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December 26-27 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah this seems too good..lol. I'm def waiting on the rest of the suite to come in.

How I went from jackpot to barely a flurry in 1 run is beyond me. Also shows how difficult it's going to be to resolve this thing on the models. Lower confidence than usual for sure this forecast.

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Probably overdone. But one thing we can acknowledge: NO EAST TREND FOR YOU!

The only difference between the NAM and GFS at 66 could well be the feedback that the guys pointed out causing it to displace the 500 further east. the GFS with the lower resolution may not be seeing this, and is not as effected.

OR it could be they're both right and somewhere in the middle will be the correct solution. We'll know in 2 days.

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Yeah this seems too good..lol. I'm def waiting on the rest of the suite to come in.

Yes, Going to need to see if all the others models at 12z shift west, The GFS ensembles when they come out are prob going to have a lot of memebers well west but we shall see, Should be telling.........

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Seriously, though. This is exciting, but I will not be caught into it yet. Too drastic to jump in with both feed. Give me some Ens, a side of Euro, and 18z NAM/GFS to eliminate the "burp" aspects that could very well be at play.

100% agree and I think everyone is saying that too.

With the last system there were always a few outliers in the SREF members, GEFs etc that delivered blizzards like this.

I can never, ever recall a situation in which the RGEM/NAM were weaker and east while the GFS had a bomb. It just is bizarre.

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Seriously, though. This is exciting, but I will not be caught into it yet. Too drastic to jump in with both feed. Give me some Ens, a side of Euro, and 18z NAM/GFS to eliminate the "burp" aspects that could very well be at play.

excellent reasoning

though i think we are getting into the range where the ops are becoming more important than the ensembles, unless the op is a massive outlier which would be a red flag.....correct if wrong.

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Holy Blizzard Batman! Too bad that this keeps fluctuating between Blizzard and Flizzard. Need this to show up as is the next 2-3 runs now. But, signs are good for some good sledding weather with the kiddies this week. Call it the Christmas miracle? BTW, to whomever got this board back up and running from the old site, I thank you very much... This is not just a hobby, but following along is wildly entertaining. Each storm is like a full Red Sox season - ups, downs, excitement, dissapointment. At a minimum, great fun.

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100% agree and I think everyone is saying that too.

With the last system there were always a few outliers in the SREF members, GEFs etc that delivered blizzards like this.

I can never, ever recall a situation in which the RGEM/NAM were weaker and east while the GFS had a bomb. It just is bizarre.

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