CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Messenger...yes it does get S of MTK but then scoots out just inside the BM. Classic track for a huge snow bomb for much of NE. It's about as good as it gets for the entirety of SNE. From Greenwich CT to Salisbury MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wondering if I get out of Logan Monday. My guess is a long delay in the clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When looking for where the CF might be, you have to factor in the orientation of the sfc contours....notice how they elongate from SW to NE at 54h...so while the low is only about 25-30 mi SE of Montak....the ageostrophic flow is really solidly north much further SE than you would think. Yeah the arc of lower pressures to the ene help. I just don't want it to go north, because that's a lot of marine fetch as the storm is moving due north. Luckily, we have the high in place. As much as this maybe woblles east..it could go nw even more..lol, but this may be the extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AND its going to stall out! or at least slow down lol. Maybe we'll see some thundersnow and you might be fantasizing some snowstorm severe weather lol (is that even possible? ) thundersnow would be pretty cool. I wonder if there is any potential for it. There is a ton of lift but I didn't check to see how unstable it was aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When looking for where the CF might be, you have to factor in the orientation of the sfc contours....notice how they elongate from SW to NE at 54h...so while the low is only about 25-30 mi SE of Montak....the ageostrophic flow is really solidly north much further SE than you would think. In this setup you would think any signficant penetration would be short lived...it would probably crash back pretty quick as the warm air gets pinched off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah you're right. What will be interesting is what kind of sneaky warm layers get in this thing as it stacks and occludes. This is assuming too the Euro is correct...which is a big assumption at this point. We have some guidance trying to track it that close and others a good 100 mi SE....the fickle nature of the 5h low with the deepening makes it a tough forecast. I don't think there will be hardly any areas that get threatened by the mid-level 0C line except Cape Cod, but even the 900mb warm tongue can often be too far inland in these. In an ideal setup for MBY, I'd love for Ray to be flirting with rain while I get 28" of snow with CF and upslope enhancement at the same time, but I think it will be a blizzard for E MA and I probably won't jackpot, somewhere over there will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey, Merry Christmas Everyone! It gon a snow a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Prob immediate N shore to interior se MA, then....Dec 2003 esc. Oh well.....even I can't bi*** right now. La Epic baby La Epic Merry KU Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In this setup you would think any signficant penetration would be short lived...it would probably crash back pretty quick and the warm air gets pinched off to the east. Yeah perhaps a few hours at most..if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah perhaps a few hours at most..if at all. Not even worth worrying about because it looks phenomenal. Mad props to the GFS. Lead the way on this one (today). Modelers at NCEP get a tip of the cap... forecasters not so much... but we all bust it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Will they go with blizzard watches or winter storm watches thats going to have to be something they really have to think about also i think I'd assume coastal zones would get one in E/SE MA/RI. I can't wait for all of the ASOS's to die in the +SN and 60kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Get some sleep folks. And plenty of sleep tomorrow night too. Sunday afternoon/night will be wild. I am hopeful to be outdoors if it's not too deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not even worth worrying about because it looks phenomenal. Mad props to the GFS. Lead the way on this one. Modelers at NCEP get a tip of the cap... forecasters not so much... but we all bust it happens. Funny thing is...the euro had it except for a few runs...I don't know why it's been having like 2-4 horrible runs around hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In this setup you would think any signficant penetration would be short lived...it would probably crash back pretty quick as the warm air gets pinched off to the east. Mets talking about penetration and Kevin in his nightcap with visions of Blizzards dancing in his head. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In this setup you would think any signficant penetration would be short lived...it would probably crash back pretty quick and the warm air gets pinched off to the east. Yeah that's why I brought up '78...it actualy had BOS get near freezing or even to 33F IIRC on the archived metars. But ti would crash back SE very fast. That's a classic look for E MA to jackpot with blizzard conditions. I love where I am right now, but I don't expect a jackpot yet, I think E MA is primed for it because they will flirt with the CF and the best forcing...which models often try to penetrate too far W in these setups where the sfc wind might be 040 but the ageostrophic flow is way opposite of that, and then as you close to within 12-24h of the event, they are ground zero and the models stop getting the 32F isotherm at the sfc as far inland as it does now. Attlehole to Ray looks pretty good in this setup. BOS might be terrific too if they can get a slight bit of ocean enhancement having it early enough int he season for delta-Ts to be good over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol are you excited yet Not even worth worrying about because it looks phenomenal. Mad props to the GFS. Lead the way on this one (today). Modelers at NCEP get a tip of the cap... forecasters not so much... but we all bust it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is assuming too the Euro is correct...which is a big assumption at this point. We have some guidance trying to track it that close and others a good 100 mi SE....the fickle nature of the 5h low with the deepening makes it a tough forecast. I don't think there will be hardly any areas that get threatened by the mid-level 0C line except Cape Cod, but even the 900mb warm tongue can often be too far inland in these. In an ideal setup for MBY, I'd love for Ray to be flirting with rain while I get 28" of snow with CF and upslope enhancement at the same time, but I think it will be a blizzard for E MA and I probably won't jackpot, somewhere over there will. Oh boy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW At 11:00 Geoff Fox showed 12"+ for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Funny thing is...the euro had it except for a few runs...I don't know why it's been having like 2-4 horrible runs around hr 96. yeah... Euro was balls out on this 3 days ago and it went poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah that's why I brought up '78...it actualy had BOS get near freezing or even to 33F IIRC on the archived metars. But ti would crash back SE very fast. That's a classic look for E MA to jackpot with blizzard conditions. I love where I am right now, but I don't expect a jackpot yet, I think E MA is primed for it because they will flirt with the CF and the best forcing...which models often try to penetrate too far W in these setups where the sfc wind might be 040 but the ageostrophic flow is way opposite of that, and then as you close to within 12-24h of the event, they are ground zero and the models stop getting the 32F isotherm at the sfc as far inland as it does now. Attlehole to Ray looks pretty good in this setup. BOS might be terrific too if they can get a slight bit of ocean enhancement having it early enough int he season for delta-Ts to be good over the water. Ooohhh....keep talkin' dirty to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One last thing before I call it a night - what's the best source to get a semi-accurate idea of the timing as the snow moves up the coast? Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bed time. Big storm on the way. 100% agreement and available ensembles as of now. Hard to imagine a fail but the door is always open a crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah that's why I brought up '78...it actualy had BOS get near freezing or even to 33F IIRC on the archived metars. But ti would crash back SE very fast. That's a classic look for E MA to jackpot with blizzard conditions. I love where I am right now, but I don't expect a jackpot yet, I think E MA is primed for it because they will flirt with the CF and the best forcing...which models often try to penetrate too far W in these setups where the sfc wind might be 040 but the ageostrophic flow is way opposite of that, and then as you close to within 12-24h of the event, they are ground zero and the models stop getting the 32F isotherm at the sfc as far inland as it does now. Attlehole to Ray looks pretty good in this setup. BOS might be terrific too if they can get a slight bit of ocean enhancement having it early enough int he season for delta-Ts to be good over the water. I know it's early about details, but if I can keep a steady snow..I'll be fine. I wonder if the dryslot gets close to se mass in this setup..you can see it in the qpf fields. Luckily, the mid level low develops south and seems to put a quick end to any nw movement of the dryslot. 040 wind is great for me. My only issue is if I go to 34 with a large isothermal layer a couple of thousand feet up and precip rate lightens up. Yeah it's early, but this is just the usual stuff I think about living near the water. If I had a glock to my head...I'd probably feel fine with all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Funny thing is...the euro had it except for a few runs...I don't know why it's been having like 2-4 horrible runs around hr 96. The inverse of the prior system...the two orgasmic runs were the hiccups....here the scrappers were. I knew we still had a shot when things went south yesterday and recognized that the east trend was over, but I admittedly started to grow more skiptical of how much we come come west after the "weenie gate" initialization schenannigans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not even worth worrying about because it looks phenomenal. Mad props to the GFS. Lead the way on this one (today). Modelers at NCEP get a tip of the cap... forecasters not so much... but we all bust it happens. Hey, Ryan... It's not a bust yet. But WOW, that's all I have to say! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Gotta say... I'm amazed. This is probably one of the bigger medium range busts I can remember since March 01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The inverse of the prior system...the two orgasmic runs were the hiccups....here the scrappers were. I knew we still had a shot when things went south yesterday and recognized that the east trend was over, but I admittedly started to grow more skiptical of how much we come come west after the "weenie gate" initialization schenannigans. I was saying to Will, that when things stabilized yesterday, I thought maybe some ticking west would be in the cards, but not this..lol. I think your area looks dam good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd assume coastal zones would get one in E/SE MA/RI. I can't wait for all of the ASOS's to die in the +SN and 60kt winds. :lmao: How true!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One last thing before I call it a night - what's the best source to get a semi-accurate idea of the timing as the snow moves up the coast? Much appreciated. PM the SnowNH guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey, Ryan... It's not a bust yet. But WOW, that's all I have to say! --Turtle lol well the data assimilation/initialization errors from HPC that they were harping on. They kept throwing out all of their own models and now the Euro/UK/GGEM agree. Need to have more faith in the red white and blue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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