HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Load an up to date enhanced wv loop...it's a thing of beauty. Been staring at it for a while. Nice flow out of Canada. Can see the trough. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watch it, bub. I'm lurking here. Kidding. Hope you all have a great holiday. As for this storm... I think the NAM is about right now... perhaps a hint west/stronger towards the GFS. I'd like to see the Canadian come around a bit more... but it already made a huge jump and not exactly the best model. I think HPC is overplaying the errors/issues, so I wouldn't disregard the 00Z GFS. Still, I'm leaning closer to the NAM. I'm expecting the impending Euro to shift back west at least 75% of the way to the NAM. Whether or not it comes back all the way, who knows. Remember, the sweet spot for the Euro time-wise is not the 36-72hr forecast range. Don't expect it to be the best model right now... so, as long as it pulls back most of the way, I'm comfortable with a solution close to the NAM... major storm for S & E New England. Not sure the M.A. gets it, like the GFS shows... frankly, I'm flatly unsure there. Hehe....I saw you lurking when I made that comment. Nice to see you post a quick thought Gary. I was a snob/weenie in college when you used to do your thoughts in the 2000-2002 time range. I always read them at milliumweather. Brings back great memories. I tend to agree with your thoughts. Think the GFS may be a bit too amped up (but as you said...who knows for sure). My guess would be close to the NAM/GGEM/Ukie with a hint of GFS thrown in there. I mentioned it before that I would find it ironic if the GFS ended up too far NW in this and tricked the Mid-Atlantic that way versus the usual too far south times back in the day and then trended north. But we shall see. Thanks for sharing the thought again. Merry Christmas to you and friends/family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Load an up to date enhanced wv loop...it's a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah Eleanor, this is a tough one. I'm still wary of the "over trend". Sometimes the models will see something and then go nuts with it only to back off a bit the next run. But given its 60h out, we probably feel pretty good, but then again, we all felt pretty good about where this might go at 72h. This is definitely one of the toughest I've seen and one of the biggest model swings in recent times during a system as large as this. I was even reluctant to mention Jan 2005 at all even if it was a reference to the last time we'd have to go back and find a snowfall bigger than what 00z models are showing....because it could just go poof in 1 run and back to a run of the mill warning criteria event for eastern MA/RI with maybe a bigger impact on the Cape. I'm feeling pretty good about this one, but given how complex the phasing is and the way the models cannot seem to handle it, I'm definitely on guard. The spread on ensembles is still pretty big for this far out. (SREF anyway!!) BTW, Merry Christmas to you and everyone at the office!!! Yes, agree totally with you, Will. The huge swing at 12Z on the GFS really threw me for a loop, as it did the neighboring offices. We do have to be wary in case everything changes back. SREF looked rather interesting, but didn't get a close look before leaving the office last night. I did trend things up just a bit, at least with the POPs especially for the Cape and islands. Those trends have been consistent...bringing precip in. It's just how far inland and how much QPF (but isn't that usually the biggest problems??? <along with ptype>). It'll be interesting to see the EC (hey anybody have a good URL to see this?) and what it does. A very Merry Christmas to you and Megan!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro is going to deliver the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lolz this thread is such a classic. Merry Christmas to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Seriously? Probably have met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro def more amped up through 30 hours vs 42 on 12z. I dont think that is a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lolz this thread is such a classic. Merry Christmas to all! Merry Christmas Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THe only jumping now will be on higher snow totals v lower, vs a mix and change. The Great Christmas Blizzard of 2010..... Lock it up! Ec looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THe only jumping now will be on higher snow totals v lower, vs a mix and change. The Great Christmas Blizzard of 2010..... Lock it up! Ec looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow Craig ...good to see you. ...there is a name from the distant IRC past. Hope you get nailed like you used to in Jaffrey for all those years. Hi Eleanor!!! This is Craig Goedecke..former NWS Coop Observer and Skywarn spotter from Jaffrey...living in Hull Mass...400feet from the Atlantic side of the Ocean... give me a ring after Christmas...would love to chat with you...call me at 781-925-6357 home number....Miss ya much and great to see you here on American wx forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You younguns who do not remember Gary Gray. I learned so much from him on the old IRC back in the day, he is Millwx here SP... yup, still in the met field (thankfully... I know many fellow graduates who are doing computers or other stuff, since met jobs aren't exactly plentiful). I'm doing forecasting for a commodities trading firm... a complete change from my previous met career - which was writing software for weather satellite products and analysis. I've been doing this forecasting work for about five years, which is what spelled the end of my discussions/posts (conflict of interest... they forbid me to continue providing forecasts outside of work). Of course, I'm sure just posting about upcoming storms here on a wx forum would hardly be a breach... but I just stopped altogether cuz it was safer/easier. Anyway, I'm back in New England (SW CT) after a long stint in the Mid-Atl... cringing after missing last year in the Mid-Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like a classic at 36.....Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ugh server crapping again this is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard of 2010. Massive hit back to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 holy sh*t... .Euro is almost to Montauk with the low!!!! Suck it HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Much relieved to hear the euro is going west as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm holding my own version of midnight mass here...praying for the EC to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tucks it right inside BM before sending it ENE. Classic major blizzard for most of SNE and parts of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I knew it.....nw envelope....comgrats, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Crushed. Don't want it farther nw though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blizzard of 2010. Massive hit back to NYC. This shall forever be known as the Great Christmas Blizzard of 2010....coined by me a few hours ago. It's great to see the EC catch up to the other models. Looks like it fell in line after the JMA/RGEM and even the NOGAPs/Ukie. Had no place to go I guess. Probably scored better at 500mb though someone and will show to be the best model in this 5 day period somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0.75+ for all of MA,RI,CT,NH and most of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ok, absurdity (and trend), can stop now. k, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm holding my own version of midnight mass here...praying for the EC to be good. The good Lord listened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am in shock... every model shows the same thing now... 1-2' lock it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 forgive me for the pointless post...but this is unbelievable,,,just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone have early QPF estimates and/or mixing issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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