwise..... NOGAPS no changes from 0z, still a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 How were the Euro ens last night compared to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Thats why I'm not really skeptic... Euro showed this exact solution a couple of days ago. Will, If the euro comes west is it game on for sure? And therein lies a problem of believing this run. The Euro bailed on this idea 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is this the part where i go from a Mod storm,to a wind drivin rain? It's pretty much sn, except for a few hrs verbatim. Even so, gfs may be a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Is this the part where i go from a Mod storm,to a wind drivin rain? Not gonna happen.....and if it does I'm crashing Ray's party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The W NE weenies sure hope so. Your hoping i see rain,as much as i'm hoping you see a T-1" lol. Same boat different ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Off to the People's Republic of Patheticut to visit the outlaws. WHOOOO HOOO... will be checking this on the ride down. Happy holidays to you and your family. ___ Nogaps for sake of history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z NAM bumped west... SREF probabilities went up as well SNE-wide. The NAM is nothing like the GFS with the early phase. The GFS looks like the Euro from 2 days ago... haven't really seen any solution like it since (save 1 or 2 GFS ensemble members). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think this is just a case of literally a simple thing as a piece of energy in one position rather than the other causes a 12-18 inch storm rather than cloudy skies. And we though this storm would be easier to track than the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z NAM bumped west... SREF probabilities went up as well SNE-wide. The NAM is nothing like the GFS with the early phase. The GFS looks like the Euro from 2 days ago... haven't really seen any solution like it since (save 1 or 2 GFS ensemble members). So you're saying there's a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Crazy Uncle remains way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Honestly I don't see that as the case at all. Will/Scott/Ryan and about everyone else has said wait and see. I don't think anyone is buying it without support. Everyone argues the EC is superior to the GFS and at about this range on the last system it started to take over. Same goes for the retro trough. If it really supports the GFS time to get the shovels greased and my raincoat out. Otherwise..... NOGAPS no changes from 0z, still a whiff. Oh definitely, if the Euro starts showing something similar to the GFS than it's certainly time to start putting a little more stock into the GFS's solution. It was pretty nice though to see the 12z GFS be rather consistent with last night's 0z run. If last night's Euro was west as well than it would definitely be time to get rather excited. (I'm talking about CT though...eastern MA folks should be VERY excited right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The NAM would have been a lot closer to the 12z GFS minus the convective feedback, if it had a track 125 miles west. ] Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Crazy Uncle remains way OTS. I really want to see another global model with an early phase. Otherwise we're back to the glancing blow storm threat. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z NAM bumped west... SREF probabilities went up as well SNE-wide. The NAM is nothing like the GFS with the early phase. The GFS looks like the Euro from 2 days ago... haven't really seen any solution like it since (save 1 or 2 GFS ensemble members). I could see that s/w energy coming in stronger on the backside, but that was wild..lol. I really don't think it can be taken seriously until the rest of the runs show it...even EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Crazy Uncle remains way OTS. Thats not good... What they hell is going on here? I know I usually say it... but this seriously might be the biggest run of the euro for the year. If it holds/west... game on... if it goes east..game off... simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Not gonna happen.....and if it does I'm crashing Ray's party. I hope so,any time I hear any metion of Ptype issues my stomach drops lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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